Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Entire DC Network
Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger
Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger
Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current
A Black Swan, as termed by Nassim Taleb, is an unexpected, high magnitude event that is often rationalized in hindsight. 9/11 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 are two examples of these tail probability events. Though COVID-19 has been regarded as momentous and unexpected, Taleb does not credit it as a true Black Swan. This paper aims to compare COVID-19 to these recent Black Swans in terms of predictability and significance. Cointegration was tested across 11 major sectors. Further economic indicators were explored with the goal of discussing the broader context of each event. It was concluded that COVID-19 was …