Digital Commons Network^™

Modeling Post-Fire Successional Trajectories Under Climate Change In Interior Alaska Using Landis Ii, Shelby A. Weiss

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Alaska boreal forest ecosystems are experiencing a greater frequency of wildfire relative to the region’s historic fire regime. These increases in fire frequency, as well as annual burned area, increase the probability of forests re-burning within shorter intervals than were experienced historically. Such changes to the fire regime have the potential to shift successional trajectories in this ecosystem. To better understand potential changes in vegetation composition following short-interval, repeat fires, we are using LANDIS-II, a forest landscape model, to simulate changes in forest composition in response to climate change and increasing fire frequency. This seminar will include a description of …

Realist Evaluation: A Systems Approach For Understanding And Assessing Complex Social Programs, Dora Raymaker

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Realist evaluation, a theory-driven approach to program evaluation grounded in realist philosophy, is designed to address the question: What works for whom, to what extent, in what circumstances, and why? It is emerging as a powerful alternative to traditional approaches to intervention evaluation, such as randomized control trials, particularly in settings of high complexity and/or high stakeholder heterogeneity. Realist evaluation takes a holistic, non-linear, systems approach, and can support any research methodologies. This seminar provides an overview of realist evaluation and discussion of potential applications with programs targeting social change.

Statistical Analysis Of Social Network Change, Teresa D. Schmidt

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

We explore two statistical methods that infer social network structures and statistically test those structures for change over time: regression-based differential network analysis (R-DNA) and information theory-based differential network analysis (I-DNA). RDNA is adapted from bioinformatics and I-DNA employs reconstructability analysis. Both methods are used to analyze Medicaid claims data from one-year periods before and after the formation of the Health Share of Oregon Coordinated Care Organization (CCO). We hypothesized that Health Share’s CCO formation would be followed by several changes in the healthcare delivery network.

Application of R-DNA and I-DNA to claims data involves three steps: (a) the inference …

A Computational Model For Recovery From Brain Injury, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

A computational simulation model calculates recovery trajectories following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Prior publications include a multi-scale framework for studying concussion and a systems-level causal loop diagram (CLD) and discussion of feedback processes. The scope of the computational model goes beyond concussion to include all severities of TBI. A set of first order ordinary differential equations and their associated parameters determines recovery trajectories. While highly speculative, the model serves to demonstrate the potential utility of computational models in this context. Much more research will be needed to create a properly supported research model that could be used for clinical trial …

Fractal Dimension As Objective Function In A Genetic Algorithm For Application In Architectural Design, John Charles Driscoll

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

One of the goals of The Green New Deal Resolution reads, “upgrading all existing buildings in the United States and building new buildings to achieve maximal energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability, including through electrification.”

How can this realistically be done given the sheer number of buildings in the United States? This presents a ‘wicked’ problem that calls out for a systems approach. This is also, in essence, a design problem. As data scientists we are used to using models to analyze data but there is another aspect to these models that can be used not to …

Managing Healthcare Data Assets As A Complex Adaptive System, Katie Clifton

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

A major project is underway to develop a shared platform for data and analytics in a highly federated healthcare delivery organization. In the status quo data environment, analysts have integrated information from various domains — medical records, claims, membership — to produce a multitude of reports and analysis. Duplicative, mis-aligned, and siloed datasets were created as an unintended consequence.

One objective of the project is to produce outcomes (reports, analysis) that are more standardized and efficient than the status quo without sacrificing adaptability. Standards and practices are being intentionally developed as a mechanism for this emerging system to achieve more …

Systems Thinking As A Design Process, Elizabeth Lockwood

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

During my master’s degree I analyzed sustainable practices in the built environment. What came from that work was a deep level of understanding that the current practices and rating systems appeared to be technical approaches to a larger system at play. I realized I have a gift to see hidden connections and find links between systems. Currently I use systems mapping as part of the design process to unearth the hidden elements in a system. I believe it is important to understand where designers, clients and stakeholders can insert themselves into a system. Part of this understanding is having empathy …

Iot And Digitization Will Reconnect System Engineering And Science, John Blyler

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

The fully connected world is quickly becoming a reality. Architects and developers of this new world must understand both the hardware and software basics of IoT and IIoT systems as well as the proven way to deal with the complexities of the integration of sensors, processors, wireless connectivity, edge to cloud networks, data partitioning and processing, AI, machine language, digital threads and twins, and much more. Such complexity can only be handled with a systems-of-systems (SoS) engineering approach.

