Digital Commons Network^™

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Megersa Daksa

Dissertations

This study presents three essays on financial economics. In the first essay, we examine how monetary policy shocks affect risk aversion and uncertainty, as well as how risk aversion and uncertainty spread across financial markets. Although a recent study shows that monetary policy influences risk aversion and uncertainty in global stock markets, there are no studies on risk aversion and uncertainty spillover across stock, currency, and commodity markets. Following the method of Bekaert et al. (2013), we decompose the implied volatility indexes (VIX's) for the SP500, U.S. exchange rate, gold and crude oil into risk aversion and uncertainty. The decomposition …

Path Planning For Aircraft Under Threat Of Detection From Ground-Based Radar With Uncertainty In Aircraft And Radar States, Austin D. Costley

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Mission planners for manned and unmanned aircraft operating within the detection range of ground-based radar systems are often concerned with the probability of detection. Several factors influence the probability of detection, including aircraft position and orientation, radar position, and radar performance parameters. Current path planning algorithms assume that these factors are known with certainty, but in practice, these factors are estimated and have some uncertainty.

This dissertation explores methods to consider the uncertainty in the detection factors for an aircraft path planner. First, the detection model is extended to include uncertainty in the aircraft position and orientation, radar position, and …

Uncertainty Evaluation For Determination Of Isocarbophos Residues In Tea By Quechers-Gas Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry, Lu Zhenhua, Yu Lifang, Cai Danping, Li Cheng

Food and Machinery

Objective:The uncertainty of determination of Isocarbophos residues in tea by using QuEChERS-gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry techniqne was evaluated. Methods:Isocarbophos residues in tea was determined by using "GB 23200.113—2018 National food safety Standard-Determination of 208 pesticides and metabolites residues in plant origin-Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method", and factors in the determination of isocarbophos were analyzed by establishing a mathematical model, including sample weighing, volume, calibration of standard solutions, repeatability and recovery rate, etc.. Results:When the residual amount of isocarbophos in tea was 0.050 mg/kg, the expanded uncertainty was 0.007 mg/kg, and the determination result was expressed as:ω …

Life Is A Die, Xiangyu Deng

Theses

Life are consist of uncertainty and certainty. The most functional way for people to deal with life is to try their best for certainty and to accept uncertainty. However, due to the consistently changing environment and fast increasing uncertainty, people are more and more unlikely to deal with life and its uncertainty. This project, Life-is-a-die, will express the personal thought to deal with life and release worries and fear through a poetic video. In this video, the designed metaphors, poetic story, sound effects, text, 3d elements, motions, visuals, motion, and textures will play a vital role to help people understand …

Emergency Medicine Clinician Experiences Addressing Uncertainty In First-Trimester Bleeding., Garrison Nord, Amanda Doty, Andrew J Monick, Danielle M Mccarthy, Robin J Casten, Amer Z Aldeen, Philip S Nawrocki, Kristin L. Rising

Department of Emergency Medicine Faculty Papers

The purpose of this work is to understand Emergency Department (ED) clinicians' experiences in communicating uncertainty about first-trimester bleeding (FTB) and their need for training on this topic. This cross-sectional study surveyed a national sample of attending physicians and advanced practice providers (APPs). The survey included quantitative and qualitative questions about communicating with patients presenting with FTB. These questions assessed clinicians' frequency encountering challenges, comfort, training, prior experience, and interest in training on the topic. Of 402 respondents, 54% reported that they encountered challenges at least sometimes when discussing FTB with patients where the pregnancy outcome is uncertain. While the …

Uncertainty Evaluation For The Determination Of Natural Capsaicin, Dihydrocapsaicin And Synthetic Capsaicin In Edible Oils And Fats By Lc-Ms/Ms, Huang Hui, Liao Yan-Zhi

Food and Machinery

Objective: Uncertainty assessment of the content of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and dihydrocapsaicin in edible oils and fats by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was carried out, and the sources of uncertainty and the key factors affecting the test results were analyzed, so as to improve the accuracy of test results.Methods: To establish a mathematical model for the uncertainty of the content of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and dihydrocapsaicin in edible oils and fats, to analyze the factors that may introduce uncertainty in the detection process, and to evaluate each uncertainty component.Results: The contents of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and …

Evaluation On Uncertainty Of Advantame In Syrups Determined By High Performance Liquid Chromatography, Lei De-Qing, Zhong Fei-Fei, Zhou Jin-Sha, Liu Bo, Wang Zi-Qian, Zhou Ya-Min

