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 Finitely additive probability (2)
 Coherence (2)
 Infinite expectation (1)
 Conglomerable probability (1)
 Necessary evils (1)

 Unbounded random variables (1)
 Foundations of mathematics (1)
 Bayesian networks (1)
 Expressive theory (1)
 Dominance (1)
 Frugality (1)
 Proof theory (1)
 Daniell integral (1)
 Prevision (1)
 Bayesian inference (1)
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 Hilbert’s program (1)
 Taskeffects (1)
 Layoff (1)
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 Learning (1)
Articles 1  13 of 13
FullText Articles in Arts and Humanities
Imprecise Probability: Theories And Applications (Isipta'13), Fabio Cozman, Sebastien Destercke, Teddy Seidenfeld
Imprecise Probability: Theories And Applications (Isipta'13), Fabio Cozman, Sebastien Destercke, Teddy Seidenfeld
Department of Philosophy
This special issue of the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (IJAR) grew out of the 8th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA'13). The symposium was organized by the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA) at the Université de Technologie de Compiègne (France) in July 2013 (http://www.sipta.org/isipta13). The biennial ISIPTA meetings are well established among international conferences on generalized methods for uncertainty quantification. The first ISIPTA took place in Gent in 1999, followed by meetings in Cornell, Lugano, Carnegie Mellon, Prague, Durham and Innsbruck. Compiègne proved to be a very nice ...
A Uniformly Consistent Estimator Of Causal Effects Under The KkTriangleFaithfulness Assumption, Peter Spirtes, Jiji Zhang
A Uniformly Consistent Estimator Of Causal Effects Under The KkTriangleFaithfulness Assumption, Peter Spirtes, Jiji Zhang
Department of Philosophy
Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines [Causation, Prediction, and Search (1993) Springer] described a pointwise consistent estimator of the Markov equivalence class of any causal structure that can be represented by a directed acyclic graph for any parametric family with a uniformly consistent test of conditional independence, under the Causal Markov and Causal Faithfulness assumptions. Robins et al. [Biometrika 90 (2003) 491–515], however, proved that there are no uniformly consistent estimators of Markov equivalence classes of causal structures under those assumptions. Subsequently, Kalisch and Bühlmann [J. Mach. Learn. Res. 8 (2007) 613–636] described a uniformly consistent estimator of the Markov ...
Learning With A Purpose: The Influence Of Goals, Sarah Wellen, David Danks
Learning With A Purpose: The Influence Of Goals, Sarah Wellen, David Danks
Department of Philosophy
Most learning models assume, either implicitly or explicitly, that the goal of learning is to acquire a complete and veridical representation of the world, but this view assumes away the possibility that pragmatic goals can play a central role in learning. We propose instead that people are relatively frugal learners, acquiring goalrelevant information while ignoring goalirrelevant features of the environment. Experiment 1 provides evidence that learning is goaldependent, and that people are relatively (but not absolutely) frugal when given a specific, practical goal. Experiment 2 investigates possible mechanisms underlying this effect, and finds evidence that people exhibit goaldriven attention allocation ...
Natural Models Of Homotopy Type Theory, Steve Awodey
Natural Models Of Homotopy Type Theory, Steve Awodey
Department of Philosophy
The notion of a natural model of type theory is defined in terms of that of a representable natural transfomation of presheaves. It is shown that such models agree exactly with the concept of a category with families in the sense of Dybjer, which can be regarded as an algebraic formulation of type theory. We determine conditions for such models to satisfy the inference rules for dependent sums Σ, dependent products Π, and intensional identity types Id, as used in homotopy type theory. It is then shown that a category admits such a model if it has a class of ...
A Heuristic Prover For Real Inequalities, Jeremy Avigad, Robert Y. Lewis, Cody Roux
A Heuristic Prover For Real Inequalities, Jeremy Avigad, Robert Y. Lewis, Cody Roux
Department of Philosophy
We describe a general method for verifying inequalities between realvalued expressions, especially the kinds of straightforward inferences that arise in interactive theorem proving. In contrast to approaches that aim to be complete with respect to a particular language or class of formulas, our method establishes claims that require heterogeneous forms of reasoning, relying on a NelsonOppenstyle architecture in which specialpurpose modules collaborate and share information. The framework is thus modular and extensible. A prototype implementation shows that the method is promising, complementing techniques that are used by contemporary interactive provers.
Dominating Countably Many Forecasts, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane
Dominating Countably Many Forecasts, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane
Department of Philosophy
We investigate differences between a simple Dominance Principle applied to sums of fair prices for variables and dominance applied to sums of forecasts for variables scored by proper scoring rules. In particular, we consider differences when fair prices and forecasts correspond to finitely additive expectations and dominance is applied with infinitely many prices and/or forecasts.
