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The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy On Public Debt In Egypt, Malak Mohamed

Theses and Dissertations

The thesis aims to examine the effect of monetary policies and fiscal policies on public debt in Egypt during the period from 2006 until 2021. Egypt is witnessing aggravated levels of debt, with limited fiscal and monetary space. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to analyze the effect of discount rates, inflation rates, subsidies, taxes and economic growth on debt-to-GDP in Egypt using a VAR model with an extended test of Impulse Response Function. The results suggest that a positive shock in government expenditures initially decreases public debt but leads to a fluctuating increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in …

Profit Shares And Cost-Push Inflation: Examining The Distributional Nature Of U.S. Inflation And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy, Devin Herbinger

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

The sharp increase in post-pandemic inflation coincided with a profit explosion characterized by a growing share of profit in output. This paper argues that the record profit share in the nonfinancial corporate sector entails a redistribution of income against real wages due to the current institutional and structural conditions of the U.S. economy. Using profit share as a proxy for markups, the results of this paper highlight the macroeconomic implications of excessive profitability in the face of a global exogenous shock. Chiefly, rising profit share correlates with accelerating CPI inflation from 2021-22. Moreover, this surge in profit share occurred when …

A Dollar A Day Keeps Inflationary Crisis Away: An Evaluation Of Proposed Dollarization In Argentina, Dante Mcdermott

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis analyzes the history and policy variations of dollarization to gain understanding that can be used to evaluate the proposal of dollarization in Argentina. After analyzing the monetary policy histories of Ecuador, El Salvador, Liberia, Panama, and Zimbabwe, I put the main takeaways into the context of Argentina’s monetary history and current economic situation. I find that the adoption of foreign currencies in an economy provides short-term relief from inflationary crises, but that long-term economic benefits are vulnerable to attacks by populist leaders and their high spending governments. In order to maximize the long-term benefits of dollarization, the policy …

Essays On Macroeconomics, Mauricio Torres Ferro

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My dissertation consists of three essays on Macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I study the implications of uncertain expenses for households' savings and for their consumption adjustment in response to monetary policy. In the third chapter, I study how asset liquidity affects households’ ability to smooth idiosyncratic income shocks.

In the first chapter, I characterize uncertain expenses using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Here, my goals are twofold. First, I classify households’ spending that captures uncertainties in expenses (for example, car and home repairs or out-of-pocket medical expenses) and measure their overall importance. Second, I aim to understand how …

Cbdc: Context, Challenges, And Conditions For A Successful Adoption, Charlie Nhuc Hiang Lay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) are the digital version of physical notes and coins. They are the latest milestone in the evolution of money over the centuries due to technological advancements. This digitalisation of physical money primarily serves as a medium of exchange that has a central bank anchor. There are two versions of CBDC, wholesale and retail. This thesis focuses on retail CBDC, which targets the general public and small daily transactions. It discusses the issues and the plausible implementation of a retail CBDC. A CBDC will preserve monetary sovereignty, foster financial stability, and counter private network effects, i.e., …

The Impact Of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy On Sector Etf And Market Cap Etf Performance, Maverick J. Boring

Honors College Theses

This study explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy changes on returns and volatility of U.S. equity markets, including large cap, mid cap, and small cap as well as the eleven sectors of the S&P 500. Federal Reserve policy changes in this study are measured by changes in the federal funds target rate. To measure the impact of these rates on U.S. equity markets, I construct a longitudinal dataset inclusive of exchange traded funds (ETFs) that serve as proxies for all eleven sectors, as well as one index and two ETFs that capture the performance of small, mid, and large …

Three Essays On Macroeconomic Shocks, Chase Coleman

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation looks at the role that various macroeconomic shocks have on the economy through the lens of both macro- and micro-economic perspectives. In the macro realm, I examine the importance of how researchers measure shocks; functional shocks reveal information latent in scalar shocks. From the micro point of view, I examine the impact of a change in national tax policy.

In Chapter 2, I analyze the effect of monetary policy shocks on household consumption. Measuring shocks as shifts in the entire term structure of interest rates reveals a heterogeneous response of households to conventional and unconventional policies. I find …

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Megersa Daksa

Dissertations

This study presents three essays on financial economics. In the first essay, we examine how monetary policy shocks affect risk aversion and uncertainty, as well as how risk aversion and uncertainty spread across financial markets. Although a recent study shows that monetary policy influences risk aversion and uncertainty in global stock markets, there are no studies on risk aversion and uncertainty spillover across stock, currency, and commodity markets. Following the method of Bekaert et al. (2013), we decompose the implied volatility indexes (VIX's) for the SP500, U.S. exchange rate, gold and crude oil into risk aversion and uncertainty. The decomposition …