Food and Machinery

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of determination by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the content of adevantame, a synthetic sweetener illegally added in syrup drugs. Methods: The sample is diluted with solvent, and the content of adevantame in the sample was determined by HPLC. Through the analysis of the factors affecting the uncertainty, such as the preparation of the reference solution, curve fitting, sample weighing, sample volumetric determination and instrument precision, the uncertainty was synthesized of each component, and the extended uncertainty is calculated. Results: The expanded uncertainty is 1.8 μg/mL. The influence …

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In Determination Of Five Kinds Of Carbamate Pesticide Residues In Apple By Liquid Chromatography-Post-Column Derivatization, Yu Xing, Chang Wei, Wang Yong-Lin, Yao Zeng

Food and Machinery

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the accuracy of determination results of five kinds of carbamate pesticide residues in apple. Methods: Five kinds of carbamate pesticide residues in apples were detected according to NY/T 761—2008, and the uncertainty of the determination process was evaluated and analyzed. Results: The contents of carbosulfur, methomyl, 3-hydroxycarbamate, aldicarb and isoprocarb in apples are expressed in the form of expanded uncertainty as (0.105 7±0.007 8), (0.107 7±0.006 2), (0.109 2±0.005 8), (0.103 9±0.008 4), (0.106 1±0.007 6) mg/kg (k=2). Conclusion: The main sources of uncertainty in the experiment are standard material, …

The Dynamics Of Entrepreneurial Networking Logics: Evidence From United Kingdom High-Tech Start-Ups, Joanne Jin Zhang, Charles Baden-Fuller, Jing Zhang

Management Faculty Publications

Purpose – This study aims to explore how entrepreneurial firms’ networking logics may change under different types of perceived uncertainty. The arrival of new knowledge from the entrepreneurial firm’s network may alter the perceived technology and market uncertainty that in turn determines how the firm adopts or combines the two opposing logics of causation and effectuation. Focusing on the roles of external advisors recruited by the firms, the study probes the details of the cyclical process and the mechanism through which networking logics are altered.

Design/methodology/approach – In this study the authors conducted a 3-year longitudinal multiple case study of …

Stochastic Seismic Response Analysis Of Engineering Site Considering Correlations Of Critical Soil Dynamic Parameters, Zi-Lan Zhong, Yue-Bo Shi, Jin-Qiang Li, Mi Zhao, Xiu-Li Du

Rock and Soil Mechanics

This paper presents a method to generate random samples of soil dynamic shear modulus and dynamic damping curves with full consideration of the correlations of critical soil dynamic parameters to investigate the influence of their uncertainties on the engineering site seismic response in the implementation of equivalent linear method. A one-dimensional (1D) equivalent linear site seismic response analysis program, which serves stochastic dynamic response analysis of the engineering site, has been developed in MATLAB. A 1D free field model for the typical layered engineering sites of site class II is established in this study. The target response spectra, which are …

Adaptive Management Facilitates Increase In Northern Bobwhite Populations, James A. Martin, Clay Sisson, Justin Rectenwald, Paige Howell

National Quail Symposium Proceedings

Adaptive resource management (ARM) is an approach to managing that allows decision makers to learn about a system and subsequently change management actions based on new information about system processes (i.e., adapt) to better meet fundamental objectives. This is not to be confused with changing management actions when the state of the system changes. For example, changing a harvest regulation when populations decline is not ARM. This dynamic decision making may be fortuitously optimal, but if the effect of harvest is uncertain then changing regulations may be suboptimal—for example, weather may have caused the decline. Adaptive resource management can be …

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In The Determination Of Acid Scarlet Gr In Orange Juice By High Performance Liquid Chromatography, Yuan Yuan, Zeng Hui, Xiao Yan, Yang Li-Xia, Cui Xiao-Jiao, Yang Yun, Wu Hou-Lu

Food and Machinery

Objective:The uncertainty of the determination of acid scarlet GR in orange juice by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was evaluated. The source of uncertainty and the key factors affecting the test results were analyzed, so as to improve the accuracy of the test results.Methods:The mathematical model of uncertainty of acid scarlet GR content in orange juice was established. The factors that may introduce uncertainty in the detection process were analyzed, and the uncertainty components were evaluated.Results:The content of acid scarlet GR in self-made positive orange juice was 1.46 mg/kg, the expanded uncertainty was 0.11 mg/kg …

Uncertainty Evaluation On Determination Of Statins In Health Food By Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (Gc-Ms), Zhang Li-Xia, Guo Qing-Yuan, Hua Qi-Cheng, Li Xiang-Mei

