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Developing Bayesian Network Models Within A Risk Assessment Framework, C. A. Pollino, Barry T. Hart

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The risk assessment framework is increasingly being applied to examine both human and non-human stressors on ecological systems. Risk-based decision-making aims to quantify the likelihood of a threat occurring, the consequences of this to an ecological system, process or value, and the associated uncertainty in the predictions. Until recently, the ability to predict changes in dynamic ecosystems due to stressors was limited by both the poor understanding of the drivers of ecological processes and structure, and the lack of modelling tools that could represent such complexity with associated uncertainties. However, the recent growth in the use of Bayesian network tools …