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Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton
Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In January 2000, there was a record maximum rainfall throughout much of the watershed of the Swan River estuary, leading to the first reported Microcystis aeruginosa bloom in the estuary. Peak cell counts reached over 100,000 cells mL-1. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model, ELCOM-CAEDYM, is applied to the period of development and subsequent decline of the bloom. The model, previously calibrated for a more typical year (1995), accurately reproduced the unusual hydrodynamic circumstances and predicted the magnitude and timing of the Microcystis bloom. Salinity and temperature were the primary factors controlling the growth of Microcystis during the period of interest. …
Application Of 1d And 3d Hydrodynamic Models Coupled To An Ecological Model To Two Water Supply Reservoirs, Jose R. Romero, C. P. Dallimore, J. P. Antenucci, David P. Hamilton, J. Imberger, D. A. Horn, A. Deen
Application Of 1d And 3d Hydrodynamic Models Coupled To An Ecological Model To Two Water Supply Reservoirs, Jose R. Romero, C. P. Dallimore, J. P. Antenucci, David P. Hamilton, J. Imberger, D. A. Horn, A. Deen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A one-dimensional (1D-DYRESM) and three-dimensional (3D-ELCOM) hydrodynamic model were coupled to a common ecological model (CAEDYM) and applied to 2 different, but inter-connected reservoirs. A 1D water quality (WQ) simulation (DYRESM-CAEDYM) of large (V=2 km3, A=82 km2, L=50 km) and deep (zmax=90 m) Lake Burragorang during a drought (1992-1995) compared well with field data. DYRESM-CAEDYM simulations of much smaller (A=5 km2), shallower (zavg=9 m) and low residence time (ca. 1 month) Prospect Reservoir over 8 years (1983-1991) were validated against a comprehensive WQ record, with no modifications to the Lake Burragorang application other than to daily forcing and bathymetry files. …
Population Dynamics And Treatment Strategies Of Phytophthora Infestans (Late Blight) In The Mid-Hills Of Nepal, Heico Apel, M. S. Paudyal, O. Richter
Population Dynamics And Treatment Strategies Of Phytophthora Infestans (Late Blight) In The Mid-Hills Of Nepal, Heico Apel, M. S. Paudyal, O. Richter
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The fungus Phytophthora infestans is a major ubiquitous pest in solanaceous crops and causes great damages in the agricultural systems in Nepal. This is especially true in the cash crop orientated areas of the Mid-Hills and the Terai region, where potato and tomato cropping is a prominent income source of the rural population. This fact in combination with cheap and readily available pesticides is responsible for the frequent and perceived over-use of chemical plant protection agents. Based on this background a series of agronomic field trials in the Jhikhu-Khola watershed aiming at the optimisation of P. infestans treatment strategy was …
A Simulation System For Waste Management – From System Dynamics Modelling To Decision Support, Patrick A. Wäger, Lorenz M. Hilty
A Simulation System For Waste Management – From System Dynamics Modelling To Decision Support, Patrick A. Wäger, Lorenz M. Hilty
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
With ongoing differentiation of society and an increasing demand to consider sustainability principles, instruments to support the assessment, design and control of complex socio-technical systems will gain importance. In this context, computer-based numerical models may play an essential role. We present a system dynamics based simulation system for plastics waste management and discuss the practical experiences made with this system. The simulation system – called EcoSolver IP-SSK - combines the advantages of a system dynamics approach with expertise from the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). EcoSolver IP-SSK has been developed in cooperation with key players of the waste management …
Simple Spatially Distributed Model Of The Global Carbon Cycle And Its Dynamic Properties, Yuri Svirezhev
Simple Spatially Distributed Model Of The Global Carbon Cycle And Its Dynamic Properties, Yuri Svirezhev
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A specially simplified spatially distributed model of the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC) is presentedthat is allowed to get a general solution and to study its basic dynamic properties (like spectral portrait,composition and decomposition of solutions, etc.). Assuming that the productivity depends linearly onconcentration of carbon in the atmosphere, the problem is reduced to a standard linear one. For calibrationthe Bazilevich data containing information on plant productivity, living biomass and soil organic matter ofdifferent biomes is used. Calculating the matrix eigenvalues of the basic linear problem we get its spectralportrait. The characteristic times change sufficiently smoothly from several years to several …
The Impact Of Mature Trees On House Values And On Residential Location Choices In Quebec City, Marius Thériault, Yan Kestens, François Des Rosiers
The Impact Of Mature Trees On House Values And On Residential Location Choices In Quebec City, Marius Thériault, Yan Kestens, François Des Rosiers
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
