Digital Commons Network^™

Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery

Masters Theses

Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent, similarly sized watersheds within the same Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 6 basin. A Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a wide range of extreme precipitation events across the combined …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Evolution Of The Electrical Grid, Melissa Ree Allen

Doctoral Dissertations

Maintaining interdependent infrastructures exposed to a changing climate requires understanding 1) the local impact on power assets; 2) how the infrastructure will evolve as the demand for infrastructure changes location and volume and; 3) what vulnerabilities are introduced by these changing infrastructure topologies. This dissertation attempts to develop a methodology that will a) downscale the climate direct effect on the infrastructure; b) allow population to redistribute in response to increasing extreme events that will increase under climate impacts; and c) project new distributions of electricity demand in the mid-21^st century.

The research was structured in three parts. The first …

Anticipated Changes In Precipitation Events Over The 21st Century Using Community Climate System Model, Version 4, Scott Tavish Deneale

Masters Theses

Future global daily precipitation data from Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) were analyzed to evaluate changes in a variety of precipitation parameters over the 21st century. Multiple ensemble members of 21st century Representative Community Pathways (RCP) radiative scenarios were included in the model to provide an array of potential future climate change results. Multiple ensembles of historic daily precipitation data from CCSM4 were compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V1DD daily precipitation data and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) monthly precipitation data. Annual average and 95th percentile precipitation values were averaged from 1997-2005 …