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Speeding, Punishment, And Recidivism – Evidence From A Regression Discontinuity Design, Markus Gehrsitz

Economics Working Papers

This paper estimates the effects of temporary driver's license suspensions on driving behavior. A little known rule in the German traffic penalty catalogue maintains that drivers who commit a series of speeding transgressions within 365 days should have their license suspended for one month. My fuzzy regression discontinuity design exploits the quasi-random assignment of license suspensions caused by the 365-day cutoff and shows that 1-month license suspensions lower the probability of recidivating within a year by 20 percent. This effect is not driven by incapacitation and indicates that temporary license suspensions are an effective tool in preventing traffic transgressions.