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Articles 1 - 30 of 370
Full-Text Articles in Business
Siphoned Apart: A Portfolio Perspective On Order Flow Segmentation, Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner, Bart Zhou Yueshen
Siphoned Apart: A Portfolio Perspective On Order Flow Segmentation, Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner, Bart Zhou Yueshen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study liquidity supply in fragmented markets. Market makers intermediate heterogeneous order flows, trading off spread revenue against inventory costs. Applying our model to payment for order flow (PFOF), we demonstrate that portfolio-based considerations of inventory management incentivize market makers to segment retail orders by siphoning them off-exchange. Banning order flow segmentation reduces total welfare, can make trading more costly for all investors, and can resolve a prisoner's dilemma among market makers. These results differentiate our inventory-based model from the existing information-based theories of PFOF.
Investing In Climate: A Role For 'Sovereign Climate Funds', Marianna Kozintseva, Thierry Wizman
Investing In Climate: A Role For 'Sovereign Climate Funds', Marianna Kozintseva, Thierry Wizman
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Efforts to address climate change have generally been focused on deploying mitigation technologies. However, it is adaptation technologies (and climate risk transfer) that will have to gain an increasing share of an investment pool dedicated to climate if human systems are to stay resilient to climate forces. Just like mitigation projects, adaptation projects have a strong public goods aspect, wherein public returns exceed private returns, and thus call for the state’s involvement. We argue that sovereign climate funds (SCFs) - new types of sovereign wealth funds with a climate investment mandate - can be critical purpose-built conduits especially for undertaking …
Diverse Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Diverse Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Hedge fund teams with heterogeneous educational backgrounds, academic specializations, work experiences, genders, and races, outperform homogeneous teams after adjusting for risk and fund characteristics. An event study of manager team transitions, instrumental variable regressions, and an analysis of managers who simultaneously operate solo- and team-managed funds address endogeneity concerns. Diverse teams deliver superior returns by arbitraging more stock anomalies, avoiding behavioral biases, and minimizing downside risks. Moreover, diversity allows hedge funds to circumvent capacity constraints and generate persistent performance. Our results suggest that diversity adds value in asset management. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the …
What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang
What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper compares the Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model with the Fama-French five-factor model from an investing perspective both in- and out-of-sample. Without margin requirements and model uncertainty, the Hou-Xue-Zhang model outperforms the Fama-French model. However, the outperformance could become negligible if an investor is subject to margin requirements and model uncertainty. The Hou-Xue-Zhang model shows similar power as the Fama-French model in describing the covariance matrix of asset returns. Overall, the two models do not make a difference for investing in a realistic setting.
The Economic Value Of Blockchain Applications: Early Evidence From Asset-Backed Securities, Xia Chen, Qiang Cheng, Ting Luo
The Economic Value Of Blockchain Applications: Early Evidence From Asset-Backed Securities, Xia Chen, Qiang Cheng, Ting Luo
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
In this paper, we evaluate the economic value of a blockchain application. In the context of asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance in China, where some ABS are issued with blockchain technology and others are not, we find that the use of blockchain significantly reduces the coupon yield at issuance. Compared with other ABS, those issued using blockchain technology experience a decrease of 31.4 basis points in the yield spread, which corresponds to a relative decrease of 13%. We further document that the effect of blockchain is more pronounced for ABS deals rated by less reputable credit rating agencies and agencies that …
Derivatives And Market (Il)Liquidity, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Cheng Zhang
Derivatives And Market (Il)Liquidity, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Cheng Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study how derivatives (with nonlinear payoffs) affect the underlying assets liquidity. In a rational expectations equilibrium, informed investors expect low conditional volatility and sell derivatives to the others. These derivative trades affect different investors utility differently, possibly amplifying liquidity risk. As investors delta hedge their derivative positions, price impact in the underlying drops, suggesting improved liquidity, because informed trading is diluted. In contrast, effects on price reversal are ambiguous, depending on investors relative delta hedging sensitivity, i.e., the gamma of the derivatives. The model cautions of potential disconnections between illiquidity measures and liquidity risk premium due to derivatives trading.