Food and Machinery

Objective:In presence of measurement uncertainty evaluation, the detection methods, with water-sodium chloride pretreatment, for health food was evaluated.Methods:A mathematical model was established to analysis of uncertainty sources. Then the individual components of uncertainty were evaluated. Finally, the combined uncertainty and extended uncertainty were calculated.Results:The uncertainty caused by several factors, including the fitting of the standard curve, the preparation of solution and standard, the repeatability of measurement, and the weigh of sample.The contents of mevastatin, lovastatin and simvastatin were 0.099 2, 0.101 0, 0.099 5 mg/kg in health foods, respectively. The relative combined standard uncertainties were …

Unexpected Arousal Suppresses Memory And Metamemory Predictions During Associative Face-Name Recognition Task, Sameer Sabharwal-Siddiqi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Successful recognition often depends on probabilistic estimation of memory-signal. Arousal has been shown to offset the influence of heuristic evidence on memory prediction. We conducted three experiments that tested whether arousal also suppresses predictions relevant to memory confidence. Experiments employed associative face-name memory tasks that included retrospective (Experiments 1 and 2) or concurrent (Experiment 3) judgements of confidence. During test, subjects were presented with a masked-affective face on a subset of trials. By timing the masked-affective face to precede a recognition judgement (Experiment 1), we replicated the finding that unexpected arousal offsets the influence of heuristic evidence on expectations of …

Intolerance Of Uncertainty Specific To Compulsive Exercise : Development And Preliminary Validation Of The Exercise-Specific Intolerance Of Uncertainty Scale, Christina Scharmer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Compulsive exercise is poorly understood and difficult to treat. Overlap between definitions of compulsive exercise, eating disorders and OCD suggests that conceptualizations of these disorders may include shared underlying mechanisms, including intolerance of uncertainty. Although intolerance of uncertainty is traditionally conceptualized as a non-specific construct representing an individual’s dispositional distress in the face of general uncertainty, identifying specific forms of intolerance of uncertainty may further assist in understanding the specific factors that contribute to the development and maintenance of problematic behaviors, including compulsive exercise. The current study aimed to develop an assessment instrument that captures exercise-specific variations in intolerance of …

Optimal Global Supply Chain And Warehouse Planning Under Uncertainty, Avnish Kishor Malde

All Dissertations

A manufacturing company's inbound supply chain consists of various processes such as procurement, consolidation, and warehousing. Each of these processes is the focus of a different chapter in this dissertation.

The manufacturer depends on its suppliers to provide the raw materials and parts required to manufacture a finished product. These suppliers can be located locally or overseas with respect to the manufacturer's geographic location. The ordering and transportation lead times are shorter if the supplier is located locally. Just In Time (JIT) or Just In Sequence (JIS) inventory management methods could be practiced by the manufacturer to procure the raw …

Informal And Incidental Learning In The Clinical Learning Environment: Learning Through Complexity And Uncertainty During Covid-19, Dimitrios Papanagnou, Karen E Watkins, Henriette Lundgren, Grace A Alcid, Deborah Ziring, Victoria J Marsick

Department of Emergency Medicine Faculty Papers

In the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, where clinical environments are plagued by both uncertainty and complexity, the importance of the informal and social aspects of learning among health care teams cannot be exaggerated. While there have been attempts to better understand the nuances of informal learning in the clinical environment through descriptions of the tacit or hidden curriculum, incidental learning in medical education has only been partially captured in the research. Understood through concepts borrowed from the Cynefin conceptual framework for sensemaking, the early stages of the pandemic immersed clinical teams in complex and chaotic situations where there was …

Discrete Choice Experiments In Agricultural And Food Economics: Two Essays On Information Provision Modalities, Uncertainty Adjustment, And Hypothetical Bias, Monsoïa Arsène Juste Agossadou

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Stated discrete choice experiments are extensively used in applied economics to study preferences and valuation for new products, as well as costs and benefits of new policies and programs. Moreover, information provision experiments widely use the method to examine information effects on different outcomes. This thesis explores two methodological issues in discrete choice experiments: (i) information provision modalities and (ii) hypothetical bias. The first study examines the effect of information modality by testing the effect of using combined text script and audio clip (treatment) versus only text script (control) to convey information in discrete choice experiments. Specifically, the study elicits …

Tax Avoidance And The Auditor's Opinion: The Role Of Uncertainty And Government Ownership (Evidence From The Stock Market Of Iran), Masoud Taherinia, Mohammad Abdi, Marziyeh Dormishi

Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal

The study investigates how market uncertainty and government ownership are associated with tax avoidance and auditor's opinion. The Iranian market is highly volatile and dominated by government ownership, which holds implications on the shareholders' interests. Our research uses a comprehensive data set of 115 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2012-2018, using logistic regression technique. We find out that market uncertainty intensifies the positive relationship between tax avoidance and the auditor's modified opinion. The findings indicate that the government presence in the ownership increases the tax avoidance, and hence changes the auditor's report.