Three Essays On The Political Economy Of The Cfa Franc, Francis Perez

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation is organized into three essays. The second essay provides a historical overview of the CFA franc and explores why the CFA franc has survived for so long. It argues that a historical and dialectical materialist analysis of the CFA’s history can best explain both its extraordinary longevity and the periodic major reforms to its functioning. The third essay assesses whether the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) has an independent monetary policy by examining the relationships between BCEAO’s foreign reserves and base money, and between BCEAO and the European Central Banks’s policy rates. The fourth essay evaluates …

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

Modern Monetary Theory: Merits, Critiques, And Contemporary Implications, Rebecca Singleton, Thomas Herndon

Honors Thesis

The study of macroeconomics is a diverse field, with conflicting opinions and numerous camps of thought. The election of 2016 brought this to the public attention, as the appointment of Stephanie Kelton as Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign economic advisor brought Dr. Kelton’s heterodox school of macroeconomic policy to the attention of mass media. In particular, Modern Monetary Theory became a public discussion, particularly in the wake of stimulus spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a heterodox macroeconomic theory most discussed in far-left and post-Keynesian academic circles, has faced backlash from a centrist mass media. I investigate the …

Three Essays On Monetary Policy And Exchange Rates, Liang Fu

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Chapter 1 is the product of joint work with Chun-Yu Ho. China’s monetary policy framework has evolved considerably in the past two decades, increasingly moving from using quantity-based instruments and targets to using price-based instruments and targets. This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in China by examining the influence of monetary policy on market interest rates using an event-study approach. We find that the effectiveness of price-based instruments in impacting market interest rates increases over time, and that price-based instruments are as effective as quantity instruments during the period since the completion of interest rates liberalization. Furthermore, central …

Uncovered Interest Rate Parity And Monetary Policy Rule In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Nepal, Guna Raj Bhatta

University of Wollongong Thesis Collection 2017+

Exchange rate and monetary policy are emerging topics under consideration in Nepal’s macroeconomic policy discussions. Since the early 1950s, Nepal has fixed the exchange rate with India. Nepal is highly dependent on India for trade and investment and shares an open border. Both the exchange rate regime and level of peg have not been adjusted since 1993, despite several changes in the macroeconomic environment. Existing empirical evidence has demonstrated that Nepal is importing price stability by fixing the exchange rate, real exchange rate has appreciated, external trade competitiveness is weak, and effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission is poor.

Against …

The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …

Investigating The Impacts Of Monetary Policy On Income Inequality In Developed Nations: Case Study Of The Euro Area, Japan And The United States, Hector Martinez Garcia

Masters Theses

This paper tries to evaluate the effect that unconventional monetary policy has had on income inequality for the set of Eurozone countries, the United States and Japan using an unbalanced panel data model over the period from 1980 to 2021, first jointly and then individually, using different regressions for each case. Based on the regression model analyzed, the study attempts to analyze the relationship between money supply and income inequality as measured by the Gini index using fixed effects and random effects for our panel data model. The study reveals the importance of the money supply variable in reducing inequality …

Essays On Bitcoin And Cryptocurrencies, Jiasong Wu

Dissertations

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, invented as potential digital international currencies, have gradually drawn more and more attention since their birth. The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in the past decade and the recent acceptance of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador suggests that there is growing acceptance of these instruments and that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. Among these cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has a unique place being the first and most well-known cryptocurrency in terms of price, market capitalization, and trading volume.

The first two essays of this dissertation focus on Bitcoin and the third essay focuses on the cryptocurrency market in …

Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …

Interest On Reserves In A Partial Two-Sector Banking Model, Shawn A. Osell

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The Federal Reserve implemented a new monetary tool policy as it simultaneously conducted the first round of quantitative easing in 2008. At that time, the Fed began paying interest on a commercial bank's required and excess reserves in order to prevent the federal funds rate from falling to zero. Before quantitative easing, reserves were scarce enough for the federal funds rate to be determined by the supply and the demand for reserves. Consequently, the Fed would use open market operations to manipulate the federal funds rate, and thereby influence other market interest rates. When the Federal Open Market Committee decided …

The Predictive Power Of The Term Structure Under Unconventional Monetary Policies, Luying Yang

Honors Theses

Previous research has confirmed a positive relationship between the slope of the yield spread and future economic growth. Since the start of the Great Recession, a number of developed economies have hit the zero lower bound and adopted unconventional monetary policies such as large-scale bond/asset purchase programs and negative interest rate policies. This paper finds that the yield spread’s predictive power generally deteriorates after the central bank adopts its first bond purchase program. However, there is no general pattern of how these unconventional monetary policies impact the yield spread’s forecasting ability across countries.

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

Three Essays On International Financial And Monetary Interactions, Kemal Burak Bekircan

Dissertations

This dissertation develops three essays on safe haven currency behavior and international monetary interactions.