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …
Is Anti-Herding Always A Smart Choice? Evidence From Mutual Funds, John Byong-Tek Lee, Jun Ma, Dimitris Margaritis, Wanyi Yang
Is Anti-Herding Always A Smart Choice? Evidence From Mutual Funds, John Byong-Tek Lee, Jun Ma, Dimitris Margaritis, Wanyi Yang
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Recent empirical studies document a negative relation between herding behaviour and the skill of mutual fund managers. We explore this relationship further by focusing on fund managers' contrarian buy and sell behaviour against the market. Our study reveals an asymmetry in the performance of mutual funds with contrarian buy behaviour and contrarian sell behaviour. The contrarian-buy behaviour reflects skill by positively predicting the cross-section of next period's mutual fund returns, while the contrarian-sell behaviour reflects a lack of skill associated with a negative prediction. These findings are robust to various risk-adjusted performance measures. Contrarian-buy funds outperform momentum-buy funds by 3% …
Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …
Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Jeremy C. Goh, Lisa (Zongfei) Yang
Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Jeremy C. Goh, Lisa (Zongfei) Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead–manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared with other non-self-marketed offerings. These findings are robust across various matched samples and selection models. Our results suggest that the bond offering process is characterized by substantive agency conflicts between shareholders of corporations (issuers) and underwriters.
Who Profits From Trading Options?, Jianfeng Hu, Antonia Kirilova, Gilbert Seongkyu Park, Doojin. Ryu
Who Profits From Trading Options?, Jianfeng Hu, Antonia Kirilova, Gilbert Seongkyu Park, Doojin. Ryu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We use account-level transaction data to examine trading styles and profitability in a leading derivatives market. Approximately 66% of active retail investors predominantly hold simple, one-sided positions in only one class of options, whereas institutional investors are more likely to use complex strategies. Hypothesizing that the complexity of trading styles reflects investors' skills, we examine the effect of options trading styles on investment performance. We find that retail investors using simple strategies lose to the rest of the market. For both retail and institutional investors, selling volatility is the most successful strategy. We conclude that these style effects are persistent …
Intrafirm Knowledge Sharing In The Investment Research Industry, Artur Hugon, An-Ping Lin, Stanimir Markov
Intrafirm Knowledge Sharing In The Investment Research Industry, Artur Hugon, An-Ping Lin, Stanimir Markov
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We study interdepartment knowledge sharing in an investment research setting where the benefits are potentially significant for the brokerage and the capital market, but so are the frictions impeding it. Using hand-collected data on equity analyst access to in-house debt research expertise, we find significant benefits to equity analysts in the form of improved ability to forecast cash flows and to anticipate credit rating downgrades. Moreover, we find evidence that access to management and research expertise underlie in-house debt analysts' capacity to generate information beneficial to equity analysts. Finally, these benefits exist only in the presence of a collaborative brokerage …
Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive?, Thomas Ernst, Chester Spatt, Jian Sun
Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive?, Thomas Ernst, Chester Spatt, Jian Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We model two different methods of executing segregated retail orders: broker's routing, whereby brokers allocate orders using market maker's overall performance, and order-by-order auctions, where market makers bid on individual orders, a recent SEC proposal. Order-by-order auctions improve market maker allocative efficiency, but face a winner's curse reducing retail investor welfare, particularly when liquidity is limited. Additional market participants competing for retail orders fail to improve total efficiency and investor welfare when entrants possess information superior to incumbent wholesalers. Existing Retail Liquidity Programs empirically suggest order-by-order auctions would attract few bidders in less liquid stocks and low-liquidity periods.
Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen
Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article examines the pricing of a firm’s carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the “carbon risk premium” hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.