Distinguishing Unpredictability From Uncertainty In Entrepreneurial Action Theory, Ryan W. Angus, Mark D. Packard, Brent B. Clark

Marketing & Entrepreneurship Faculty Publications

The traditional view that perceived and archival uncertainty measures are substitutable proxies for “true” environmental (entrepreneurial) uncertainty presumes an “all-seeing eye.” Adopting a representationalist epistemology, we distinguish environmental (objective) unpredictability from entrepreneurs’ subjective uncertainty, which has so far been theoretically confounded. It is, in fact, possible for an entrepreneur to be highly certain despite excessive unpredictability and vice versa. Theoretically distinguishing these constructs has fundamental implications for entrepreneurial action theory. For example, because intentional action is consciously originated, unpredictability influences action only indirectly, while uncertainty has direct effects. Outcomes, on the other hand, are directly affected by the complexity and …

Fuzzy Reasoning Procedure For Ontologies Based On Rough Membership Approximation, Armand Florentin Donfack Kana, Babatunde Opeoluwa Akinkunmi

Future Computing and Informatics Journal

One of the major challenges in modeling a real-world domain is how to effectively represent uncertain and incomplete knowledge of that domain. Several techniques for representing uncertainty in ontologies have been proposed with some of the techniques lacking provision for vague inference. The classical tableaux-based algorithm does not provide the flexibility for reasoning over such vague ontologies. However, several extensions of the tableaux-based algorithm have been proposed to cope with fuzzy reasoning. Similarly, several alternative reasoning methods for incomplete, inconsistent, and uncertain ontologies have been proposed. One of the major limitations of most of those techniques is that they require …

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage And The Neurobiology Of Uncertainty In Traumatically Injured Adults, Carissa W. Tomas, E. Kate Webb, Kenneth P. Bennett, Ashley A. Huggins, Jacklynn M. Fitzgerald, Tara A. Miskovich, Jessica L. Krukowski, Terri A. Deroon-Cassini, Christine L. Larson

Psychology Faculty Research and Publications

Background

Individuals residing in more socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods experience greater uncertainty through insecurity of basic needs such as food, employment, and housing, compared with more advantaged neighborhoods. Although the neurobiology of uncertainty has been less frequently examined in relation to neighborhood disadvantage, there is evidence that neighborhood disadvantage is associated with widespread neural alterations.

Methods

Recently traumatically injured participants (n = 90) completed a picture anticipation task in the magnetic resonance imaging scanner, in which they viewed images presented in a temporally predictable or unpredictable manner. We investigated how neighborhood disadvantage (via area deprivation index [ADI]) was related to …

Uncertainty Evaluation Of Cadmium Content In Kelp (Laminaria Japonica) By Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectrometry, Liu Lan-Ying, Lu Xin, Li Ying, Luo Tu-Yan

Food and Machinery

Objective: To improve the accuracy of the results of cadmium (Cd) content in kelp (Laminaria japonica) by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS). Methods: The concentration of Cd element in kelp sample was measured by using GF-AAS after microwave digestion according to the standard of GB 5009.15—2014. Combining with the experimental process and mathematical model, the possible sources of measurement uncertainty were firstly identified, then the components of each standard uncertainties were calculated, and finally each parameter of uncertainties was synthesized, and the whole uncertainty was evaluated. Results: when the value of Cd concentration in kelp was 0.202 …

Cognitive Challenges In Complex System Design, Mark Andrew

DRS Biennial Conference Series

Design intentions guide design efforts but complex systems can lead to designers’ intentions being eclipsed. Artificial Intelligence systems are examples of complex sociotechnical systems that exercise self-learning, innovation and creativity that can exceed their designers’ imaginations. This paper’s proposition is that sociotechnical systems design offers scope for improved reliability and is built on three features of current design practice. First, design teams seek cooperative cognition to work together but joint understanding can be impoverished by inadequately understood outcome scenarios. Second, design team collaboration is bounded by innate psychological biases which can influence design decisions. Third, some views of risk in …

