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Full-Text Articles in Business
Using Multiple And Logistic Regression To Estimate The Median Will-Cost And Probability Of Cost And Schedule Overrun For Program Managers, Ryan C. Trudelle
Using Multiple And Logistic Regression To Estimate The Median Will-Cost And Probability Of Cost And Schedule Overrun For Program Managers, Ryan C. Trudelle
Theses and Dissertations
The main concern of a program manager is to manage the cost, schedule, and performance triad of a program. Historically, programs tend to meet the performance aspect at the expense of cost or schedule, or both. This research gives the acquisition community a set of tools that enables them to impartially analyze the cost and schedule of their programs, helping to mitigate these issues. Five regression models encompass this toolset; one to estimate the median program cost and four to identify the probability of realizing a given overrun. The cost model explains 81% of the variation in program acquisition using …
Determining The Optimal Work Breakdown Structure For Government Acquisition Contracts, Brian J. Fitzpatrick
Determining The Optimal Work Breakdown Structure For Government Acquisition Contracts, Brian J. Fitzpatrick
Theses and Dissertations
The optimal level of Government Contract Work Breakdown Structure (G-CWBS) reporting for the purposes of Earned Value Management was inspected. The G-Score Metric was proposed, which can quantitatively grade a G-CWBS, based on a new method of calculating an Estimate At Completion (EAC) cost for each reported element. A random program generator created in R replicated the characteristics of DOD program artifacts retrieved from the Cost Analysis Data Enterprise (CADE) system. The generated artifacts were validated as a population, however validation at the demographic combination level using an artificial neural network was inconclusive. Comparative WBS forms were created for a …
Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez
Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez
Theses and Dissertations
Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability (IOC).We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in …
Advancing Cost-Effective Readiness By Improving The Supply Chain Management Of Sparse, Intermittently-Demanded Parts, Gregory H. Gehret
Advancing Cost-Effective Readiness By Improving The Supply Chain Management Of Sparse, Intermittently-Demanded Parts, Gregory H. Gehret
Theses and Dissertations
Many firms generate revenue by successfully operating machines such as welding robots, rental cars, aircraft, hotel rooms, amusement park attractions, etc. It is critical that these revenue-generating machines be operational according to the firm s target or requirement; thus, assuring sustained revenue generation for the firm. Machines can and do fail, and in many cases, restoring the downed machine requires spare part(s), which are typically managed by the supply chain. The scope of this research is on the supply chain management of the very sparse, intermittently-demanded spare parts. These parts are especially difficult to manage because they have little to …
Using Earned Value Data To Detect Potential Problems In Acquisition Contracts, C. Grant Keaton
Using Earned Value Data To Detect Potential Problems In Acquisition Contracts, C. Grant Keaton
Theses and Dissertations
Government contractors report earned value (EV) information to government agencies in monthly Contract Performance Reports (CPR). Though major differences may exist in the data between subsequent CPRs, we know of no government effort to detect these occurrences. The identification of major changes may locate and isolate problems and thus prevent million and billion dollar cost and schedule overruns. In this study, we develop an approach to identify changes in the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) that may indicate problems with contract performance. We find the detection algorithm indentifies changes in the CPI and the SPI …
Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Leasing Versus Buying Air Force General Purpose Vehicles In The Continental United States, Robert J. Neal Jr.
Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Leasing Versus Buying Air Force General Purpose Vehicles In The Continental United States, Robert J. Neal Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
Given the increasingly aging vehicle fleet and declining vehicle budget, this research performed a cost-benefit analysis of leasing versus buying various Air Force general purpose vehicles for the entire continental United States (CONUS). In contrast to previous analyses, which have examined the leasing versus buying issue on a base-by-base basis, this analysis studies the issue from an Air Force-wide perspective using a cost-buying model. Costs and benefits are calculated for three purchasing options (Air Force ownership, GSA leasing, and commercial leasing) to determine and recommend the best alternative for the Air Force. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is to test the …
The Development Of Laser Cost Estimating Relationships (Cers) From Commercial Data, Michael J. Nolette, Steven L. Seeley
The Development Of Laser Cost Estimating Relationships (Cers) From Commercial Data, Michael J. Nolette, Steven L. Seeley
Theses and Dissertations
The Post Cold War acquisition environment has been marked by significant budget reductions and the greater use of commercial practices. In this austere and rapidly changing acquisition environment, accurate cost estimates are paramount to maximize the use of the DoD's critical resources. The advancement of laser technology has spawned a large variety of military laser applications such as the Airborne Laser (ABL), Space Based Laser (SBL) and a host of other smaller programs. Furthermore, the Air Force Laboratory's Directed Energy Applications for Tactical Airborne Combat (DEATAC) Study (the sponsoring activity of this thesis research) is considering a host of airborne …
An Exploratory Study Of The Use Of Parametric Estimating In Department Of Defense Contracting, Patricia Blakely, Rudolph Haynesworth
An Exploratory Study Of The Use Of Parametric Estimating In Department Of Defense Contracting, Patricia Blakely, Rudolph Haynesworth
Theses and Dissertations
An initiative to expand the use of parametric estimating in government contracting has enjoyed only marginal success. Some reasons for the slower pace of implementation are the lack of availability of historical data, training, acquisition rules, utility, and accuracy concerns. Those associated with the Parametric Cost Estimating Initiative (PCEI) have a higher perception of parametric utility and accuracy than those not associated with the initiative. The PCEI advocates using parametric techniques in any situation, not just the concept/development phases advocated by most literature. Parametric estimating is a catch all term for several different types of statistically based methodologies, ranging from …