Digital Commons Network^™

Predictive Analytics Supporting Labor Market Success: A Career Explorer For Job Seekers And Workforce Professionals In Michigan, Christopher J. O'Leary, Salomon Orellana, Kevin Doyle, Randall W. Eberts, Ben Damerow, Amy Meyers, Kenneth J. Kline, Anna Wilcoxson, Beth C. Truesdale, Scott Powell

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Career Explorer provides customized career exploration tools for workforce development staff and job seekers in Michigan. There are separate Career Explorer modules for mediated staff services and self-service by job seekers. The system was developed by the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics in collaboration with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Michigan Works! Southwest. It was funded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of Workforce Investment and the Schmidt Futures foundation’s Data for the American Dream (D4AD) project. In this paper, we describe specifications of the models behind the frontline-staff-mediated version of Career Explorer, which are …

Veterans In Workforce Development: Participation And Labor Market Outcomes, Colleen Chrisinger

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper compares the employment status and earnings of veterans and nonveterans following their receipt of public workforce development services in Washington State during the years 2002–2012. It also describes workforce program participation patterns for veterans and nonveterans to determine if veterans have equal or prioritized access to key programs, where prioritization is required by law. Based on tabulations and propensity score weighted regressions using administrative data, the results indicate slightly lower levels of participation by veterans than nonveterans in two major workforce programs (Wagner-Peyser and the Workforce Investment Act Adult program), and high participation in veteran-specific programs (Disabled Veterans …

The Secular Rise In Unemployment Insurance Exhaustions And What Can Be Done About It, Ralph E. Smith

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Over the past several decades, the rate at which regular unemployment insurance recipients run out of benefits before they have found jobs, even in a strong labor market, has been gradually rising. For example, in 1973, 27.4 percent of UI recipients exhausted their benefits; in 2007 (with a similar unemployment rate) 35.6 percent exhausted. This paper documents the increase in the exhaustion rate, along with the parallel rise in long-term unemployment; examines the consequences; and reviews what has been learned about the efficacy of various approaches for reversing, or at least halting, the trend.

The research on the rise in …

Policies For Displaced Workers: An American Perspective, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

American employment policy for displaced workers started in the Great Depression with programs for the employment service, unemployment insurance, work experience, and direct job creation. Assistance for workers displaced by foreign competition emerged in the 1960s along with formalized programs for occupational job skill training. The policy focus on displaced workers was sharpened in the 1980s through the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act and the Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment Assistance Act. Field experiments on services to dislocated workers led to Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services systems in all states, and federal rules adopted as part of the North …

Employment And Training Policy In The United States During The Economic Crisis, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines labor market conditions and public employment policies in the United States during what some are calling the Great Recession. We document the dramatic labor market changes that rapidly unfolded when the rate of gross domestic product growth turned negative, from the end of 2007 through early 2009. The paper reviews the resulting stress on labor market support programs and the broad federal response. That response came through modifications to existing programs and the introduction of new mechanisms to help Americans cope with job loss and protracted unemployment. The particular focus is on federally supported public programs for …

Sensitivity Testing Of Net Impact Estimates Of Workforce Development Programs Using Administrative Data, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper addresses the question of whether administrative data sources, such as performance monitoring data, can be used for program evaluation purposes. It argues that under certain circumstances, such data can be used. In particular, program performance data that are routinely gathered and monitored by administrators of many workforce development programs meet these circumstances. The paper goes on to demonstrate the point by using administrative data from the state of Washington to examine the net impact on earnings and employment of services provided to adults under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA). Because of a lack of consensus about appropriate net …

Temporary Help Service Firms' Use Of Employer Tax Credits: Implications For Disadvantaged Workers' Labor Market Outcomes, Sarah Hamersma, Carolyn J. Heinrich

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Temporary help services (THS) firms are increasing their hiring of disadvantaged individuals and claiming more subsidies for doing so. Do these subsidies-the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) and Welfare-to-Work Tax Credit (WtW)-create incentives that improve employment outcomes for THS workers? We examine the distinct effects of THS employment and WOTC/WtW subsidies using administrative and survey data. Results indicate that WOTC/WtW-certified THS workers have higher earnings than WOTC-eligible but uncertified THS workers. However, these workers have shorter job tenure and lower earnings than WOTC/WtW-certified workers in non-THS industries. Panel estimates suggest that these effects do not persist over time.

Temporary Agency Employment As A Way Out Of Poverty?, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The high incidence of temporary agency employment among participants in government employment programs has catalyzed debate about whether these jobs help the poor transition into stable employment and out of poverty. We provide direct evidence on this question through analysis of a Michigan welfare-to-work program in which program participants were randomly allocated across service providers ('contractors') with different job placement practices. We draw on a telephone survey of contractors and on administrative program data linked with wage records data on all participants entering the program over a three-and-a half-year period. Our survey evidence documents a consensus among contractors that temporary …

Do Job Search Rules And Reemployment Services Reduce Insured Unemployment?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper summarizes state unemployment insurance job search policies based on a recent survey of states by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. It then reviews research results on the effects of reemployment services on durations of insured unemployment. The paper documents how state administrative practices have changed and questions whether these changes may have affected monitoring of claimant compliance with work search requirements. Since state policies on job search and service referral can affect insured durations of unemployment, these policies can also affect the measured total unemployment rate.