But while systems engineering may hold many of the solutions to IoT challenges, systems engineering must evolve from its traditional role. Some …

Performativity Of Models, Rajesh Venkatachalapathy

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Inspired by Latour's work in social studies of science and technology, Callon, MacKenzie and others developed a performativity critique of economics. Building on this, Healy (2015) recently discussed the performativity of network models. While useful, I move away from French continental philosophy to avoid unavoidable comparisons with Foucauldian conceptions of performativity. Instead, I use ideas from vanilla historical sociology of science and technology and cognitive science to understand performativity.

I first discuss Healy's critique of network models. Keeping with the worst traditions in systems science, I greedily apply this concept to all models in science and engineering by first critiquing …

What If Our Beliefs About A System Are Not Wholly Accurate? What If?, Gary Langford

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

For most people, a system is a construct with vexing complexities, many many parts, and perhaps wrapped with a goal or intention. Add to that simple construct a set of terminologies that are commonly applied when speaking of “systems” and we just might have veered away from discoveries of imminent importance. Ask yourself, “You said it was a system, but how did that statement help you solve your problem? How far off would we have to be in our perception of systemsness for us to make mistakes of consequence? One Hundred Billion are lost annually in software projects that failed …

The Complexities Of Open Data, Hector Dominguez

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Hector Dominguez is the current Open Data Coordinator at the City of Portland, and there are several lessons learned and strategies developed in the several months of work in this position. Hector will share some challenges on creating trusted and reliable data and information services, as well as the opportunities to work with Urban Data to resolve city challenges and to support achieving the City's goals in the coming years.

In this talk, Hector will share how modeling and defining the right metrics are not the only factors to implementing a citywide program, but rather, how ethics, communications and strategy …

Latent Space Models For Temporal Networks, Jasper Alt

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

In many contexts we may expect the structure of networks to be derived from some kind of abstract distance between actors. We refer to this phenomenon as homophily: like nodes connect to like. For example, people with similar beliefs may be more likely to form social relations.

We formalize this notion by positioning the nodes in a latent space representing the possible values of the homophilous attributes. Realistically, we should expect latent attributes like beliefs to change over time in some nontrivial way, and the structures of temporal networks to evolve accordingly. We introduce a model of latent space dynamics …

Systems Evolution And Engineering Thermodynamics, Terry Bristol

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Despite impressive contributions, the philosophical foundations of systems theory remain in flux. In the practical context, the proper understanding of the relation of the systems framework to classical mechanics and quantum theory remains unresolved.

I argue our understanding of systems theory is advanced by recognizing the crucial link to engineering and thermodynamics. Engineering thermodynamics is more general than the historically dominant ‘rational mechanical’ thermodynamics of Clausius, Boltzmann, the Entropy Cult (viz. Jaynes’s MEP) and the recent information theory.

That systems theory’s philosophical foundations are in a philosophy of engineering and an engineering worldview should be no surprise, given the modern …

Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …

Four Decades Of Systems Science Teaching And Research At Psu, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Systems science (SySc) is defined, and a brief background is provided regarding some of the systems science-related societies, conferences, journals, research institutes, and educational programs. The SySc program at Portland State University in Portland, OR, USA, is described in detail, including its history, curriculum, students, faculty, and degrees granted. Dissertation topics are summarized via word diagrams created from dissertation titles over the years. MS degrees, student placement, and undergraduate courses are also mentioned, and future plans for the program are described including its support for sustainability education.