Essay one notes the dramatic appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis all world currencies, along with its reversal after a year on the account of the Great Recession. This paper investigates bilateral U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. I find that increasing global market uncertainty has a significant and consistent effect in strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This striking finding suggests flight-to-safety phenomenon of foreign investors, and repatriation of capital flows to the United States by the U.S. …

Three Essays On Gender-Specific Employment Outcomes Of Macroeconomic Policies, Selin Secil Akin

Doctoral Dissertations

This three-essay dissertation examines the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on gender-disaggregated employment outcomes both theoretically and empirically. The first essay constructs a structuralist macroeconomic model that explores channels whereby fiscal and monetary policies impact women’s paid and unpaid work. The essay discusses two factors related to labor market segregation that can explain differential effects of macroeconomic policies on male and female employment: the labor intensity of female-dominated sectors, and different responses of capacity utilization to aggregate demand shocks in male and female-dominated sectors. In addition, a decline in output resulting from aggregate demand shocks may increase women’s unpaid …

Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

The 2008 recession affected the American economy more than any recession since the Great Depression. Unlike its response to the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve aimed to stimulate the economy through all means in its power. However, the Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy tools were not viable options due to the zero lower bound. As a result, the Federal Reserve pursued an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing which involved purchases of long-term assets on a scale never before seen in the United States. Since its inception, quantitative easing has faced significant scrutiny over its merit and has …

Interest Rate Setting Behavior In The Philippines, Inigo Ugarte

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper examines the recent conduct of monetary policy in the Philippines and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) interest rate setting behavior. In this paper, I use a standard open economy reaction function to see whether the BSP reacts more to changes in the inflation rate, exchange rate, and or the output gap. I find that in the Philippines, the interest rate responds strongly to exchange rates. Furthermore, interest rates are less consistently explained by inflation and more accurately explained by exchange rates. This tends to suggest that the BSP goes against its inflation targeting strategy and supports a …

No Pain, No Gain: Australia, Uk, And Us Stock Market Responses To The 2020 Stimulus Efforts, Jett Zeimantz

CMC Senior Theses

The stock market shocks of 2020 caused by the COVID-19 crisis have been met by monetary policy announcements rapidly issued by the central banks of developed economies, signaling a concerted effort to keep markets afloat. Utilizing an ordinary least squares regression, this paper tests whether the monetary policy announcements of the central banks of the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom served their intended purpose in soothing market reactions via high-frequency event data. For the overall stock market, I find that the Federal Reserve’s announcements boosted market returns of the S&P 500 Index by 4.2%, the All Ordinaries Index …

Empirical Analysis Of China’S Exchange Rate And Macroeconomic Policy, Jia Ji

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the effects of exchange rate and macroeconomic policy in China. It consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism. As China’s domestic financial markets deepen and develop further toward a market-based system, the country’s monetary policy transmission should continue to improve in the sense that the policy instrument’s influence on economic conditions increases in magnitude and stabilized across time. Using a short-term key interest rate as a standard monetary policy tool and time-varying parameter techniques, this study empirically demonstrates that China’s monetary policy framework is in the midst of transitioning to a …

The Size Of The Multiplier: Comparing Alternate Views After The Great Recession, Daniel Focht

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis reviews the major theoretical frameworks and their outlook on the government spending, its effectiveness, the implied size of the multiplier and how they differed in empirical studies. This is followed by an estimation of the government multiplier for the major U.S. fiscal policy, namely the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Own estimation of the size of the multiplier is presented using a standard SVAR model based on New Keynesian approach for time period between 2009 and 2018. In addition, following the classical economic theory, the multiplier is recalculated in the absence …

Three Essays On The Impacts Of China’S Monetary Policy, Shen Chen

Dissertations

China has experienced high speed of economic growth, trying to catch up with the developed countries. Monetary policy has played a more and more important role in China. This dissertation studies the impacts of China's monetary policy on China's housing market, stock market, and China's economic growth.

The first essay examines macroeconomic determinants of China's housing price by constructing a VAR model. Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions are used to analyze the impacts of macroeconomic factors on the housing price. By using the monthly data from 2005 to 2015, the results show that a contractionary monetary …

Three Essays On Asset Price Bubbles, Frank Ofori-Acheampong

Dissertations

This dissertation examines various issues associated with asset price bubbles. In the first essay, a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities is developed to identify asset price bubbles in the S&P 500 Index. The model nests two different methodologies; a state-dependent regime-switching model and a Markov regime-switching model. Three bubble regimes are identified; dormant, explosive, and collapsing. Time-varying transition probabilities are specified for each of the nine possible transitions in the Markov regime-switching model. Estimation of the model is done using conditional maximum likelihood with the Hamilton filter. Results show that transition probabilities depend significantly on trading volume and …

A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber

Theses and Dissertations

How do different inflation-targeting regimes affect the monetary loss-function of a central bank aiming at stabilizing inflation around an inflation target and stabilizing the real economy? Under a basic New-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the effect of inflation-targeting regimes on the monetary loss function of a central bank.