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Mathematical Models For Gene Flow From Gm Crops In The Environment, O. Richter, K. Foit, Ralf Seppelt Jul 2004

Mathematical Models For Gene Flow From Gm Crops In The Environment, O. Richter, K. Foit, Ralf Seppelt

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Risk assessment of gene flow from GM crops into the environment requires both the development of physical transport models and biological models for the assessment of outcrossing probabilities. Our starting point is a Lagrangian approach for pollen dispersal, which describes the concentration statistics in terms of the stochastic properties of the paths of ensembles of particles. Transport of a particle from a location (x’,y’,z’) to a location (x,y,z) is mediated by a probability density or transfer function Q(x,y,z|x’,y’,z’). The transfer function depends on the statistics of the wind field during pollination. The total amount of pollen, which reaches a single …


A New Method For Estimating Flow Duration Curves : An Application To The Burdekin River Catchment, North Queensland, Australia, D. A. Post Jul 2004

A New Method For Estimating Flow Duration Curves : An Application To The Burdekin River Catchment, North Queensland, Australia, D. A. Post

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a new method of representing flow duration curves (FDC) using a logarithmic transformation. The FDC has been defined using two parameters – the ‘cease to flow’ point, and the slope of the FDC. This method for defining the FDC has been applied to 23 sub-catchments of the Burdekin River in North Queensland, Australia. The two parameters defining the FDC have been related to the area, mean annual precipitation, drainage density and total stream length of the catchments under consideration. Finally, a regionalisation procedure has been developed whereby the FDC for an ungauged catchment can be predicted based …


Infiltration Of Stormwater In A Rain Garden: Richards Equation Numerical Model And Field Experiment, Alejandro R. Dussaillant Jul 2004

Infiltration Of Stormwater In A Rain Garden: Richards Equation Numerical Model And Field Experiment, Alejandro R. Dussaillant

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Traditional stormwater management does not mitigate groundwater depletion resulting from groundwater pumping and reduction in recharge. Infiltration practices, such as rain gardens, offer a potentially effective approach for addressing groundwater depletion. A rain garden is a landscaped garden in a shallow depression that receives the stormwater from nearby impervious surfaces, focusing recharge. We have developed a numerical model that can be applied in rain garden design and evaluation. Water flow through the rain garden soil is modeled over three layers- a root zone, a middle storage layer of high conductivity, and a subsoil lower layer. To continuously simulate recharge, runoff …


A Spatial Dss For South Australia's Prawn Fisheries. Using Historic Knowledge Towards Environmental And Economical Sustainability, B. Ostendorf, N. Carrick Jul 2004

A Spatial Dss For South Australia's Prawn Fisheries. Using Historic Knowledge Towards Environmental And Economical Sustainability, B. Ostendorf, N. Carrick

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Spencer Gulf Penaeid prawn fishery is an example of a sustainable fishery due to close collaboration between fishers, research and government. The fishery has undergone substantial increase in fishing efficiency due to improvement in gear, increase in crew skill, effective use of communication networks for monitoring catch, stock assessment, and for rapid response for change in harvest strategies. Spatial decision-making has reduced the fishing effort to around 60 days per year and less than 10% of the area of the Gulf is trawled, with increasing economic gain due to development of real time adaptive harvest strategies undertaken in collaboration …


Modelling Biocomplexity In The Tisza River Basin Within A Participatory Adaptive Framework, J. Sendzimir, P. Balogh, A. Vári Jul 2004

Modelling Biocomplexity In The Tisza River Basin Within A Participatory Adaptive Framework, J. Sendzimir, P. Balogh, A. Vári

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The erosion of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin developed slowly and incrementally over the past 130 years since implementation of the original Vásárhelyi river engineering plan. The Hungarian public view, blinded by flood and toxic spill catastrophes, missed the slow and subtle changes to natural, social and human capital precipitated by the reshaping of the TRB landscape and its agriculture for flood defence and grain production. While conversion of the TRB from a fruit/nut/ fishery polyculture to a wheat monoculture produced a great deal of financial capital for an aristocratic minority, the gradual drain of alternatives forms of capital …


Linking Hydrologic Modeling And Ecologic Modeling: An Application Of Adaptive Ecosystem Management In The Everglades Mangrove Zone Of Florida Bay, Jon C. Cline, Jerome J. Lorenz, Eric D. Swain Jul 2004

Linking Hydrologic Modeling And Ecologic Modeling: An Application Of Adaptive Ecosystem Management In The Everglades Mangrove Zone Of Florida Bay, Jon C. Cline, Jerome J. Lorenz, Eric D. Swain

