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Forecasting Demand For Optimal Inventory With Long Lead Times: An Automotive Aftermarket Case Study, Chris Anderson

Dissertations

Accuracy in predicting customer demand is essential to building an economic inventory policy under periodic review, long lead-time, and a target fill rate. This study uses inventory and customer service level as a stock control metric to evaluate the forecast accuracy of different simple to more complex predictive analytical techniques. We show how traditional forecast error measures are inappropriate for inventory control, despite their consistent usage in many studies, by evaluating demand forecast performance dynamically with customer service level as a stock control metric that includes inventory holdings costs, stock out costs, and fill rate service levels. A second contribution …