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Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger
Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Simulation and decision support tools facilitate a process of reasoning about potential future development paths of a system, e.g. a river system, under alternative management strategies. Joint scenario development and analysis with river basin authorities and stakeholders can inform and structure discussions on management goals and major uncertainties affecting river basin management in future. Tools can support the determination of strategies that balance water allocation between multiple users, such as irrigation and the environment, and measures to cope with uncertainties. The GIS-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to facilitate exploration of alternative water management strategies for the degraded Amudarya …
Scenario Reoptimisation Under Data Uncertainty, Antonio Manca, Giovanni M. Sechi, Paola Zuddas
Scenario Reoptimisation Under Data Uncertainty, Antonio Manca, Giovanni M. Sechi, Paola Zuddas
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Many dynamic planning and management problems are typically characterised by a level ofuncertainty regarding the value of data input such as supply and demand patterns. Assigning inaccuratevalues to them could invalidate the results of the study. Consequently, deterministic models are inadequatefor the representation of these problems where the most crucial parameters are either unknown or are basedon an uncertain future. In these cases, the scenario analysis technique could be an alternative approach.Scenario analysis can model many real problems in which decisions are based on an uncertain future, whoseuncertainty is described by means of a set of possible future outcomes, called …
Reliable And Valid Identification Of A Small Number Of Global Emission Scenarios, Olaf Tietje
Reliable And Valid Identification Of A Small Number Of Global Emission Scenarios, Olaf Tietje
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Numerous scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have been created, that aredifficult to communicate to decision makers. To identify few significantly different and consistent scenariosis time consuming, requires deep understanding of the underlying driving forces, and may depend on theindividual perspective of the scenario analyst. Developed from an expert based scenario technique a newmethod was developed, which in step 1 analyzes each given scenario with respect to the relations between itscharacteristics (e.g. parameters, state variables). This analysis may include a very large number of qualitative('nominal'), logical, ordinal and metric characteristics. In step 2, a few consistent and significantly differentscenarios are …
A Dual-Scale Modelling Approach To Integrated Resource Management In East And South-East Asia: Challenges And Potential Solutions, Reimund Rötter, Marrit Van Den Berg, Huib Hengsdijk, Joost Wolf, Martin Van Ittersum, Herman Van Keulen, Epifania O. Agustin, Tran Thuc Son, Nguyen Xuan Lai, Wang Guanghuo, Alice G. Laborte
A Dual-Scale Modelling Approach To Integrated Resource Management In East And South-East Asia: Challenges And Potential Solutions, Reimund Rötter, Marrit Van Den Berg, Huib Hengsdijk, Joost Wolf, Martin Van Ittersum, Herman Van Keulen, Epifania O. Agustin, Tran Thuc Son, Nguyen Xuan Lai, Wang Guanghuo, Alice G. Laborte
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Currently, in many of the highly productive lowland areas of E and SE Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of (agricultural) land use can be observed. Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-agricultural uses. As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingly complex. Technological innovations at the field/farm level are needed but not sufficient – changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential. To support decisionmaking in such situations, we advocate a multi-scale modelling approach embedded in a solid participatory process. …