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Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten
Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Challenges arise when it comes to capturing complex patterns of human behaviour in agent-based simulations. For example, human beings are not limited to one identity, to local levels of awareness or to acting on predetermined rules. Seemingly immune from these difficulties are some self-referential problems – situations where agents’ forecasts act to create the world they are trying to forecast. The emergent complexity in these systems results more from ways in which agents interact and react rather than from their individual idiosyncrasies. A well-known example is the Bar problem, whose collective regularities are relatively insensitive to the vagaries of individuals. …
Relating Choice Of Agent Rationality To Agent Model Uncertainty - An Experimental Study, D. E. Reusser, M. Hare, Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Relating Choice Of Agent Rationality To Agent Model Uncertainty - An Experimental Study, D. E. Reusser, M. Hare, Claudia Pahl-Wostl
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The importance of model uncertainties arising from different assumptions about human behavior as opposed to parameter uncertainty is often neglected in integrated models for policy development. In this study, so-called agent model uncertainty is estimated in relation to the choice of agent rationality. A classification scheme is proposed which allows us organize decision models according to their deviation from full rationality. Five decision models covering the whole range from full rationality to maximum deviation from rationality (random decisions) are classified. They are then used in an existing integrated model simulating crop fertilizer usage and related threshold policies for groundwater protection. …
Aphid Population Dynamics In Agricultural Landscapes: An Agent-Based Simulation Model, Hazel Parry, Andrew J. Evans, Derek Morgan
Aphid Population Dynamics In Agricultural Landscapes: An Agent-Based Simulation Model, Hazel Parry, Andrew J. Evans, Derek Morgan
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Presently, there are many population models in existence, but these are often case specific,function at a single spatial scale and fail to tackle the complexity arising from individual actions andinteractions that exist in the real-world. A spatially explicit agent-based simulation model has beendeveloped to represent aphid population dynamics in agricultural landscapes. Over time, the aphid agentsinteract with the landscape and with one another. The construction of the model is detailed, includingparameterisation and coupling to a geographical information system (GIS). The results show that a spatialmodelling approach that considers both landscape properties and factors such as wind speed and directionprovides greater …
Modelling The Dynamics Of Public Attention Towards Environmental Issues, Jens Newig, Julia Hesselmann
Modelling The Dynamics Of Public Attention Towards Environmental Issues, Jens Newig, Julia Hesselmann
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Public attention, traced over time, often displays seemingly paradox behaviour: Contrary towhat one might expect, public concern is seldom highest when the environmental conditions are the worst.Rather, concern most often rises when conditions have already become better. Furthermore, public attentiondynamics frequently shows self-reinforcing behaviour resulting in distinct cycles, e.g. due to sometrigger event. In this paper, public attention is viewed as a social macro-level phenomenon that is soughtto be explained by the interaction of a multitude of single actors, namely individual citizens, the press, andpoliticians. First, a causal model based on rational choice theory is constructed in order to elucidate …
Modelling Self-Organization Processes In Socio- Economic And Ecological Systems For Supporting The Adaptive Management Of Forests, Alexander Kaufmann, Ernst Gebetsroither
Modelling Self-Organization Processes In Socio- Economic And Ecological Systems For Supporting The Adaptive Management Of Forests, Alexander Kaufmann, Ernst Gebetsroither
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Managing the numerous and interrelated processes between man and nature in order to userenewable resources in a sustainable way is confronted with conflicting objectives, external effects, complexinterdependencies, uncertainty and other features that make it nearly impossible to come to unambiguousoptimal decisions. Self-organization in socio-economic and ecological systems - the process of structuring asystem by the elements of the system themselves without hierarchical or external control - is often the reasonfor ambiguity and uncertainty. Adaptive management is an approach to deal with these challenges. Thisnatural resource management method is permanently monitoring both socio-economic and ecological systemsin order to be able to …