The Effect Of Social Skills On Analyst Performance, Cong Cong Li, An-Ping Lin, Hai Lu
The Effect Of Social Skills On Analyst Performance, Cong Cong Li, An-Ping Lin, Hai Lu
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Social skills are important but difficult to measure. So far, few empirical studies have examined the effect of social skills on the performance of professionals. Using the number of LinkedIn connections as a proxy for social skills, we investigate the effect of financial analysts' social skills on their performance. We use multiple ways to validate the measure of social skills and show that analysts with better social skills produce more accurate earnings forecasts and that their stock recommendations elicit stronger market reactions. Furthermore, these socially skilled analysts are more likely to be voted as All-Star Analysts. This study provides the …
A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu
A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …
Price Comovement And Market Segmentation Of Chinese A- And H-Shares: Evidence From A Panel Latent-Factor Model, Yingjie Dong, Wenxin Huang, Yiu Kuen Tse
Price Comovement And Market Segmentation Of Chinese A- And H-Shares: Evidence From A Panel Latent-Factor Model, Yingjie Dong, Wenxin Huang, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the price comovement of cross-listed Chinese A- and H-shares using a panel model with latent factors and a heterogeneous long-run structure. Our model is more flexible than the cointegration system and is estimated using the data-driven Cup–Lasso method. The long-run H-share price discounts are heterogeneous across different groups of stocks. We have identified both stationary and nonstationary latent factors in the price differentials, which are driven by different economic variables. By analyzing the factor loadings of the nonstationary latent factor, we identify some trading-friction and information-friction variables that have effects on the price convergence between the A- …
Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei
Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study the importance of peer effects among sell-side analysts who work at the same brokerage house, but cover different firms. By mapping the information network within each brokerage, we identify analysts who occupy central positions in their network. Central analysts incorporate more information from their coworkers and produce better research. Using shocks to network structures around brokerage mergers, we identify the influence of peer effects and the importance of industry expertise on analysts’ performance. A portfolio strategy that exploits the forecast revisions of central analysts earns up to 24% per annum.
Simultaneous Multilateral Search, Sergei Glebkin, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Ji Shen
Simultaneous Multilateral Search, Sergei Glebkin, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Ji Shen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper studies simultaneous multilateral search (SMS) in over-the-counter markets: When searching, a customer simultaneously contacts several dealers and trades with the one offering the best quote. Higher search intensity (how often one can search) improves welfare, but higher search capacity (how many dealers one can contact) might be harmful. When the market is in distress, customers might inefficiently favor bilateral bargaining (BB) over SMS. Such a preference for BB speaks to the sluggish adoption of SMS trading, like request-for-quote protocols, in over-the-counter markets. Furthermore, a market-wide shift to SMS may not be socially optimal.
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …
Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo
Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Hedge funds that endorse the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) underperform other hedge funds after adjusting for risk but attract greater investor flows, accumulate more assets, and harvest greater fee revenues. Consistent with an agency explanation, the underperformance is driven by PRI signatories with low environmental, social, and governance (ESG) exposures and is greater for hedge funds with poor incentive alignment. To address endogeneity, we exploit regulatory reforms that enhance stewardship and show that the ESG exposure and relative performance of signatory funds improve post reforms. Our findings suggest that some hedge funds endorse responsible investment to pander …
Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Hock Keong Ong
Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Hock Keong Ong
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This study analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. I find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, I employ an instrument variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization value of the host country where the PE fund is based. My results apply to Net IRR, multiple and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results …
Do Analysts’ Eps Forecasts Obey Benford’S Law? An Empirical Analysis, Clarence Goh
Do Analysts’ Eps Forecasts Obey Benford’S Law? An Empirical Analysis, Clarence Goh
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Benford’s law gives the expected frequencies of digits in tabulated data. In this study, I investigate the extent to which a sample of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts obey Benford’s law. I conduct Benford’s law’s second digit and last-two digits tests on a sample of analyst EPS forecasts of S&P 500 firms from 1998 to 2018. Overall, I find that analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s law’s second digit test but do not obey the last-two digits test. These findings suggest that while analysts do not engage in number invention, they do engage in rounding when making EPS forecasts.
