Digital Commons Network^™

Loss-Based Estimation With Cross-Validation: Applications To Microarray Data Analysis And Motif Finding, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sunduz Keles, Annette M. Molinaro, Sandra E. Sinisi, Siew Leng Teng

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Current statistical inference problems in genomic data analysis involve parameter estimation for high-dimensional multivariate distributions, with typically unknown and intricate correlation patterns among variables. Addressing these inference questions satisfactorily requires: (i) an intensive and thorough search of the parameter space to generate good candidate estimators, (ii) an approach for selecting an optimal estimator among these candidates, and (iii) a method for reliably assessing the performance of the resulting estimator. We propose a unified loss-based methodology for estimator construction, selection, and performance assessment with cross-validation. In this approach, the parameter of interest is defined as the risk minimizer for a suitable …

Risk, Return And Degree Of Owner Involvement In Privately Held Firms, Edward Vos, Bronwyn M. Smith

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

Financial theory states that the variability of an asset’s return should be explained by the relative riskiness of that asset (Sharpe, 1964). This concept has been built around, and applied to, publicly-listed companies for which market information (which forms the basis of the risk and return measures) is easily visible and obtainable. Unfortunately, the fact that such information is rarely (if ever) available for small businesses, severely limits the usefulness of such a theory for privately-held enterprises. Therefore by using data from 100 small businesses and three measures of risk, this study provides empirical evidence that for small businesses, there …

When The Risk Is Strategically And Operationally Insignificant, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

The article discusses some of the dangers in labelling a risk as strategically and operationally insignificant in a security setting.

Groundwater Investigation On Victoria Location 8565, East Binnu, Russell John Speed

Resource management technical reports

Describes a drilling investigation undertaken for the East Binnu area within Victoria location 8565, Western Australia. Groundwater monitoring bores were installed to assess the risk of dryland salinity developing if after clearance of native vegetation, the area is used to grow annual crops and pastures. The investigation confirmed that the risk of further salinity development in this location is extreme.

Knowledge Of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors And Perception Of Risk In Women, Kimberly Kuykendall-Marlar

MSN Research Projects

More women than men are dying of cardiovascular disease. The misconception persists that heart disease is a "man's disease" and not an urgent health care issue for women. In the United States, heart disease kills more women than all cancers combined. In 1997, 228,679 women died due to cardiovascular disease, and 41,443 women died from breast cancer. Yet, women are still not assessed effectively for their risk factors for cardiovascular disease; therefore, women are under-diagnosed and under-treated for this disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate women's knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors, assess their perception of risk, …

The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …

Understanding The Terrorist Mindset, Randy Borum

Mental Health Law & Policy Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Slides: Managing Risks Associated With Climate-Related Water Supply Variability, Bonnie G. Colby

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie G. Colby, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Arizona

5 page "Outline" and 38 slides

Tornadoes In Mississippi: A County By County Community Risk Assessment, Renee Nicole Clark

Theses and Dissertations

Mississippi leads the nation in tornado deaths per unit area. Previous risk assessment studies have indicated a connection between housing type and fatalities but have focused only on a national scale. The purpose of this study was to provide a local scale risk assessment for Mississippi. Each county?s individual tornado risks were combined with US Census county housing data for each decade from 1960-2000. The study found that the comparable risk to life and property is highest in Harrison County and Hinds County, but with proper shelters and community planning this risk would be mitigated.

Do Investors Demand Higher Rates Of Return On Risky Investments In Closely Held Small Businesses?, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

Investors in small closely held firms often are oblivious to risk if the rewards are perceived to be sufficiently high. Risk may also be ignored because such investors seek more than just increased cash flow. These investors often seek higher order psychological returns such as job challenge and status.

Epidemiology Of Occupationally Acquired Tuberculosis In Healthcare Workers, W. Jaimjarasrangsi

Chulalongkorn Medical Journal

No abstract provided.

Risk Perception Regarding Energy Production: Factor Structure In A French Sample, Etienne Mullet, Anne Bertrand, Cécilia Lazreg, Sheila Rivière Shafighi

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "Considering that energy production is a key factor in the development of nations, it is important to have detailed information on the risks attributed by lay people to the different types of energy as well as the different stages of energy production. This study reports on the structure of risk perception with regard to energy production found among French participants. There have already been many investigations of risk perception related to energy production. . . .