When choosing their home, households are willing to maximize their satisfaction and utility while trying to avoid noise and inconvenience. Along with economic constraints, this decision process involves several types of criteria, including preferences and perception of environment in the neighbourhood. Previous research in spatial economy has addressed the impact of vegetation and environment quality on single-family house values, using hedonic price models. However, assessing the economic valuation of trees is not sufficient to fully understand the choice-setting mechanisms behind the conversion of environmental preferences into residential location choices. New modelling approaches integrating behaviour, attitudes, tradeoffs and motivations could certainly …
Iwram: An Integrated Modelling Toolbox For Considering Impacts Of Development And Land Use Change In Northern Thailand, R. A. Letcher, B. F. W. Croke, A. J. Jakeman, Wendy S. Merritt, P. Perez
Iwram: An Integrated Modelling Toolbox For Considering Impacts Of Development And Land Use Change In Northern Thailand, R. A. Letcher, B. F. W. Croke, A. J. Jakeman, Wendy S. Merritt, P. Perez
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The IWRAM Decision Support System was developed to consider economic, environmental, and sociocultural trade-offs involved with resource competition and development in the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. IWRAM contains two modelling toolboxes utilising a nodal network structure for catchment analysis: a Biophysical Toolbox, for considering the biophysical (erosion, streamflow, crop) implications of 'painted on' land use scenarios; and, an Integrated Modelling Toolbox, which links models of household decision making with the biophysical toolbox to allow for consideration of socioeconomic and environmental trade-offs of many development and policy scenarios. This paper describes the Integrated Modelling Toolbox within the IWRAM system. …
Choice Processes In Modelling For Policy Support, Penny Kloprogge, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs
Choice Processes In Modelling For Policy Support, Penny Kloprogge, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
When building a (interdisciplinary) model for policy support, modellers are faced with many choices that influence the model, and may influence the model outcomes. When a personal judgment is involved in a choice process, this can make the model biased. A model and its outcomes may be unacceptable to the users and stakeholders and may lead to conflict if the model does not adequately take their knowledge and perspectives into account. This study explored how choice processes in the modelling practice take place and what biases may occur that may influence the knowledge and perspectives incorporated in a model. Based …
Modelling The Effect Of Information Feedback On The Spread Of The Ebola Virus, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles
Modelling The Effect Of Information Feedback On The Spread Of The Ebola Virus, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper describes the application of the tools and techniques of the system dynamics method to the complex problem of understanding the spread of the Ebola virus. The main deliverable of this research is a computer simulation model in the system dynamics tradition. The essence of system dynamics is to act as a framework for formalising mental models of a problem. In this respect, the system dynamics simulation model presented here is a theory describing the structure of, and interrelationships between, the factors that impact an outbreak of the Ebola virus and the attempts to contain it. The model, comprising …
Appropriate Hydrological Modelling Of Climate Change Impacts On River Flooding, Martijn J. Booij
Appropriate Hydrological Modelling Of Climate Change Impacts On River Flooding, Martijn J. Booij
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should be used at which spatial and temporal scales. A procedure for determining an appropriate model has been developed and applied to the above mentioned specific problem for the Meuse river in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The model appropriateness procedure consists of three steps. First, the dominant processes and associated key variables are identified. …
The Particle Deposition Flux Monitoring And Analysis Approach Of The Supreme Project, G. Clai, F. Monforti, C. Catelli, G. Zanini, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, M. Bazzoli, A. Manganelli, J. Jacucci
The Particle Deposition Flux Monitoring And Analysis Approach Of The Supreme Project, G. Clai, F. Monforti, C. Catelli, G. Zanini, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, M. Bazzoli, A. Manganelli, J. Jacucci
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
SUPREME, a very articulated project still in progress financed by the Italian Universities andResearch Ministry, concerns an integrated decision support system finalized to catastrophic events forecastand to prevent and mitigate flooding and air pollution effects on monumental stones. This paper focuses onthe aerosols deposition tool. The new box model AERBOX simulates the whole life cycle of aerosols andthe consequent urban pollution impact due to the flux of particulate matter deposition. Applied on themonumental area of Florence basin, AERBOX models the industrial and mobile sources of the 50 km x 50km surrounding area induced pollution, and estimates the aerosol deposition on …
Contribute Of Gis Techniques In The Evaluation Of Anthropic Impact Change In A Sub-Alpine Shallow Lake, G. Tartari, D. Copetti, G. Barbiero, S. Tatti, R. Pagnotta
Contribute Of Gis Techniques In The Evaluation Of Anthropic Impact Change In A Sub-Alpine Shallow Lake, G. Tartari, D. Copetti, G. Barbiero, S. Tatti, R. Pagnotta
