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Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak
Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Operational forecasters face a plethora of challenges when making a forecast; they must consider multiple data sources ranging from radar and satellites to surface and upper air observations, to numerical weather prediction output. Forecasts must be done in a limited window of time, which adds an additional layer of difficulty to the task. These challenges are exacerbated by winter mixed precipitation events where slight differences in thermodynamic profiles or changes in terrain create different precipitation types across small areas. In addition to being difficult to forecast, mixed precipitation events can have large-scale impacts on our society.
Large-Scale Flow Patterns Conducive To Central American Extreme Precipitation Events During Autumn, Alexander Kyle Mitchell
Large-Scale Flow Patterns Conducive To Central American Extreme Precipitation Events During Autumn, Alexander Kyle Mitchell
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Extreme precipitation events (EPEs), characterized by daily widespread heavy rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile across Central America, can have large impacts on agriculture, life, and property during the rainy season. EPEs during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) autumn, however, have been observed to be influenced by both tropical and extratropical originating phenomena such as easterly waves and cold surges, respectively. Given the limited research in this area, the novelty of this work is to apply a systematic approach for identifying and better understanding EPEs, and investigating their associated synoptic-scale variability using daily high-resolution observations and reanalysis products over Central America. An …
The Simulated Sensitivity Of The North American Monsoon At Convection-Permitting Scales, Brendan Wallace
The Simulated Sensitivity Of The North American Monsoon At Convection-Permitting Scales, Brendan Wallace
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The North American Monsoon (NAM) is a major contributor to annual rainfall for large portions of the North American Southwest. Much of the prior work examining the NAM using numerical models has been done at scales exceeding 20-km grid spacing. At these coarse scales, unresolved processes and poorly resolved geographic features can impact model performance. This can present a problem when simulating the NAM particularly with regard to orographic precipitation, precipitation on sub-daily timescales, and land surface-atmosphere interactions. This dissertation seeks to better understand the NAM through examination of several sets of convection-permitting regional climate model output. The primary goal …
Changes In Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation In Over Taiwan And The Northeast United States : Past And Future, Lexi Henny
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Large-scale extreme precipitation over (1) the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States and (2) Taiwan is attributed to weather types such as atmospheric river (AR), TC, and extreme integrated vapor transport (IVT). Statistically significant increases in season-total EP day precipitation are seen at many GHCN stations in winter, summer, and fall in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast region, and at certain high-elevation grid points in Taiwan Mei-yu season. During the cold season of winter and spring, the U.S.-based changes come from AR-associated EP days and are associated with strengthened southwesterly winds and IVT either within EP days, in the season mean, or …
Understanding Changes In Precipitation, Wildfires, And Possible Governing Factors Over Central Equatorial Africa, Yan Jiang
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Tropical rainforests are global epicenters of biodiversity and modulators of climate. A long-term drying trend has occurred in the Congo Basin since the 1980s and this raises great concerns for sustaining the Congolese rainforest and local rain-fed agriculture. Motivated by documented rainfall changes and the need to improve understanding of main factors influencing precipitation variability and changes in Central Equatorial Africa (CEA), this dissertation conducts synthesized studies on 1) quantifying variations in precipitation seasonality by focusing on dry season duration, 2) estimating cascading wildfire risks associated with changes in precipitation patterns, and estimating impacts of 3) the tropical Indian Ocean …