The present study is a direct extension of the Mullet study. A similar, although more complete, set of items was used. These items …

Risk, Death And Harm: The Normative Foundations Of Risk Regulation, Matthew D. Adler

All Faculty Scholarship

Is death a harm? Is the risk of death a harm? These questions lie at the foundations of risk regulation. Agencies that regulate threats to human life, such as the EPA, OSHA, the FDA, the CPSC, or NHTSA, invariably assume that premature death is a first-party harm - a welfare setback to the person who dies - and often assume that being at risk of death is a distinct and additional first-party harm. If these assumptions are untrue, the myriad statutes and regulations that govern risky activities should be radically overhauled, since the third-party benefits of preventing premature death and …

Snake-Oil Security Claims The Systematic Misrepresentation Of Product Security In The E-Commerce Arena, John R. Michener, Steven D. Mohan, James B. Astrachan, David R. Hale

Michigan Telecommunications & Technology Law Review

The modern commercial systems and software industry in the United States have grown up in a snake-oil salesman's paradise. The largest sector of this industry by far is composed of standard commercial systems that are marketed to provide specified functionality (e.g. Internet web server, firewall, router, etc.) Such products are generally provided with a blanket disclaimer stating that the purchaser must evaluate the suitability of the product for use, and that the user assumes all liability for product behavior. In general, users cannot evaluate and cannot be expected to evaluate the security claims of a product. The ability to analyze …

Children At Promise: An Investigation Of The Perceived Presence Of Supportive Relationships In The Life Of A Child And That Child's Ability To Perceive The Benefits Of Adversity, Timothy S. Stuart

Education Dissertations

The central purpose of this study is to determine whether there is a correlation between the presence of supportive relationships in a child's life and his or her ability to perceive the benefits of adversity in his or her life. Other possible predictors of a child's ability to perceive the benefits of adversity are explored through a hierarchical multiple regression analysis.

One hundred and forty six (n = 146) high school students were surveyed using the At Promise Survey. The data was collected and statistically analyzed. The perceived presence of supportive relationships in a child's life, and the importance of …

Ritual Influences And Perceptions Of Risk As Predictors Of Alcohol Use Among College Undergraduates, Katherine Novak

Katherine B. Novak

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Sociological Society, Chicago, IL, April 2003.

How Do Asset Management And Gis Work Together? Part I, Lauren Tracy, Andrew Harrison, Tom Sturmer, Steve Moore, Becky Tamashasky, Jason Hooten

Purdue Road School

No abstract provided.

The Role Of Individual Differences In Learning Alcohol Expectancy Associations, Howard R. Steinberg

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Alcohol expectancy theory suggests that genetically influenced personality characteristics may lead to differential acquisition of expectancy information, and that this information then may serve as one mediational pathway for alcoholism risk. Research has already shown that expectancy information can predict and even mediate risk, but it has yet to be shown that personality traits can influence the acquisition of alcohol expectancy information. To that end, personality characteristics known to be risk factors for the development of excessive alcohol use were assessed in 83 male undergraduates. In addition, each participant studied, in a paired-associate learning/cued-recall test paradigm, a list of word …

A Difficulty With Oaths: On Trust, Trustworthiness, And Signalling, Friedel Bolle, Matthew Braham

German Working Papers in Law and Economics

In the wake of the Enron and Worldcom financial scandals that rocked Wall Street in 2002, the US government’s financial regulatory body, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) took the unprecedented step in June 2002 of requiring that the chief executives and chief financial officers of America’s 947 biggest companies to swear on oath that their company results and financial reports were to the best of their knowledge accurate. The one-off order was quickly followed by the passing of the Sarbanes-Oxely act, which will require many more CEOs and CFOs to certify their company reports and financial statements at regular …

Asymptotics Of Cross-Validated Risk Estimation In Estimator Selection And Performance Assessment, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Risk estimation is an important statistical question for the purposes of selecting a good estimator (i.e., model selection) and assessing its performance (i.e., estimating generalization error). This article introduces a general framework for cross-validation and derives distributional properties of cross-validated risk estimators in the context of estimator selection and performance assessment. Arbitrary classes of estimators are considered, including density estimators and predictors for both continuous and polychotomous outcomes. Results are provided for general full data loss functions (e.g., absolute and squared error, indicator, negative log density). A broad definition of cross-validation is used in order to cover leave-one-out cross-validation, V-fold …

Incorporating Risk In Efficiency Analysis, Glenn A. Helmers

Department of Agricultural Economics: Presentations, Working Papers, and Gray Literature

Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine the impact of incorporating risk in efficiency analysis and (2) to compare the efficiency measures with and without risk for continuous and rotation cropping systems. The model uses Nebraska cropping system data for the period, 1986-2000. Results indicate lower efficiency gains are realized with the incorporation of risk. The t-test at the 5% level of significance examining if efficiency measures are significantly different from one is also reported.