Topos Semantics For HigherOrder Modal Logic, Steve Awodey, Kohei Kishida, HansCristoph Kotzsch
Topos Semantics For HigherOrder Modal Logic, Steve Awodey, Kohei Kishida, HansCristoph Kotzsch
Department of Philosophy
We define the notion of a model of higherorder modal logic in an arbitrary elementary topos E. In contrast to the wellknown interpretation of (nonmodal) higherorder logic, the type of propositions is not interpreted by the subobject classifier ΩE , but rather by a suitable complete Heyting algebra H. The canonical map relating H and ΩE both serves to interpret equality and provides a modal operator on H in the form of a comonad. Examples of such structures arise from surjective geometric morphisms f : F → E, where H = f∗ΩF . The logic differs from nonmodal higherorder logic in that the principles ...
Proof Theory, Jeremy Avigad
Proof Theory, Jeremy Avigad
Department of Philosophy
Proof theory began in the 1920’s as a part of Hilbert’s program. That program aimed to secure the foundations of mathematics by modeling infinitary mathematics with formal axiomatic systems, and proving those systems consistent using restricted, “finitary” means. The program thus viewed mathematics as a system of reasoning with precise linguistic norms, governed by rules that can be described and studied in concrete terms. Such a viewpoint, today, has applications in mathematics, computer science, and the philosophy of mathematics.
Model Change And Methodological Virtues In Scientific Inference, Erich Kummerfeld, David Danks
Model Change And Methodological Virtues In Scientific Inference, Erich Kummerfeld, David Danks
Department of Philosophy
One persistent challenge in scientific practice is that the structure of the world can be unstable: changes in the broader context can alter which model of a phenomenon is preferred, all without any overt signal. Scientific discovery becomes much harder when we have a moving target, and the resulting incorrect understandings of relationships in the world can have significant realworld and practical consequences. In this paper, we argue that it is common (in certain sciences) to have changes of context that lead to changes in the relationships under study, but that standard normative accounts of scientific inquiry have assumed away ...
Learning, David Danks
Learning, David Danks
Department of Philosophy
Learning by artificial intelligence systemswhat I will typically call machine learninghas a distinguished history, and the field has experienced something of a renaissance in the past twenty years. Machine learning consists principally of a diverse set of algorithms and techniques that have been applied to problems in a wide range of domains. Any overview of the methods and applications will inevitably be incomplete, at least at the level of specific algorithms and techniques. There are many excellent introductions to the formal and statistical details of machine learning algorithms and techniques available elsewhere (e.g., Bishop, 1995; Duda, Hart, & Stork, 2000; Hastie, Tibshirani ...
A Modern Pascal's Wager For Mass Electronic Surveillance, David Danks
A Modern Pascal's Wager For Mass Electronic Surveillance, David Danks
Department of Philosophy
Debates about the moral permissibility of mass electronic surveillance often turn on whether consequentialist considerations legitimately trump relevant deontological rights and principles. In order to establish such overriding consequences, many proponents of mass surveillance employ a modern analogue of Pascal’s wager: they contend that the (negative) consequences of no surveillance are so severe that any probability of such outcomes legitimates the abrogation of the relevant rights. In this paper, I briefly review Pascal’s original wager about whether to live a pious life, including two classes of objections that were almost immediately leveled against his argument. I then show ...
Infinite Previsions And Finitely Additive Expectations, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane
Infinite Previsions And Finitely Additive Expectations, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane
Department of Philosophy
We give an extension of de Finetti’s concept of coherence to unbounded (but realvalued) random variables that allows for gambling in the presence of infinite previsions. We present a finitely additive extension of the Daniell integral to unbounded random variables that we believe has advantages over Lebesguestyle integrals in the finitely additive setting. We also give a general version of the Fundamental Theorem of Prevision to deal with conditional previsions and unbounded random variables.
Decent Termination: A Moral Case For Severance Pay, Tae Wan Kim
Decent Termination: A Moral Case For Severance Pay, Tae Wan Kim
Tepper School of Business
People are often involuntarily laid off from their jobs through no fault of their own. Employees who are dismissed in this manner cannot always legitimately hold employers accountable for these miserable situations because the decision to implement layoffs is often the best possible outcome given the context—that is, layoffs in and of themselves may be “necessary evils.” Yet, even in circumstances in which layoffs qualify as “necessary evils,” morality demands that employers respect the dignity of those whose employment is involuntarily terminated. In this paper I argue that to preserve the dignity of employees who are involuntarily terminated, in ...