Evaluating Job Training In Two Chinese Cities, Benu Bidani, Chor-Ching Goh, Niels-Hugo Blunch, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent years have seen a surge in the evidence on the impacts of active labor market programs for numerous countries. However, little evidence has been presented on the effectiveness of such programs in China. Recent economic reforms, associated massive lay-offs, and accompanying public retraining programs make China fertile ground for rigorous impact evaluations. This study evaluates retraining programs for laid-off workers in the cities of Shenyang and Wuhan using a comparison group design. To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of its kind in China. The evidence suggests that retraining helped workers find jobs in Wuhan, but had little …

Do Government Sponsored Vocational Training Programs Help The Unemployed Find Jobs? Evidence From Russia, Anton Nivorozhkin, Eugenity Nivorozhkin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The study estimates the employment effect of vocational training programs for the unemployed in urban Russia. The results of propensity score matching indicate that training programs had a non-negative overall effect on the program participants relative to non-participants.

Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes For Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence From Random Assignments, David H. Autor, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

A disproportionate share of low-skilled U.S. workers is employed by temporary help firms. These firms offer rapid entry into paid employment, but temporary help jobs are typically brief and it is unknown whether they foster longer-term employment. We draw upon an unusual, large-scale policy experiment in the state of Michigan to evaluate whether holding temporary help jobs facilitates labor market advancement for low-skilled workers. To identify these effects, we exploit the random assignment of welfare-to-work clients across numerous welfare service providers in a major metropolitan area. These providers feature substantially different placement rates at temporary help jobs but offer otherwise …

Some Reflections On The Use Of Administrative Data To Estimate The Net Impacts Of Workforce Programs In Washington State, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the results, methodology, and processes used in a series of net labor market impact studies done for the State of Washington over the past six years. All of the studies relied on administrative data and used a technique referred to as quasi-experimental evaluation. The program interventions were the federal- and state-funded workforce development programs. The paper sets out eight "reflections" for analysts and policy makers to consider. These reflections identify lessons learned and uncertainties or issues that need more consideration and scrutiny.

Using Administrative Data For Workforce Development Program Evaluation, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper addresses the question of whether administrative data that are collected for performance monitoring purposes can be used for program evaluation. It argues that under certain circumstances, such data can be used. In particular, data from the state of Washington are used to examine the effectiveness of services provided to adults under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA). The general theme of an emerging literature on techniques for nonexperimental evaluations of social programs is that many different techniques have appropriate asymptotic properties. A contribution of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of net impact estimators to various estimation techniques. …

Net Impact Estimates Of The Workforce Development System In Washington State, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study estimates the net impacts and private and social benefits and costs of nine workforce development programs administered in Washington State. Five of the programs serve job-ready adults: Community and Technical College Job Training, Private Career Schools, Apprenticeships, Job Training and Partnership Act (JTPA) Title III programs, and Community and Technical College Worker Retraining. Two of the programs serve adults with employment barriers : Community and Technical College Adult Basic Skills Education and JTPA Title II-A programs. The other two programs serve youth: JTPA Title II-C programs and Secondary Career Technical Education. The net impact analyses were conducted using …

Income Replacement And Reemployment Programs In Michigan And Neighboring States, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Governments in every developed industrial economy administer programs that partially replace the earnings of workers who suffer job loss or on-the-job injury. In addition, governments administer programs to help job losers gain reemployment, either through direct job placement (for those who are job-ready) or through retraining (for those who are not). This chapter describes and discusses current policy issues surrounding the main social insurance and reemployment programs in Michigan: Unemployment Insurance (UI), which partially replaces lost earnings following loss of a job; Workers' Compensation (WC), which pays for medical treatment, vocational rehabilitation, and lost earnings following a work-related injury or …

A Frontline Decision Support System For Georgia Career Centers, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Workforce Investment Act (WIA) of 1998 emphasizes the integration and coordination of employment services. Central to achieving this aim is the federal requirement that local areas receiving WIA funding must establish one-stop centers, where providers of various employment services within a local labor market are assembled in one location. A major challenge facing staff in these centers is the expected large volume of customers resulting from relaxed program eligibility rules. Nonetheless, resources for assessment and counseling are limited. To help frontline staff in one-stop centers quickly assess customer needs and properly target services, the U.S. Department of Labor has …

