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2014

Finance Papers

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Financial Valuation Of Pbgc Insurance With Market-Implied Default Probabilities, Jules H. Van Binsbergen, Robert Novy-Marx, Joshua Rauh Jan 2014

Financial Valuation Of Pbgc Insurance With Market-Implied Default Probabilities, Jules H. Van Binsbergen, Robert Novy-Marx, Joshua Rauh

Finance Papers

In this paper, we use financial valuation techniques to measure the unfunded liabilities associated with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) single-employer pension insurance program. This is an alternative approach to the calculations of expected future PBGC payouts in the PBGC exposure reports. The PBGC insurance is akin to an exchange option, a financial instrument that allows a party to exchange one risky asset for another. Calculating the value of this option for each PBGC-covered plan provides a measure of the fair market price of the PBGC guarantee that is consistent with the finance principles of risk-neutral pricing. That is ...