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A Fast Evolutionary-Based Meta-Modelling Approach For The Calibration Of A Rainfall-Runoff Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Dragan Savic, Yang Liu, Henrik Madsen
A Fast Evolutionary-Based Meta-Modelling Approach For The Calibration Of A Rainfall-Runoff Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Dragan Savic, Yang Liu, Henrik Madsen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Population-based search methods such as evolutionary algorithm, shuffled complex algorithm, simulated annealing and ant colony search are increasing used as automatic calibration methods for a wide range of water and environmental simulation models. However, despite the advances in computer power, it may still be impractical to rely exclusively on computationally expensive (time consuming) simulation for many real world complex problems. This paper proposed the use of meta-models to replace numerical simulation models for the purpose of calibration. Meta-models are essentially “model of the model”. The meta-model used in this study is the artificial neural network and, when coupled with genetic …
An Evolutionary-Based Real-Time Updating Technique For An Operational Rainfall-Runoff Forecasting Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Edward Keedwell, Oliver Pollard
An Evolutionary-Based Real-Time Updating Technique For An Operational Rainfall-Runoff Forecasting Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Edward Keedwell, Oliver Pollard
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Error-correction is widely known to be one of the effective methods of real-time updating and tends to be the easiest method to implement and couple with existing simulation models. Methods such as autoregressive (AR) or autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) have been widely used but the main disadvantage of such approaches is the prior assumption of the form of error correlation. Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary-based technique, can be used to generate a suitable expression linking the observations, simulation model results and the error in the simulation for the purpose of error correction. In this study, GP functions …
Tools And Approaches For Evaluating Uncertainty In Streamflow Predictions In Ungauged Uk Catchments, Neil Mcintyre, Hyosang Lee, Howard Wheater, Andrew Young
Tools And Approaches For Evaluating Uncertainty In Streamflow Predictions In Ungauged Uk Catchments, Neil Mcintyre, Hyosang Lee, Howard Wheater, Andrew Young
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A main limitation of using conceptual models for predicting flow in ungauged catchments is theerrors in identified relationships between calibrated conceptual parameters and known (or estimated)catchment descriptors. It is hypothesised here that these errors may be reduced if the modeller does notexplicitly identify relationships, but applies all feasible models within a Bayesian averaging scheme. Thismaintains the information about parameter inter-dependencies obtained as part of local calibration, and alsoprovides a strong basis for integrating various sources of uncertainty into the predicted average flow andassociated confidence intervals. A case study of UK catchments provides encouraging results.
Appropriate Accuracy Of Models For Decision-Support Systems: Case Example For The Elbe River Basin, Jean-Luc De Kok, Koen U. Van Der Wal, Martijn J. Booij
Appropriate Accuracy Of Models For Decision-Support Systems: Case Example For The Elbe River Basin, Jean-Luc De Kok, Koen U. Van Der Wal, Martijn J. Booij
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Given the growing complexity of water-resources management there will be an increasing need for integrated tools to support policy analysis, communication, and research. A key aspect of the design is the combination of process models from different scientific disciplines in an integrated system. In general these models differ in sensitivity and accuracy, while non-linear and qualitative models can be present. The current practice is that the preferences of the designers of a decision-support system, and practical considerations such as data availability guide the selection of models and data. Due to a lack of clear scientific guidelines the design becomes an …
Comparison Of Hydrologic Simulations Using Regionalised And Catchment-Calibrated Parameter Sets For Three Catchments In England, David Maréchal, Ian P. Holman
Comparison Of Hydrologic Simulations Using Regionalised And Catchment-Calibrated Parameter Sets For Three Catchments In England, David Maréchal, Ian P. Holman
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The objective of this study is to assess the performance of a regional hydrological model in catchments treated as ungauged. The Catchment Resources and Soil Hydrology (CRASH) model is a daily, catchment-scale, rainfall-runoff model that has been previously regionalised for England and Wales. In this paper, the regional CRASH is evaluated in three catchments located in East Anglia – eastern England - and it is compared to the catchment-specifically calibrated CRASH. The results demonstrate that the performance criteria are met in the three catchments for both the Nash-Sutcliffe (R2) and the percent bias efficiency indexes. The R2 results of the …