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Across Trophic Levels System Simulator (ATLSS) is a suite of ecological models designed to assess the impact of changes in hydrology on biotic components of the southern Florida ecosystem. ATLSS implements a multimodeling approach that utilizes process models for lower trophic levels, structured population models for middle trophic levels (fish and macroinvertebrates), and individual-based models for large consumers. ATLSS requires hydrologic input to assess the effects of alternative proposed restoration scenarios on trophic structure. An ATLSS model (ALFISH) for functional fish groups in freshwater marshes in the Everglades of southern Florida has been extended to create a new model …


Relative Importance Of Model And Parameter Uncertainty In Models Used For Prediction Of Persistence And Long-Range Transport Potential Of Chemical Pollutants, K. Fenner, M. J. Macleod, M. Stroebe, A. Beyer, M. Scheringer Jul 2004

Relative Importance Of Model And Parameter Uncertainty In Models Used For Prediction Of Persistence And Long-Range Transport Potential Of Chemical Pollutants, K. Fenner, M. J. Macleod, M. Stroebe, A. Beyer, M. Scheringer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Overall persistence (POV) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of chemicals are two indicators used in the context of precautionary chemical assessment. Multimedia fate models are used in research and regulatory contexts to calculate numerical indicators of POV and LRTP. The resulting indicator values exhibit uncertainty due to model uncertainty concerning model design and due to variability and uncertainty in the substance parameters. In this study, we compare the relative magnitude of substance parameter and model uncertainty for a large set of 3175 hypothetical chemicals that evenly cover the chemical parameter space and for eight different multimedia models available for the …


Circadian Patterns Recognition In Ecosystems By Wavelet Filtering And Fuzzy Clustering, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Simone Arrigucci Jul 2004

Circadian Patterns Recognition In Ecosystems By Wavelet Filtering And Fuzzy Clustering, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Simone Arrigucci

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a method for extracting representative patterns from a set of data representing circadian cycles. The analysis is based on a combination of wavelet filtering and fuzzy clustering. The data are first processed with a discrete wavelet decomposition in order to filter out the noise and isolate the relevant circadian cycle. It is shown that the second level decomposition yields the best cycle approximation, filtering out measurement noise and other artefacts and preserving the main cycle features. From the filtered data the following discriminating features are extracted: minimum and maximum daily values, and the slope of the line …


Generic Process-Based Plant Models For The Analysis Of Landscape Change, B. Reineking, A. Huth, C. Wissel Jul 2004

Generic Process-Based Plant Models For The Analysis Of Landscape Change, B. Reineking, A. Huth, C. Wissel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The analysis of landscape change impacts on community composition and dynamics is difficult for species rich plant communities, because of their high complexity. One approach to deal with this challenge are generic process-based models. In these models, the species are described by a common set of parameters and functional responses. Thus, they allow both the integration of knowledge on key processes, and a common description for several ecological patterns. An important aspect of these models are trade-offs in the species’ physiological and life-history traits, which prevent ‘super-species’ that dominate under all environmental conditions. We compare process-based models with two other …


Possible Courses: Multi-Objective Modelling And Decision Support Using A Bayesian Network Approximation To A Nonpoint Source Pollution Model, David Swayne, Jie Shi Jul 2004

Possible Courses: Multi-Objective Modelling And Decision Support Using A Bayesian Network Approximation To A Nonpoint Source Pollution Model, David Swayne, Jie Shi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Modelling systems frequently work in a single domain, such as physical or chemical process modelling, hydrology or combinations, to simulate process in nature such as pollution transport or the production of food or manufactured goods. Side-effects of agro-industrial processes, or gains / losses from production enterprises are separately modelled without the ability to examine trade-offs or alternatives. Multi-objective modeling attempts to combine "apples and oranges" through decision theoretical principles. Such treatments can couple production and waste systems to quantify the economic cost of remediation. We demonstrate such an application, from the data acquisition, model calibration through to the hypothesis testing, …


Simulation Of Dynamic Tree Species Patterns In The Alpine Region Of Valais (Switzerland) During The Holocene, Heike Lischke Jul 2004

Simulation Of Dynamic Tree Species Patterns In The Alpine Region Of Valais (Switzerland) During The Holocene, Heike Lischke

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The spatio temporal forest landscape model TreeMig is presented. It is based on a forest dynamics model that incorporates spatial variability by frequency distributions for tree densities and light intensities. It also takes into account seed production, intra-specific density regulation and seed dispersal. As a case study, the change of the tree species patterns in the Central-Alpine region of Valais was simulated with the model, using climate anomaly and immigration scenarios. The simulations were run on a grid with 1km x 1km resolution and with a yearly time step during the Holocene in the highly structured and heterogeneous environment of …


Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger Jul 2004

Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation and decision support tools facilitate a process of reasoning about potential future development paths of a system, e.g. a river system, under alternative management strategies. Joint scenario development and analysis with river basin authorities and stakeholders can inform and structure discussions on management goals and major uncertainties affecting river basin management in future. Tools can support the determination of strategies that balance water allocation between multiple users, such as irrigation and the environment, and measures to cope with uncertainties. The GIS-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to facilitate exploration of alternative water management strategies for the degraded Amudarya …


Parameter Estimation Of A Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Model And Application To Mediterranean Catchments, A. Hreiche, C. Bocquillon, W. Najem Jul 2004

Parameter Estimation Of A Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Model And Application To Mediterranean Catchments, A. Hreiche, C. Bocquillon, W. Najem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Development of methodologies to achieve a priori parameter estimation of hydrological models is fundamental in ungauged basins, to reduce the number of parameters to be calibrated or to obtain parameter values where calibration is not possible. This work shows that conceptual rainfall-runoff models can be applied to ungauged watersheds by developing relationships between model parameters and watershed characteristics. In fact, the calibration of MEDOR, a four parameter daily lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model specific for the Mediterranean catchments, is affected by the equifinality issue. Systematic scanning of the Nash criterion objective function demonstrates that a Production Equifinality Relationship (PER) exists between …


Unit Hydrographs And Regionalisation Of United Kingdom River Flows: Comments On Some Estimation Uncertainties, I. G. Littlewood Jul 2004

Unit Hydrographs And Regionalisation Of United Kingdom River Flows: Comments On Some Estimation Uncertainties, I. G. Littlewood

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Two types of unit hydrograph (UH) are discussed, with an emphasis on uncertainties. The paper reviews the 1-parameter triangular unit hydrograph (UH) employed to assist with systematic design flood hydrograph estimation for ungauged United Kingdom catchments. A 6-parameter rainfall-runoff model that incorporates a 3-parameter UH is also discussed. The precision and accuracy of characteristic decay times for dominant quick and slow response UHs, derived from the 6-parameter model, are examined in the context of uncertainty in flow regime regionalisation. On the basis that, as argued in the paper, the full potential of the 3- parameter UH has yet to be …


Knowledge Discovery In Environmental Data Bases Using Gesconda, Karina Gibert, Xavier Flores, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè Jul 2004

Knowledge Discovery In Environmental Data Bases Using Gesconda, Karina Gibert, Xavier Flores, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this work, last results of the research project “Development of an Intelligent Data Analysis System for Knowledge Management in Environmental Data Bases (DB)” are presented. The project is focussed on the design and development of a prototype for Knowledge Discovery (KD) and intelligent data analysis, and specially oriented to environmental DB. It is remarkable the high quantity of information and knowledge patterns that are implicit in large DB coming from environmental domains. In this project, several environmental DB such as meteorological phenomena, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), or environmental emergencies were used for testing. KD is a prior and mandatory …


Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung Jul 2004

Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper focuses on implications of uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100.000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting …


Investigating Spatial Pattern Comparison Methods For Distributed Hydrological Model Assessment, S. R. Wealands, R. B. Grayson, J. P. Walker Jul 2004

Investigating Spatial Pattern Comparison Methods For Distributed Hydrological Model Assessment, S. R. Wealands, R. B. Grayson, J. P. Walker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Distributed hydrological models combine observations and knowledge about a hydrological system to make spatial predictions of hydrological attributes. These models require methods to assess their performance at spatial prediction. The current practice for assessment is simplistic. For qualitative assessment, simulated spatial patterns are compared visually against an observed pattern to assess their spatial similarity. To obtain a quantitative measure of similarity, each individual location is numerically compared to produce either a mean squared error (MSE) or correlation statistic. Both of these comparisons have their limitations. The visual comparison is subjective and the numerical comparison generally ignores the spatial structure of …


An Integrated Approach For The Management Of Uncertainty In Decision Making Supported By Lca-Based Environmental Performance Information, L. Basson, J. G. Petrie Jul 2004

An Integrated Approach For The Management Of Uncertainty In Decision Making Supported By Lca-Based Environmental Performance Information, L. Basson, J. G. Petrie

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents an approach for the integrated consideration of both technical and valuation uncertainties during decision making supported by LCA-type environmental performance information. Key elements of this approach include “distinguishability analysis” to determine whether the uncertainty in the performance information is likely to make it impossible to distinguish between the activities under consideration, and the use of a multivariate statistical analysis approach, called principal components analysis (PCA), which facilitates the rapid analysis of large numbers of parallel sets of results, and enables the identification of choices that lead to similar and/or opposite evaluations of activities. The integrated approach for …