Prohibited Risks And Culpable Disregard Or Inattentiveness: Challenge And Confusion In The Formulation Of Risk-Creation Offenses, Paul H. Robinson

All Faculty Scholarship

Because they track the Model Penal Code, current criminal law formulations of risk offenses typically fail to distinguish the rule of conduct question - What risks does the criminal law prohibit? - from the adjudication question - When is a particular violator's conscious disregard of, or his inattentiveness to, a risk in a particular situation sufficiently condemnable to deserve criminal liability? Instead, the formulations address only the second question - through their definition of reckless and negligent culpability - and fail to provide a rule of conduct provision to define a prohibited risk. This reliance upon culpability definitions as the …

Risk, Transaction Costs, And Tax Assignment: Government Finance In The Ottoman Empire, Metin M. Cosgel, Thomas J. Miceli

Economics Working Papers

Risk and transaction costs often provide competing explanations of institutional outcomes. In this paper we argue that they offer opposing predictions regarding the assignment of fixed and variable taxes in a multi-tiered governmental structure. While the central government can pool regional risks from variable taxes, local governments can measure variable tax bases more accurately. Evidence on tax assignment from the mid-sixteenth century Ottoman Empire supports the transaction cost explanation, suggesting that risk matters less because insurance can be obtained in a variety of ways.

The Change In Systematic Risk After The 9/11 Events: An Analysis Of Restaurant Industry, Kihun Kim

UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations

The tragic events of September 11, 2001 (the 9/11 events) have had a dramatic impact on all aspects of American society. Although all facets of U.S. society have been affected by the September 11 attacks, it is hard to identify an industry that felt those effects more immediately than the hospitality industry. The aftermath of the events of 9/11 has forced the hospitality industry to face a disastrous fact in terms of decreased customer demand. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the average systematic risk, or beta, of the restaurant industry changed significantly after 9/11. More specifically, …

Musings Of A Serial Entrepreneur — Reconciling Theory With Practice, Joseph E. Levangie

New England Journal of Entrepreneurship

To reminisce about my entrepreneurial career with appropriate self-importance, I might note that I have helped create companies and jobs. This contributes in a small way to economic growth. Economic growth is, however, an often illusive concept to characterize. Job growth is an essential component of a dynamic, innovative process. In the late 1970s jobs growth research suggested that the vast majority of new jobs are created by small business formation. Such empirical research is difficult to support with theoretical constructs. Classic macroeconomics analysis discounts size-offirm as irrelevant. Entrepreneurial contribution is therefore difficult to assess.

Genetic Polymorphisms Of Cyp1a1, Gstm1 And Gstt1 Genes And Lung Cancer Risk, Ioanna A. Dialyna, Spyridon Miyakis, Niki Georgatou, Demetrios A. Spandidos

Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health - Papers: part A

Genetic polymorphisms of the genes encoding for the xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes result in individual variations in the efficiency of detoxification of environmental carcinogens, and have been extensively associated with variable risk for lung neoplasms in different ethnic and environmental backgrounds. In this study, using PCR-RFLP based assays, we investigated the distribution of genetic polymorphisms in CYP1A1, GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes in Greek lung cancer patients (N=122) and healthy controls (N=178). The frequency of CYP1A1 m1 homozygous genotype was 0.04 in patients and 0.02 in controls (detected in 4.10% of patients and in 1.69% of controls, respectively), that of GSTM1 null …

Preferences And Rational Choice: New Perspectives And Legal Implications: Introduction, Matthew D. Adler, Claire Finkelstein, Peter H. Huang

Publications

No abstract provided.

From Corporate To Entrepreneurial Life: Risks And Challenges Along The Way, Gene O'Neill, Liz Ellington, Laurence Weinstein

New England Journal of Entrepreneurship

Interview by Laurence Weinstein of Gene O'Neill and Liz Ellington, owners of TeWhau Lodge in New Zealand.

Homicide On Holiday: Prosecutorial Discretion, Popular Culture, And The Boundaries Of The Criminal Law, Carolyn B. Ramsey

Publications

This article discusses prosecutors' discretion to press criminal charges against individuals who cause death during recreational activities. Based on newspaper sources, published opinions, and unpublished materials from cases that resulted in plea bargains, Homicide on Holiday continues the author's exploration of the relationship between the American public, criminal prosecutors, and the nature of the prosecutors' public role. It shows that, despite popular culture's glorification of risk and a nationwide trend in tort law toward sheltering sports co-participants from civil negligence liability, an exhilarating trip down a ski slope is increasingly likely to land a skier in jail if he collides …

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, And Adaptation In The United States: Building A Capacity For Assessment, Edward A. Parson, Robert W. Corell, Eric J. Barron, Virginia Burkett, Anthony Janetos, Linda Joyce, Thomas R. Karl, Michael C. Maccracken, Jerry Melillo, M. Granger Morgan, David S. Schimel, Thomas Wilbanks

Articles

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. …