Civic Ecology: Living Community Systems For Sustainability, Tim Smith

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Civic Ecology is a stakeholder-driven, whole systems framework for creating sustainable communities. The framework focuses on empowering citizens of all ages, cultures, and abilities to envision, create, and manage their community’s unique “software” -- the integrated energy, nutrient, water, waste, material, and food systems, as well as economic flows and cultural interactions that animate their place. Exploring and supporting these flows allows communities to enhance their local wealth (environmental, economic, and social), resilience, and competitiveness, and help them take control of designing and managing their future through collaboration and innovation. The Civic Ecology framework can be the foundation upon which …

System Dynamics Modeling Of Prescription Opioid Pain Reliever Abuse, Alexandra Nielsen

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

The nonmedical use of prescription opioid pain relievers and associated overdose deaths have been labeled an epidemic by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. While these medicines play an important role in the treatment of pain, the benefits of opioids for the treatment of pain need to be balanced against these very real risks. Alex has been working closely with Professor Wayne Wakeland, Teresa Schmidt, and Dr. Dennis McCarty (OHSU) to create a dynamic systems-level model of opioid use, abuse, and diversion in order to give context to current research in this area and to provide a better understanding …

The Intersection Between Science And Computer Science Is Almost Empty, Dick Hamlet

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Traditionally, a science such as physics overlaps with mathematics and engineering in a way that has been astonishingly productive. The math provides precise expression for the science, which in turn supplies the engineering with the information it needs to exploit physical phenomena. Computer science naturally wishes to put itself in the center of the traditional picture as a science. Unfortunately, it won't wash. The `science' of programming is pure and simple mathematics, not science. The distinction is more than linguistic, since science and mathematics have quite distinct goals and methods. By making the wrong choice, computer science research has been …

Levels Of Altruism, Martin Zwick, Jeffrey Alan Fletcher

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

The phenomenon of altruism extends from the biological realm to the human sociocultural realm. This paper sketches a coherent outline of multiple types of altruism of progressively increasing scope that span these two realms and are grounded in an ever-expanding sense of “self.” Discussion of this framework notes difficulties associated with altruisms at different levels. It links scientific ideas about the evolution of cooperation and about hierarchical order to perennial philosophical and religious concerns. It offers a conceptual background for inquiry into societal challenges that call for altruistic behavior, especially the challenge of environmental and social sustainability.

This talk was …

Bayesian And Related Methods: Techniques Based On Bayes' Theorem, Mehmet Vurkaç

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Bayes' theorem is a simple algebraic consequence of conditional probability. Yet, its consequences are critical to philosophy, society, and technology. Starting from its simple derivation, we will show how its interpretation in terms of base rates (priors) and class-conditional likelihoods illuminates everyday problems in medicine and law, and provides signal processing, communications, machine learning, model selection, and other applications of statistics with powerful classification and estimation tools. Next, we will briefly examine some of the ways in which this theorem can be adopted to include multiple attributes, contexts, hypotheses, and levels of risk. Methods derived from or related to Bayes’ …

Neuroscience Of Personality: Principles Of The Psyche As A Living System, Dario Nardi

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

The brain is a complex living system. Using colorful slides and anecdotes, Dario Nardi, PhD will overview his hands-on research of the past 5 years in his social neuroscience lab using EEG technology to better understand the neocortex. He spends 2 to 3 hours with each subject, offering a variety of tasks from solo activities like meditating, drawing, and recalling to social activities like poker and speed-dating. The results are in. The neocortex relies upon a dynamic of modules, circuits, and holistic modes to continuously coordinate with the environment in both a top-down and a bottom-up manner. Moreover, individual differences …

Ecosystem Services: The Making Of A Metaphor We Live (?) By, Richard B. Norgaard

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

What started as a humble metaphor to help us think about our relation to nature has become integral to how we are addressing the future of humanity and the course of biological evolution. The metaphor of nature as a stock that provides a flow of services is insufficient for the difficulties we are in or the task ahead. Indeed, combined with the mistaken presumption that we can analyze a global problem within a partial equilibrium economic framework and reach a new economy project-by-project without major institutional change, the simplicity of the stock-flow framework blinds us to the complexity of the …