Water Quality Modelling In Rivers With Limited Observational Data: River Elbe Case Study, Renata J. Romanowicz, Ulrich Callies, Peter C. Young Jul 2004

Water Quality Modelling In Rivers With Limited Observational Data: River Elbe Case Study, Renata J. Romanowicz, Ulrich Callies, Peter C. Young

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water quality predictions in an ungauged catchment require the development of a model that is able to capture the basic physical features of the process and depends only on variables that are easily available. From this point of view, the model has similar requirements to those used in future climate scenario analysis. The mechanistic water quality model, developed in GKSS, Germany, for the purpose of climate change analysis, uses only climatic variables, such as temperature, radiation and discharge, to predict the time variability of algae concentrations. This paper presents the development of a statistical analogue to this mechanistic model. The …


From Narrative To Number: A Role For Quantitative Models In Scenario Analysis, Eric Kemp-Benedict Jul 2004

From Narrative To Number: A Role For Quantitative Models In Scenario Analysis, Eric Kemp-Benedict

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There is growing concern that the predictive mathematical models conventionally used in policy analysis are too limiting to serve as tools in futures studies, because they cannot reproduce the sudden changes seen in real societies. The field of complex systems has successfully produced similar changes in simplified model systems, but has been less successful in practical futures work. Some recent scenario exercises (such as the IPCC scenarios, UNEP’s GEO-3 scenarios, the work of the Global Scenario Group and the European VISIONS project) have addressed this issue by combining wide-ranging narratives with quantitative models, demonstrating that a synthesis between qualitative and …


A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier Jul 2004

A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents CAMEL, a spatially-distributed conceptual model for simulating reactive transport of phosphorus from diffuse sources at the catchment scale. A catchment is represented in the model using a network of grid cells and each grid cell is comprised of various conceptual storages of water, sediment and phosphorus. To allow for reactive transport processes of phosphorus between grid cells, two cascade routing schemes are used for groundwater and channel water flows, respectively. The model has a modular, object-oriented structure so that it can be easily modified or extended and, furthermore, it can even provide a library of hydrological and …


Pub And Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling: The Importance Of Parsimonious Continuous-Time Models, Peter C. Young, Renata J. Romanowicz Jul 2004

Pub And Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling: The Importance Of Parsimonious Continuous-Time Models, Peter C. Young, Renata J. Romanowicz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The problem of Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is intimately linked with the concept of regionalisation; namely the transfer of information from one catchment that is gauged to another that is not. But such regionalisation exercises can be dangerous and should be attempted only with great care. The present paper addresses what the authors believe to be one essential aspect of regionalisation: namely, the importance of considering only ‘top-down’ models that are parametrically efficient (parsimonious) and fully ‘identifiable’ from the available catchment data. We argue further that many mechanistic model parameters are more naturally defined in the context of continuous-time, …


An Analysis Of Fuel Demand And Carbon Emissions In China, Baiding Hu Jul 2004

An Analysis Of Fuel Demand And Carbon Emissions In China, Baiding Hu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, targets have been set for various developed countries to reduce their carbon emissions. China’s share of carbon emissions ranked the second highest in the world in 1996, only after the United States. Although China was not formally required to achieve a reduction in its carbon emissions under the protocol, pressures were mounting, especially from the United States, for China to address the issue seriously. Some recent research on China’s carbon emissions has largely been carried out in the framework of computable general equilibrium models. For example, Fisher-Vanden …


Testing The Sensitivity Of Spillover Effects Across Financial Markets, Bernardo Veiga, Michael Mcaleer Jul 2004

Testing The Sensitivity Of Spillover Effects Across Financial Markets, Bernardo Veiga, Michael Mcaleer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Although market interdependence would seem to be conceptually straightforward, being based on international fundamentals, there are no generally accepted testing strategies. This paper tests for the sensitivity of the empirical results reported in Veiga and McAleer (2004), who use the vector autoregressive moving average asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VARMA-AGARCH) model of Chan, Hoti and McAleer (2002) to test for the existence of volatility spillovers among FTSE 100, SandP 500 and Nikkei 225. The existing literature is extended to analyse the robustness of the empirical results reported in Veiga and McAleer (2004) to: (1) the choice of currency used to …


Multivariate Volatility And Spillover Effects In Financial Markets, Bernardo Veiga, Michael Mcaleer Jul 2004

