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A Hollow Victory And Unending Problem: The Undying Anti-Russian Insurgency In Ukraine, Abraham Ashley Jan 2023

A Hollow Victory And Unending Problem: The Undying Anti-Russian Insurgency In Ukraine, Abraham Ashley

MSU Graduate Theses

This thesis uses quantitative and qualitative research methods to: (1) explore the base causes of insurgency in Ukraine, (2) examine the historical basis for Ukrainian insurgency, (3) provide historical examples of successful and unsuccessful insurgencies to contrast against Ukraine, and (4) provide recommendations for NATO and Ukrainian policy. Collectively, this project demonstrates that current Russian counterinsurgency tactics will not be successful without significant adjustment. This Ukrainian insurgency may also derail the possibility of peace in the region.


Toward Successful Coin: Shining Path’S Decline, Darren Colby May 2021

Toward Successful Coin: Shining Path’S Decline, Darren Colby

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The rapid decline of the Peruvian left-wing insurgent organization Sendero Luminoso was not only the result of the arrest of its leader. An analysis of the precipitous weakening of the organization using two social movement theories finds other factors were involved in the demise of the organization as well. These factors—participatory politics, support for the military among the rural population, and alienation of the population by Sendero Luminoso—provide insights to effective counterinsurgency tactics.


Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason May 2021

Coin Doctrine Is Wrong, M. Chris Mason

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Counterinsurgency does not increase the legitimacy of, or support for, central governments engaged in internal conflicts. Recent research shows quantifiable degrees of government legitimacy, national identity, and population security are necessary precursors and accurate predictors of a government’s ability to outlast a civil uprising. Because the first two predictors—government legitimacy and national identity—can be measured and do not increase during a conflict, the probability of government failure in most cases can be accurately predicted when the conflict starts.


Diabolus Ex Machina? A Comparative Case Study To Test Whether Automatic Weapons Can Disproportionately Benefit Irregular Forces, Harrison Durland Dec 2020

Diabolus Ex Machina? A Comparative Case Study To Test Whether Automatic Weapons Can Disproportionately Benefit Irregular Forces, Harrison Durland

Honors Theses

Researchers in the field of irregular conflict have observed that irregular forces such as insurgents and guerrillas have been victorious or forced draws in a greater percentage of conflicts over the past century compared with the century prior. More generally, researchers and practitioners have sought to better understand why seemingly weaker, irregular forces are able to win some wars against enemies who have significant material and other conventional advantages. This thesis engages with some of the literature in this field and focuses on what appears to be a particularly understudied issue: the potential role of shifts/innovations in military technology. Specifically, …


Analysis Of Nation-Building During Insurgency In U.S. Defense Policy Strategy, Joseph Valles Dec 2019

Analysis Of Nation-Building During Insurgency In U.S. Defense Policy Strategy, Joseph Valles

MSU Graduate Theses

U.S. defense policy has often relied on a strategy of nation-building to reform the local government and address the root causes of the instability in a given nation or region. This strategy has, in recent years, been criticized for being ineffective and a wasteful drain on American resources. This paper will determine if such criticism is valid by analyzing the performance of four security environments where such a strategy was used: Vietnam, El Salvador, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The paper will determine if such a strategy was effective in these conflicts by analyzing the progress of reforms and, when possible, the …


The Internet, New Media, And The Evolution Of Insurgency, Steven Metz Sep 2012

The Internet, New Media, And The Evolution Of Insurgency, Steven Metz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.