Quality Of Financial Information And Accounting Considerations During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Maria Markova, Georgi Hristov

International Journal of Business and Technology

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed numerous difficulties before business entities and thus before accounting professionals. The paper summarizes the main issues financial reporting faces during the pandemic with respect to the quality of the financial information provided by the financial statements of the entities. The main quality characteristics of useful financial information are brought to light in the context of the impediments posed by the COVID-19 crisis. Different aspects of financial reporting are discussed: the implications on the going concern principle; the effects on accounting judgements and estimates; events after the reporting period. The paper provides real-life examples for the …

Being "Rightly Known": Otherness And The Ethics Of Reading In Charlotte Brontë'S Villette, Tin Yan Grace Lee

Theses and Dissertations

Villette (1853), Charlotte Brontë's last novel, is famously riddled with ambiguity: its narrator-protagonist, Lucy Snowe, avoids disclosing details about her childhood, fails to reveal to readers the identity of characters she recognizes from her past, and, at the end of the novel, refuses to confirm if her love interest, M. Paul, has died at sea after a storm. Believing Lucy's ambiguous narrative style to be a tool she uses to train readers to better understand her, many critics have focused their efforts on trying to interpret Lucy's silences and evasions "correctly," thereby turning themselves into Lucy's or Brontë's "ideal" authorial …

Uncertainty In Post-Anaesthesia Nursing Clinical Reasoning: An Integrative Review In The Light Of The Model Of Uncertainty In Complex Health Care Settings, Lara Daniela Matos Cunha, Márcia Pestana-Santos, Lurdes Lomba, Margarida Reis Santos

Journal of Perioperative Nursing

Problem identification: Post-anaesthesia nursing plays an important role in the early detection and treatment of clinical deterioration after surgery and/or anaesthesia. Concomitantly, the effectiveness of post-operative care is highly dependent on the accurate analysis, synthesis of patient data and quality of diagnostic decisions through clinical reasoning. Given the dynamic processes required to come to a diagnosis, uncertainty is common in clinical reasoning and expected during practice. Nevertheless, uncertainty may permeate the foundations of clinical reasoning, which can jeopardise diagnostic accuracy and consequently the quality and safety of health care.

Literature search: The objectives of this review are to identify available …

Economic Dispatch Of Park Integrated Energy System Considering The Uncertainty Of Distribution Generation And Demand Response, Hua Pan, Zheng Yao, Lingling Huang, Zuofang Liang, Jing Fang

Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology

Demand response (DR) has played an important role in promoting the integration distribution generations (DG) into the park integrated energy system (PIES). However, the uncertainty of DGs becomes a huge challenge to the economic operation of PIES.In view of this, a PIES economic dispatch model is proposed on the basis of the information gap decision theory (IGDT).First of all, with the objective function of minimizing the operating cost of the PIES, an economic dispatch model of PIES with DR is constructed with the consideration of cooling/heating/electricity.On this basis, the IGDT is utilized to deal with the uncertainties of DR and …

Improving How We Lead And Manage In Business Marketing During And After A Market Crisis: The Importance Of Perceived Status, Certainty, Autonomy, Relatedness And Fairness, Jared M. Hansen, Joseph W. Hansen, Susan R. Madsen Susan.Madsen@Usu.Edu

Marketing and Strategy Faculty Publications

Purpose The purpose of this research is to outline and investigate a set of five experience elements from neuroscience research labeled SCARF that could impact the quality of perception, evaluation and engagement of executives, managers and employees in business-to-business (B2B) companies during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed experience elements are perceived status, certainty, autonomy, relatedness and fairness. The authors demonstrate that all five elements are influential factors in B2B employees’ workplace environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors outline several specific managerial implications and describe how companies can make better decisions related to several important market crisis decisions …

Times Of Uncertainty: The Psychological And Behavioral Impact Of Employment Uncertainty On Furloughed Workers And The Moderating Effect Of Work Orientation, Jack Haoyue Zhang

Olin Business School Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Although furloughs have been used by organizations for some time, their use increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. They differ from layoffs in the uncertainty they involve around the employment relationship. However, the phenomenon has received little attention from research on involuntary job loss, and the impact of the employment uncertainty it involves is largely unknown. Furthermore, the moderating factors that differentiate the impacts across employee populations are also unclear. In this dissertation I report a mixed-method field study examining the impact of employment uncertainty on furloughed workers and the moderating role by their work orientation. To guide the development …