Multivariate Volatility And Spillover Effects In Financial Markets, Bernardo Veiga, Michael Mcaleer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The relationship between volatility and risk has been one of the main factors underlying the interest in volatility modelling. An important question for international diversification is whether shocks in one market influence, or have spillovers into, returns and volatility in other markets. This paper tests for the existence of volatility spillovers among the SandP 500, FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 stock indexes using intra-daily data from 12/10/1992 to 7/7/2003. Existing work is extended through the application of the vector autoregressive moving average asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VARMA-AGARCH) model of Chan, Hoti and McAleer (2002). The results suggest the presence …


Participatory Multi-Agent Systems Modeling For Collective Watershed Management: The Use Of Role Playing Game., P. Promburom Jul 2004

Participatory Multi-Agent Systems Modeling For Collective Watershed Management: The Use Of Role Playing Game., P. Promburom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Scarce farm land and water resources in the highland watersheds of northern Thailand coupled with multiple users have led to conflicts among stakeholders who play important roles in the system dynamics. Integrating companion modeling and multi-agent systems (MAS) can facilitate adaptive learning processes to result in a decentralized collective management strategy that meets the balanced needs of all parties. However, this requires innovative methods and tools, and coordination from all stakeholders involved in the process. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study on conducting role-playing games (RPG) in order to verify the researcher’s perceptions of an interested highland …


Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten Jul 2004

Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Challenges arise when it comes to capturing complex patterns of human behaviour in agent-based simulations. For example, human beings are not limited to one identity, to local levels of awareness or to acting on predetermined rules. Seemingly immune from these difficulties are some self-referential problems – situations where agents’ forecasts act to create the world they are trying to forecast. The emergent complexity in these systems results more from ways in which agents interact and react rather than from their individual idiosyncrasies. A well-known example is the Bar problem, whose collective regularities are relatively insensitive to the vagaries of individuals. …


A Spatially Parallel Implementation Of A Lake And Land Surface Model Interaction With A Regional Climate Model, David Swayne, Vimal Sharma, David Lam, Murray Mackay, Wayne Rouse, William Schertzer, Paul Huang Jul 2004

A Spatially Parallel Implementation Of A Lake And Land Surface Model Interaction With A Regional Climate Model, David Swayne, Vimal Sharma, David Lam, Murray Mackay, Wayne Rouse, William Schertzer, Paul Huang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Canada has several of Earth's largest lakes and many small lakes. Heat storage and circulation are greatly affected by lakes. Currently the Canadian Regional climate model does not incorporate a lake component. Therefore, we are linking atmospheric and lake models for such applications as climate prediction and assessing changes in the lake water quality and quantity. We investigate use of highly parallel arrays of clustered processors, available through Canada's SHARCNET. The accuracy of lake, land and atmospheric models depends on grid spacing. Coarser grids adversely affect accuracy. Regional climate model inputs are required subhourly, placing a lower bound on the …


Assessing The Feasibility Of Using Radar Satellite Data To Detect Flood Extent And Floodplain Structures, Edith Stabel Jul 2004

Assessing The Feasibility Of Using Radar Satellite Data To Detect Flood Extent And Floodplain Structures, Edith Stabel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

River dynamics and hydrological behaviour are strongly influenced by human activities both in the catchment areas and in the floodplains. The knowledge of recent and historical river dynamics and related morphological and structural changes on the land surface (e.g. sedimentation, accumulation, river bed movement) is essential in assessing the flood risk and the vulnerability of human resources and structures. Earth Observation (EO) systems provide data to monitor and to analyse both, the river dynamics and small surface changes. Especially, radarbased systems and interferometric data analysis are of high interest. Along selected sites in the River Odra area, we analysed the …


Forecasting Uv Index By Neoplanta Model: Methodology And Validation, S. Malinoviç, Dragutin T. Mihailović, Z. Mijatoviç, D. Kapor, I. D. Arseniç Jul 2004

Forecasting Uv Index By Neoplanta Model: Methodology And Validation, S. Malinoviç, Dragutin T. Mihailović, Z. Mijatoviç, D. Kapor, I. D. Arseniç

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major consequence of decreasing stratospheric ozone is the increase of solar ultraviolet radiation (UV) passing through the atmosphere. Ultraviolet radiation is very harmful to the entire ecosystem, including health of the human population and for that reason, in the last few decades, scientists have placed a large emphasis on monitoring UV radiation and development and use of estimation procedures. Model NEOPLANTA estimates UV irradiance under cloudless conditions on a horizontal surface and computes the UV index. Model includes effects of the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, SO2 and NO2 and absorption and scattering by aerosol and air molecules …