The Role Of Public Policy In Skills Development Of Black Workers In The 21st Century, Timothy J. Bartik, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper discusses the role of public policy in the skills development system of the U.S. It further examines the implications of that policy for the skill development and career progression of black workers. The paper describes the current "system" for skills development in the United States as a two- tiered system: The "first-chance" or conventional system allows individuals to proceed through an extensive public elementary, secondary, and postsecondary educational sector that is supplemented by private educational institutions and is followed by employer-provided job training and work experience. The "second-chance" system is designed for individuals who do not successfully traverse …

Intergovernmental Relations In Employment Policy: The United States Experience, Christopher J. O'Leary, Robert A. Straits

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Policies to regulate and support labor markets in the United States have mainly been an initiative of the federal government. Historically, states and localities were reluctant to act independently to build up worker rights and protections for fear of competitively disadvantaging resident industries with added costs. Federal constitutional authority to raise revenue and control commerce among the states governed development of labor market policy in the United States. Labor market support initiatives usually have been forged in difficult economic times with contributions and compromise from the full political spectrum. This paper examines the development of employment policy in the twentieth …

The Use Of Profiling To Target Services In State Welfare-To-Work Programs: An Example Of Process And Implementation, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to provide preliminary information about the design of a pilot project to test the efficacy of profiling and referring welfare-to-work participants. Welfare reform requires welfare recipients, with few exceptions, to participate in work activities and ultimately become economically self-sufficient. Welfare recipients possess a wide variation in job readiness skills, ranging from those who are ready and able to work to those who face significant barriers to employment. The challenge of the local administrator of welfare-to-work programs is to target services to those who need them the most. Yet, most programs provide the same services …

Preliminary Evidence On Impacts Of Active Labor Programs In Hungary And Poland, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

To ease the hardship associated with worker dislocation and to maintain social stability during the transition to markets, the governments of Hungary and Poland provide labor force members with unemployment compensation and a variety of active labor programs (ALPs). Follow-up surveys of participants in retraining, public works, wage subsidies, self-employment, and comparison groups were done in Hungary and Poland in early 1997. Preliminary analysis suggests positive net impacts for most ALPs and additive benefits from the use of the employment service in both countries. Strong evidence of nonrandom assignment to programs means that great care should be used in interpreting …

Using Administrative Data To Evaluate The Ohio Jobs Student Retention Program, Kevin M. Hollenbeck, Jean Kimmel, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper presents findings from a net impact evaluation of the Ohio JOBS Student Retention Program. The JOBS program, a component of the federal Aid to Families with Dependent Children (ADC) program, was required, in all states, for ADC recipients who met certain criteria. The Ohio JSRP was an activity pursued by some JOBS program clients in Ohio to fulfill their responsibilities in order to receive aid. The JSRP was a three-fold support program designed to facilitate entry to and success in programs of study at two-year community or technical colleges. We evaluated this state welfare policy while simultaneously dealing …

An Impact Analysis Of Employment Programs In Hungary, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper presents estimates of the impact of retraining and public service employment (PSE) on reemployment and earnings in the Republic of Hungary during the early phase of post-Socialist economic restructuring. Since assignment to programs resulted in groups with vastly dissimilar characteristics, impact estimates were computed using a variety of methods. Controlling for observable characteristics, retraining may have slightly improved the chances for reemployment in a non-subsidized job, but the gain in reemployment was probably not sufficient to justify the cost of retraining. However, since the durability of jobs appears to be better for those who were retrained, the long …

Using Performance Indicators To Improve The Effectiveness Of Welfare-To-Work Programs, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper argues that it is feasible to develop good indicators of the performance of a particular welfare-to-work program, office, or contractor. Performance indicators can motivate local offices, contractors, and staff to be more effective in achieving the program's goals. Performance indicators can provide information on what program strategies lead to the greatest long-run success. To be most useful, performance indicators must be simple and timely and control for factors other than the program's effectiveness that influence whether welfare recipients "succeed."

Employer Training Needs In Hawaii: Summary Report, Stephen A. Woodbury, University Of Hawaii At Manoa, Industrial Relations Center

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Survey of Employer Training Needs in Hawaii was undertaken to gather information and data on the needs and preferences of employers in Hawaii regarding government assistance with training. The need for such information was created by passage of Act 68, Session Laws of Hawaii 1991, which created the Hawaii Employment and Training Fund "to assist employers and workers through innovative programs to include, but not be limited to, business-specific training, upgrade training, new occupational skills, management skills, and support services to improve the long-term employability of Hawaii's people."

Dislocated Worker Human Capital Depreciation And Recovery, Kevin M. Hollenbeck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Previous studies have estimated the "human capital depreciation" of women re-entering the work force after voluntary, lengthy interruptions. Those studies have found reduced real wages and furthermore the decrease is positively related to the length of the interruption. Upon re-entry, however, real wages grow rapidly as human capital is restored. This paper develops a model of the wage histories of dislocated workers. Similar to labor force re-entrants, those dislocated workers who become re-employed would experience wages below their final wage prior to dislocation and the decrease should be associated with the length of dislocation. However, the model suggests that since …