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper presents a calculation method to estimate theoretical nutrient loads (phosphorus and nitrogen) reaching to Pusiano catchment (Northern Italy) between 1961 and 2000. This approach integrate a classical method of nutrient loads calculation with aspects concerning GIS techniques. The dataset used in this work is a collection of socio-economic data concerning point and nonpoint sources. The nutrient loads are calculated using appropriate coefficients integrated with an empirical evaluation of the decay load along the distance between the source and the lake shore. The theoretical results are compared with the lake phosphorus loads calculated using a steady state mass balance …
An Approach For The Aggregation Of Albedo In Calculating The Radiative Fluxes Over Heterogeneous Surfaces In Atmospheric Models, D. Kapor, Dragutin T. Mihailović, T. Tosic, S. T. Rao, C. Hogrefe
An Approach For The Aggregation Of Albedo In Calculating The Radiative Fluxes Over Heterogeneous Surfaces In Atmospheric Models, D. Kapor, Dragutin T. Mihailović, T. Tosic, S. T. Rao, C. Hogrefe
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In the atmospheric models, the underlying surface consists of patches of solid and liquid parts and different plant communities, creating very heterogeneous picture in the grid-cell. In those cases, numerical modelers usually make a simple average to determine albedo as the grid-cell average albedo, a key variable in the parameterization of the land-surface radiative transfer over it. This method leads to uncertainties in the parameterization of the boundary layer processes when heterogeneities exist over the grid-cell. Also, a physics-based analysis indicates that there is a significant departure of the albedo above such a heterogeneous surface from that calculated by simple …
A Model For Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisationq, T. H. F. Wong, D. Fletcher, H. P. Duncan, J. R. Coleman, G. A. Jenkins
A Model For Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisationq, T. H. F. Wong, D. Fletcher, H. P. Duncan, J. R. Coleman, G. A. Jenkins
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Catchment urbanisation leads to increased hydraulic and pollutant loadings into receiving waterbodies. Issues concerning pollution that endangers the sustainable utilisation of water resources have focused government authorities towards integrated catchment management, where both causes and effects of pollution are addressed. Recent research has provided a platform for improving urban stormwater management. The CRC for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH) has recently developed a Model for Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisation (MUSIC), which serves as a decision support system (DSS) that packages the results of many research activities undertaken at the CRCCH and other organisations into an easily used tool. MUSIC enables urban catchment …
Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley
Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Wastewater reclamation and reuse at various scales is an important resource management toolin many regions of Europe and is coming under increasing scrutiny in the UK. However, the impact of reusestrategies on hydrologic flows, particularly during dry periods, is poorly understood and yet crucial to thedevelopment of sustainable resource management policies. In this paper we summarise the integrated modelsused for the simulation of such strategies (river flows, soil hydrology, aquifer dynamics and waterdistribution) and describe how water demand ‘profiles’ can be incorporated into a distribution matrix tosimulate recycling scenarios and demographic changes, and how both inter-catchment transfers and waterimportation schemes …
Continuous Contaminated Site Monitoring (Ccs M) Integrated Remote Real-Time Supervision For An Old Coking-P Lant, Frédéric Portet, Konrad Szafnicki, Jacques Bourgois, Véronique Milon
Continuous Contaminated Site Monitoring (Ccs M) Integrated Remote Real-Time Supervision For An Old Coking-P Lant, Frédéric Portet, Konrad Szafnicki, Jacques Bourgois, Véronique Milon
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The purpose of the Continuous Contaminated Site Monitoring (CCSM) is to develop a real time management methodology for PAHs (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons) contaminated aquifer resulting from coal activity. For full-scale experimentation, since June 2000 an old coking plant site has been instrumented (sensors, analysers, datalogger, programmable logic controller, etc….). Its follow-up currently continues with remote supervision, via telecom connection. The Contaminated Sites Monitoring is a necessity to control the evolution of pollution and therefore the risk to human health or environment. With aromatic hydrocarbons contamination, one is generally satisfied with selective investigation, in fact incomplete and non-representative of the reality. …
Egpe: A Computer Decision-Support Tool For The Ecomanagement Of Animal Manure As Agricultural Fertiliser, M. M. Vega, G. Carbonell, Mv Pablos, C. Ramos, C. Fernández, J. A. Ortíz, J. V. Tarazona
Egpe: A Computer Decision-Support Tool For The Ecomanagement Of Animal Manure As Agricultural Fertiliser, M. M. Vega, G. Carbonell, Mv Pablos, C. Ramos, C. Fernández, J. A. Ortíz, J. V. Tarazona
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
EGPE is an object-oriented model, which estimates the environmental distribution ofcontaminants within different environmental compartments and the specific risk associated with thesesdistributions and final concentrations. This model evaluates environmental impacts related to: a) the use ofsludge/manure as fertiliser, and b) direct discharges of slurry or effluents from treatment plants to waterstreams. The program takes into account the physico-chemical interaction processes occurring after thedischarge, estimating the downstream evolution of the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, organicnitrogen, ammonia, nitrites and nitrates. Within the estimations it is also included the environmental risk forthe aquatic communities related to quantified pollutants and the overall toxicity of …