Complexity Theory And Political Change: Talcott Parsons Occupies Wall Street, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Complexity theory can assist our understanding of social systems and social phenomena. This paper illustrates this assertion by linking Talcott Parsons' model of societal structure to the Occupy Wall Street movement. Parsons' model is used to organize ideas about the underlying causes of the recession that currently afflicts the US. While being too abstract to depict the immediate factors that precipitated this crisis, the model is employed to articulate the argument that vulnerability to this type of event results from flaws in societal structure. This implies that such crises can be avoided only if, in Parsons' terms, structural change occurs …

New Ways To Manage Information As A Good That Improves With Use, Ida Kubiszewski

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Information has some unique characteristics. Unlike most other goods and services, it is neither rival (use by one prevents use by others) nor non-rival (use by one does not affect use by others), but is enhanced with increased use, or ‘additive’. Therefore a unique allocation system for both the production and consumption of information is needed. Under the current market-based allocation system, production of information is often limited through the exclusive rights produced by patents and copyrights. This limits scientists' ability to share and build on each other's knowledge. We break the problem down into three separate questions: (1) do …

Participatory Action Research: Science And Social Change, Dora Raymaker

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Participatory Action Research (PAR) is a general collaborative approach to inquiry that includes research "subjects" as members of the research team. Useful in any setting involving groups of people, PAR has revolutionized research with minority communities. Some "flavors" of PAR, such as Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) have been developed to address issues of power and privilege, to change dynamics between science, society, and minorities, and to enable and encourage systems change. This talk discusses the theory and practice of PAR as a research approach, drawing from real world examples in health sciences research with minority communities defined by disability or …

Instructional Practices For Teaching Systems Concepts, Dario Nardi

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

15-minute presentations on the following three topics:

I. Live Group Simulations Promote Learning of Systems Concepts
Systems concepts such as attractors, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, and emergence may be hard for learners to grasp. Even when they follow a lecture or demonstration, they may wonder about practical use. How might we more effectively convey systems concepts? For fourteen years, I have used group activities to stimulate learning of systems concepts and multi-agent behavior in general. The activity might involve as few as ten participants or 150-plus. Whether you have 10 minutes, 90 minutes, or 4 weeks, there is an effective …

Evolving Machine Morality Strategies Through Multiagent Simulations, David Burke

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

There is a general consensus among robotics researchers that the world of the future will be filled with autonomous and semi-autonomous machines. There is less of a consensus, though, on the best approach to instilling a sense of 'machine morality' in these systems so that they will be able to have effective interactions with humans in an increasingly complex world. In my talk, we take a brief look at some existing approaches to computational ethics, and then describe work we've undertaken creating multiagent simulations involving moral decision-making during strategic interactions. In these simulations, agents make choices about whether to cooperate …

Systems Ideas For The Scientific And Societal Imperatives Of The Coastal Ocean: Case Of The Bp Oil Gusher In The Gulf Of Mexico, Spring & Summer 2010, Christopher Mooers

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

In recent decades, great progress has been made in advancing the scientific understanding of the coastal ocean (i.e., the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)) across a broad set of disciplines. Simultaneously, the societal use of the coastal ocean has skyrocketed through, for example, increased shipping & boating, sports & commercial fishing, and exploitation of non-living resources, such as, oil & gas extraction and sand & gravel mining. International law and national policy assign coastal nations the responsibility for stewardship (i.e., wise management) of their respective EEZs. The scope of the stewardship and applications can be summarized as (1) …

Hardware Acceleration Of Inference Computing: The Numenta Htm Algorithm, Dan Hammerstrom

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

In this presentation I will describe the latest version of the Numenta HTM Cortical Learning Algorithm and why it is interesting for doing research into radical new computer architectures. Then I will discuss the hardware acceleration research we are doing, and briefly look at some preliminary applications development.

Regional Trade Agreements And The Pattern Of Trade: A Networks Approach, Rossitza Wooster, Javier A. Reyes, Stuart Shirell

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

This paper uses a complex network approach for the analysis of bilateral trade data between countries over the period 1970-2000. We compute the network community structure for every year between 1970 and 2000 and compare it to null community structures that emerge from various models based on regional and geographic classifications, the implementation of RTA's and/or on gravity models of trade. Our results show that RTA formation appears to have a cyclical pattern on the world trade network community structure. We document periods where bilateral trade flows and the structure of the world trade network are consistent with those predicted …