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Finance and Financial Management

Murray State University

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Time Series Analysis: Forecasting Treasury Bill Interest Rates, Nadine P. Innes May 2019

Time Series Analysis: Forecasting Treasury Bill Interest Rates, Nadine P. Innes

Honors College Theses

A Treasury Bill is a short-term investment typically with a maturity date of 12 months or less that is backed by the Treasury Department of the United States government. Rates of return for Treasury Bills are constantly changing over time due to the constant change of demand from borrowers and supply from lenders. This study seeks to forecast treasury bill rates that mature in 3 months. Since actuaries employ their knowledge of mathematics and statistical methods to analyze the likelihood of future events and their possible financial repercussions, having a projection of future treasury bill rates can provide guidance to ...