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Snapshot Images Of Country Risk Ratings: An International Comparison, Suhejla Hoti
Snapshot Images Of Country Risk Ratings: An International Comparison, Suhejla Hoti
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. Various risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of political, economic and financial risk into associated composite risk ratings. This paper compares international country risk ratings for 1998-99 compiled by the International Country Risk Guide, which is the only rating agency providing monthly data for a large number of countries. The snapshot graphical images provide a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings, and highlight …
The Socioeconomic Importance Of Eco-Resort Management Practices, Christine Lim
The Socioeconomic Importance Of Eco-Resort Management Practices, Christine Lim
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In recent years, ecotourism has become an increasingly important alternative form of sustainable tourism. Couran Cove Island Resort, which is located on South Stradbroke Island off the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia, is an eco-resort on one of the world's few naturally occurring sand islands. As an ecotourism-based resort, Couran Cove is active in implementing a range of initiatives for sustainable management of its environment, which is particularly important as it is home to a wide variety of plant communities. Consequently, the resort has a niche market of ecotourists. This paper examines how Couran Cove Island Resort applies the principles …
Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton
Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In January 2000, there was a record maximum rainfall throughout much of the watershed of the Swan River estuary, leading to the first reported Microcystis aeruginosa bloom in the estuary. Peak cell counts reached over 100,000 cells mL-1. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model, ELCOM-CAEDYM, is applied to the period of development and subsequent decline of the bloom. The model, previously calibrated for a more typical year (1995), accurately reproduced the unusual hydrodynamic circumstances and predicted the magnitude and timing of the Microcystis bloom. Salinity and temperature were the primary factors controlling the growth of Microcystis during the period of interest. …
Application Of 1d And 3d Hydrodynamic Models Coupled To An Ecological Model To Two Water Supply Reservoirs, Jose R. Romero, C. P. Dallimore, J. P. Antenucci, David P. Hamilton, J. Imberger, D. A. Horn, A. Deen
Application Of 1d And 3d Hydrodynamic Models Coupled To An Ecological Model To Two Water Supply Reservoirs, Jose R. Romero, C. P. Dallimore, J. P. Antenucci, David P. Hamilton, J. Imberger, D. A. Horn, A. Deen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A one-dimensional (1D-DYRESM) and three-dimensional (3D-ELCOM) hydrodynamic model were coupled to a common ecological model (CAEDYM) and applied to 2 different, but inter-connected reservoirs. A 1D water quality (WQ) simulation (DYRESM-CAEDYM) of large (V=2 km3, A=82 km2, L=50 km) and deep (zmax=90 m) Lake Burragorang during a drought (1992-1995) compared well with field data. DYRESM-CAEDYM simulations of much smaller (A=5 km2), shallower (zavg=9 m) and low residence time (ca. 1 month) Prospect Reservoir over 8 years (1983-1991) were validated against a comprehensive WQ record, with no modifications to the Lake Burragorang application other than to daily forcing and bathymetry files. …
Modelling Contrasted Management Behaviours Of Stakeholders Facing A Pine Encroachment Process: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach, Michel Etienne, Christophe Le Page
Modelling Contrasted Management Behaviours Of Stakeholders Facing A Pine Encroachment Process: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach, Michel Etienne, Christophe Le Page
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In Southern France, the Causse Méjan is a natural ecosystem of high biological diversity. Sheep farmers, foresters, and a National Park are interacting in this land subject to pine encroachment by Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra at different temporal and spatial scales. The stakeholders are concerned by this global biological process although it affects their management goals (sheep production, timber production, nature conservation) in very different ways. An agent-based model has been built with the Cormas platform. Vegetation changes in terms of structure, composition and productivity were simulated by a cellular automata that was initialised as a spatial grid of …
Modelling The Asymmetric Volatility Of Electronics Patents In The Usa, Felix Chan, Dora Marinova, Michael Mcaleer
