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Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger
Application Of A Gis-Based Simulation Tool To Analyze And Communicate Uncertainties In Future Water Availability In The Amudarya River Delta, Maja Schlüter, Nadja Rüger
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Simulation and decision support tools facilitate a process of reasoning about potential future development paths of a system, e.g. a river system, under alternative management strategies. Joint scenario development and analysis with river basin authorities and stakeholders can inform and structure discussions on management goals and major uncertainties affecting river basin management in future. Tools can support the determination of strategies that balance water allocation between multiple users, such as irrigation and the environment, and measures to cope with uncertainties. The GIS-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to facilitate exploration of alternative water management strategies for the degraded Amudarya …
Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung
Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The paper focuses on implications of uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100.000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting …
A Bayesian Belief Network For Modelling Brown Trout (Salmo Trutta) Populations In Switzerland, M. E. Borsuk, Peter Reichert, Patricia Burkhardt-Holm
A Bayesian Belief Network For Modelling Brown Trout (Salmo Trutta) Populations In Switzerland, M. E. Borsuk, Peter Reichert, Patricia Burkhardt-Holm
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A Bayesian belief network is described that integrates the various scientific findings of an interdisciplinary research project on brown trout and their habitat in Switzerland. The network is based on a population model for brown trout, which is extended to include the effect of natural and anthropogenic influence factors. Uncertainty is included in the form of conditional probability distributions describing model relationships. The model is applied to brown trout populations at twelve locations in four river basins. Model testing consisted of comparing predictions of juvenile and adult density under current conditions to the results of recent population surveys. The relative …
How Tight Are The Limits To Land And Water Use? – Com-Bined Impacts Of Food Demand And Climate Change, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Mülle, Alberte Bondeau, Pascalle Smith, Wolfgang Lucht
How Tight Are The Limits To Land And Water Use? – Com-Bined Impacts Of Food Demand And Climate Change, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Mülle, Alberte Bondeau, Pascalle Smith, Wolfgang Lucht
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on re-gional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). …
Assessing Management Systems For The Conservation Of Open Landscapes Using An Integrated Landscape Model Approach, M. Rudner, R. Biedermann, B. Schröder, M. Kleyer
Assessing Management Systems For The Conservation Of Open Landscapes Using An Integrated Landscape Model Approach, M. Rudner, R. Biedermann, B. Schröder, M. Kleyer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The aim of the MOSAIK-project is to test alternative management systems regarding theirefficiency in maintaining the characteristic species composition of dry grasslands. We present an integratedlandscape model approach to test an alternative management system for applicability in preserving drygrasslands. By rototilling, i.e. cyclic, massive disturbance in the vegetation cover, we established a controlledmosaic cycle comprising a successional series from heavily disturbed areas to grassland and shrubs. Thedisturbance regime affects the landscape on different temporal and spatial scales. The resulting shiftingmosaics determine the habitat qualities for plant and animal species. Changes in habitat quality may reducethe survival of local or regional …
Land Use And Hydrological Management: Icham, An Integrated Model At A Regional Scale In Northeastern Thailand, Nigel Hall, R. Lertsirivorakul, R. Greiner, S. Yongvanit, A. Yuvaniyama, R. Last, W. Milne-Home
Land Use And Hydrological Management: Icham, An Integrated Model At A Regional Scale In Northeastern Thailand, Nigel Hall, R. Lertsirivorakul, R. Greiner, S. Yongvanit, A. Yuvaniyama, R. Last, W. Milne-Home
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Soil salinity is a major problem in Northeastern Thailand as a result of the interaction of groundwater flow systems with widespread deposits of rock salt. Successful salinity management would involve changing land use and water balances at a regional scale with a time scale of 30 to 50 years. The scientific issue requires multidisciplinary cooperation including hydrologists, hydrogeologists, agronomists and economic and social researchers. A major issue is the real complexity of the quantitative relationships driving salinity under different environments and the uncertainty resulting from data limitations. This requires that modelling frameworks be open and accessible to a range of …