Integrated Systems Analysis And Sustainable Development, Tad Soroczynski
Integrated Systems Analysis And Sustainable Development, Tad Soroczynski
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The paper presents integrated systems analysis (ISA) as a "tool" for modelling and for thedevelopment of decision support systems (DSS). ISA enhances understanding of the complex relationshipsbetween different disciplines in the form of inputs fi transformations fi outputs and also facilitates anunderstanding of the term sustainable development. Further, the paper presents a definition and model of ISAand discusses performance of component systems or distribution patterns in relation to a time horizon. Somecomponent systems create constraints and impact other component systems which over time undergotransformations such as self-organisation and self-regulation. Some component systems may adopt a distributionpattern as an output. Therefore, …
Modelling The Spreading Of Air Pollution With Weather Models, Andrea Weiss, Daniel Schaub, Peter Hofer
Modelling The Spreading Of Air Pollution With Weather Models, Andrea Weiss, Daniel Schaub, Peter Hofer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Industrial emissions affect the air quality in Switzerland. There is an inhomogeneous distribution of emission sources causing the pollution. Emissions from Switzerland as well as different European regions may contribute to the pollution measured in Switzerland. Further, the highly variable meteorological transport of the air pollution determines the air quality. As a decision basis for the air pollution control politics, it is of fundamental importance to identify emission sources, and to model the air pollution transport mechanisms. To access the meteorological transport of emissions, we employ weather models such as the ECMWF model (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading) …
Decision Support For Water Resource Management: An Application Example Of The Mulino Dss., J. Myšiak, Carlo Giupponi, A. Fassio
Decision Support For Water Resource Management: An Application Example Of The Mulino Dss., J. Myšiak, Carlo Giupponi, A. Fassio
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
MULINO is an EU RTD project, funded under the FP5-EESD programme. It aims at providing a Decision Support System (DSS) targeted at solving decision problems in the management of water resources. Through the integration of socio-economic and environmental modelling techniques with geographic information system (GIS) capabilities and multi-criteria decision aids, the MULINO-DSS aspires to be an operational tool which meets the needs of European water management authorities and facilitates the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. The application-driven approach to developing the MULINO-DSS combines the scientific background of the consortium members with local knowledge and decision support needs, expressed …
Integrating Structural Changes In Future Research And Modelling On The Seine River Basin, H. Kieken
Integrating Structural Changes In Future Research And Modelling On The Seine River Basin, H. Kieken
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
For years policy makers and researchers involved in the management of the Seine river basin haveshared a common representation of the system's structure and behaviour: Paris, in the centre, divides thewatershed into two very unequal parts, a "clean" upstream and the downstream where environmentalproblems occur due to Paris sewage. This representation resulted in both (1) a focus of the attention and theefforts of policy makers on the downstream area and (2) the structuring of scientific research on the SeineRiver in a very dissymmetric way, including the features of the models developed within the 12-year old andstill ongoing research programme dedicated …
Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck
Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present a framework for computational analysis of reachable futures, centred on the analysisof uncertainty, in which stakeholder participation is integral to generating environmental foresight. In ourcase study, we examine the long-term ecological behaviour of Lake Lanier, Georgia, south-eastern USA. Weelicit stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir during a foresight workshop session,from which we encode long-term behaviour definitions (scenarios) for the analysis. A generalised ecologicalmodel provides the mechanism for propagating a set of uncertain input factors – namely, process parameters,initial conditions, and forcing functions – into the future. We employ three sampling-based methods foridentifying and …
Application Of A Checklist For Quality Assistance In Environmental Modelling To An Energy Model, James Risbey, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs, Penny Kloprogge, Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtowicz, S.C. Quintana
Application Of A Checklist For Quality Assistance In Environmental Modelling To An Energy Model, James Risbey, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs, Penny Kloprogge, Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtowicz, S.C. Quintana
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The checklist is applied to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy …