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A Generic Framework For The Identification Of Parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff Models, T. Wagener, H. S. Wheater
A Generic Framework For The Identification Of Parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff Models, T. Wagener, H. S. Wheater
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A task which is often central to hydrological modelling is the identification of an appropriate model structure and a suitable parameter set for a specific case, i.e. a given set of modelling objectives, catchment characteristics and data. However, this identification process is difficult and will often result in a range of possible models, i.e. different parameter sets within a certain model structure, or different model structures. Two generic rainfall-runoff modelling and Monte Carlo analysis toolboxes have been developed to allow for the implementation and subsequent comparison of spatially lumped, metric and parametric model components in order to identify the model(s) …
Solving The Inverse Problem In Stochastic Groundwater Modelling With Artificial Neural Networks, C. Rajanayaka, S. Samarasinghe, D. Kulasiri
Solving The Inverse Problem In Stochastic Groundwater Modelling With Artificial Neural Networks, C. Rajanayaka, S. Samarasinghe, D. Kulasiri
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In this paper, prediction capability of a hybrid Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) was investigatedto solve the groundwater inverse problem. Initially, a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was developedand it was found that network produced better results when the target range of the parameters is smaller.Therefore, a Self-Organising Network (SON) was used to identify the objective subrange of the parameterand then the MLP model was employed to obtain final estimates. The data for the ANN was obtained from anumerical model that was utilised to simulate the solute transport in saturated groundwater flow. The forwardproblem of the numerical model was solved to …
Multiscale And Multicriterial Hydrological Validation Of The Eco-Hydrological Model Swim, Fred Hattermann, Valentina Krysanova, Frank Wechsung, M. Wattenbach
Multiscale And Multicriterial Hydrological Validation Of The Eco-Hydrological Model Swim, Fred Hattermann, Valentina Krysanova, Frank Wechsung, M. Wattenbach
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The hydrological validation described in this paper follows a bottom-up approach, when at first 12 mesoscale subbasins, covering the main subregions of the basin, are validated, and then the information gained from the mesoscale is used to validate the hydrological processes of the whole basin. Special attention was paid to the use of spatial information (maps of water table depth) in addition to usual point data (water discharge at gauge stations) to validate the model. While the primary purpose of distributed hydrological models is to reproduce both water fluxes in subbasins and hydrotopes along with river discharge, they are often …
Management Of Contamination Risks And Identification Of Contamination Sources, A. Kryazhimskii, V. Maksimov
Management Of Contamination Risks And Identification Of Contamination Sources, A. Kryazhimskii, V. Maksimov
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Some aspects of management of contamination risks based on monitoring contamination sources areunder consideration. The case when direct measurements are impossible and the values of the contaminationinputs should be estimated through observations of indirect indicators is studied. Standard mathematical modelsdescribing the diffusion of a contaminant in the form of partial differential equations of the parabolic type areused. A model-based technique for the reconstruction of the evolution of the intensities of point-concentratedcontamination sources through observations of the concentration of the contaminant is presented. Results ofnumerical experiments are discussed.
Uncertainty In Dynamic Process To Extinction, K. Tainaka, Nariyuki Nakagiri, Tomoyuki Sakata, Tomomi Tao
Uncertainty In Dynamic Process To Extinction, K. Tainaka, Nariyuki Nakagiri, Tomoyuki Sakata, Tomomi Tao
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The investigation of perturbation experiments is important not only to forecast the effect of ecological management but also to know community interactions. So far, uncertainty has been well known for perturbation experiments: many authors has reported that long-term response of ecosystem to applied perturbations has been very difficult to predict. In the present article, however, we report the uncertainty even in short-term response. We carry out a computer experiment of extinction, and explore whether the so-called fluctuation enhancement occurs or not, where the fluctuation enhancement means that there are a variety of processes to the extinction. We apply the contact …
Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck
Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present a framework for computational analysis of reachable futures, centred on the analysisof uncertainty, in which stakeholder participation is integral to generating environmental foresight. In ourcase study, we examine the long-term ecological behaviour of Lake Lanier, Georgia, south-eastern USA. Weelicit stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir during a foresight workshop session,from which we encode long-term behaviour definitions (scenarios) for the analysis. A generalised ecologicalmodel provides the mechanism for propagating a set of uncertain input factors – namely, process parameters,initial conditions, and forcing functions – into the future. We employ three sampling-based methods foridentifying and …
Uncertainty Management In Complex Models: The Nusap Method, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs, James Risbey, S.C. Quintana, Jerry Ravetz
Uncertainty Management In Complex Models: The Nusap Method, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs, James Risbey, S.C. Quintana, Jerry Ravetz
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A novel approach to uncertainty assessment, known as the NUSAP method (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) was applied to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in the TIMER energy model, part of RIVMs IMAGE Model. The TIMER model is a system dynamics energy model that has been used, for instance, in the development of the new IPCC baseline scenarios (SRES). For our analysis we have used the IMAGE B1 scenario as case study. We used two complementary tools to assess uncertainty: (1) The Morris algorithm for global sensitivity analysis and (2) a NUSAP expert elicitation workshop, which assessed different aspects of …
Parsimonious Catchment And River Flow Modelling, R. H. Khatibi, R. J. Moore, Martijn J. Booij, D. Cadman, G. Boyce
Parsimonious Catchment And River Flow Modelling, R. H. Khatibi, R. J. Moore, Martijn J. Booij, D. Cadman, G. Boyce
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
It is increasingly the case that models are being developed as “evolving” products rather than one-off application tools, such that auditable modelling versus ad hoc treatment of models becomes a pivotal issue. Auditable modelling is particularly vital to “parsimonious modelling” aimed at meeting specific modelling requirements. This paper outlines various contributory factors and aims to seed proactively a research topic by inextricably linking value/risk management to parsimonious modelling. Value management in modelling may be implemented in terms of incorporating “enough detail” into a model so that the synergy among the constituent units of the model captures that of the real …