The Effects Of Csr Reputation And Csr Crisis Response Strategy On Investor Judgments, Clarence Goh
The Effects Of Csr Reputation And Csr Crisis Response Strategy On Investor Judgments, Clarence Goh
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
I use a controlled experiment to examine, in the context of CSR crises, whether investors’ investment judgments are influenced by a firm’s CSR reputation and CSR crisis response strategy. I find that for good CSR reputation firms, the use of a rebuild or deny crisis response strategy does not lead to improvements in investment judgments. However, for bad CSR reputation firms, the use of a deny response strategy leads to improvements in investment judgments while the use of a rebuild strategy does not.
Cross-Industry Information Sharing Among Colleagues And Analyst Research, Allen Huang, An-Ping Lin, Amy Y. Zang
Cross-Industry Information Sharing Among Colleagues And Analyst Research, Allen Huang, An-Ping Lin, Amy Y. Zang
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We identify a specific organizational resource in brokerage housesdinformation sharing among analyst colleagues who cover economically related industries along a supply chain. After controlling for brokerage selection effects, we show evidence consistent with the benefit of this resource to analyst research performance. Specifically, we find that analysts whose colleagues cover more economically connected industries have better research performance, especially when their colleagues produce higher-quality research. We further show that colleagues' coverage of downstream (upstream) industries is positively related to the accuracy of only analysts' revenue (expense) forecasts and that analysts and their highly connected colleagues tend to issue earnings forecast …
Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Width-To-Height Ratio And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Melvyn Teo
Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Width-To-Height Ratio And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
An abundance of evidence relates facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) to masculine behaviors in males. We show that hedge funds operated by high-fWHR managers underperform those operated by low-fWHR managers, bear greater downside risk, are more susceptible to fire sales, and fail more often. High-fWHR managers compensate for their underperformance by marketing their funds more aggressively, thereby garnering higher flows and fee revenues. By exploiting major personal events that shape testosterone, namely marriage and fatherhood, we trace the biological mechanism underlying the relation between fWHR and investment performance to circulating testosterone. Our findings are robust and extend to equity mutual funds.
Information Acquisition And Expected Returns: Evidence From Edgar Search Traffic, Frank Weikai Li, Chengzhu Sun
Information Acquisition And Expected Returns: Evidence From Edgar Search Traffic, Frank Weikai Li, Chengzhu Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines expected return information embedded in investors' information acquisition activity. Using a novel dataset containing investors' access of company filings through SEC's EDGAR system, we reverse engineer their expectations over future payoffs and show that the abnormal number of IPs searching for firms' financial statements strongly predict future returns. The return predictability stems from investors allocating more effort to firms with improving fundamentals and following exogeneous shock to underpricing. A long-short portfolio based on our measure of information acquisition activity generate monthly abnormal return of 80 basis points and does not reverse over the long-run.. In addition, the …
Short Sellers And Insider Trading Profitability: A Natural Experiment, Xia Chen, Qiang Cheng, Ting Luo, Heng Yue
Short Sellers And Insider Trading Profitability: A Natural Experiment, Xia Chen, Qiang Cheng, Ting Luo, Heng Yue
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We examine the impact of short sellers on insider trading profitability using a natural experiment of a pilot program which relaxed short-selling constraints for randomly selected pilot stocks. We find that pilot firms experienced a significant decrease in insider trading profitability during the pilot program. The results are more pronounced for the pilot firms with poor information quality, and for the pilot firms without corporate restrictions on insider trading. Our evidence suggests that short sellers serve an important market disciplinary role by reducing insider trading profitability.
Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang
Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using multiple short-sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short-sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with nonprohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.
Market Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence Prior To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-2009, Charlie Charoenwong, Kuan Yong David Ding, Ping Wang
Market Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence Prior To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-2009, Charlie Charoenwong, Kuan Yong David Ding, Ping Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Since the adoption of the SEC’s Rule 10b-21 in 1988, many researchers have been concerned over the effectiveness of short sales constraints in preventing manipulative trading in the derivatives market. We analyze whether options can be used as synthetic short sale instruments to manipulate stock prices before a seasoned equity offer. Due to the existence of strict short sales constraints in the equity market and market makers’ anticipation of manipulative trading, it would be very costly for a manipulator to drive stock prices down artificially either by short selling in the equity market or by using synthetic short sales in …