Modelling The Asymmetric Volatility Of Electronics Patents In The Usa, Felix Chan, Dora Marinova, Michael Mcaleer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper analyses the asymmetric volatility in Japanese electronics and electrical equipment (hereafter,electronics) patents in the USA from 1975 to 1997. The number of patents has been increasing steadily over time andthe electronics industry has a 30% share of total Japanese patents in the USA. Thus, such patents reflect a strategicdevelopment by Japanese companies for the US market. The time-varying nature of the volatility of the ratio of thenumber of electronics patents registered in the USA from Japan to the total number of electronics patents registered inthe USA is examined for a variety of asymmetric models using data for the …
Modeling The Effects Of Greenbelts At The Urban-Rural Fringe, Daniel G. Brown, S. E. Page, Rick L. Riolo, William Rand
Modeling The Effects Of Greenbelts At The Urban-Rural Fringe, Daniel G. Brown, S. E. Page, Rick L. Riolo, William Rand
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present and evaluate an agent based model (ABM) of land use change at the rural-urban fringe, comparing its performance to a mathematical model of the same process. Our simplified model was developed in Swarm using agents with heterogeneous preferences and a landscape with heterogeneous properties. The context of this work is a larger project that includes surveys of the preferences of residents and data on historical patterns of development. Our broader goal is to use the model to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative policies and designs. We begin by evaluating the influence of a greenbelt, which is located …
A Simulation System For Waste Management – From System Dynamics Modelling To Decision Support, Patrick A. Wäger, Lorenz M. Hilty
A Simulation System For Waste Management – From System Dynamics Modelling To Decision Support, Patrick A. Wäger, Lorenz M. Hilty
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
With ongoing differentiation of society and an increasing demand to consider sustainability principles, instruments to support the assessment, design and control of complex socio-technical systems will gain importance. In this context, computer-based numerical models may play an essential role. We present a system dynamics based simulation system for plastics waste management and discuss the practical experiences made with this system. The simulation system – called EcoSolver IP-SSK - combines the advantages of a system dynamics approach with expertise from the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). EcoSolver IP-SSK has been developed in cooperation with key players of the waste management …
Simple Spatially Distributed Model Of The Global Carbon Cycle And Its Dynamic Properties, Yuri Svirezhev
Simple Spatially Distributed Model Of The Global Carbon Cycle And Its Dynamic Properties, Yuri Svirezhev
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A specially simplified spatially distributed model of the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC) is presentedthat is allowed to get a general solution and to study its basic dynamic properties (like spectral portrait,composition and decomposition of solutions, etc.). Assuming that the productivity depends linearly onconcentration of carbon in the atmosphere, the problem is reduced to a standard linear one. For calibrationthe Bazilevich data containing information on plant productivity, living biomass and soil organic matter ofdifferent biomes is used. Calculating the matrix eigenvalues of the basic linear problem we get its spectralportrait. The characteristic times change sufficiently smoothly from several years to several …
The Role Playing Games In An Abm Participatory Modeling Process: Outcomes From Five Different Experiments Carried Out In The Last Five Years, Patrick D’Aquino, Olivier Barreteau, Michel Etienne, Stanislas Boissau, Sigrid Aubert
The Role Playing Games In An Abm Participatory Modeling Process: Outcomes From Five Different Experiments Carried Out In The Last Five Years, Patrick D’Aquino, Olivier Barreteau, Michel Etienne, Stanislas Boissau, Sigrid Aubert
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Since 1996, we have used Role Playing Games (RPG) with our Multi-Agent System (MAS) platform, CORMAS (Bousquet et al. 1998), in different experiments about local land use management, water management, negotiations between foresters and breeders, and preservation of wild genetic resources by local peasants. Each experiment tested a different sort of coupling between RPG and CORMAS, from a RPG simply explaining the MAS model to a RPG strongly evolving in the different steps of the modeling itself. Each experiment tested also different objectives for this linking, from the improvement of the modeler's knowledge about the issue to the support of …
A New Approach In Parameterisation Of Momentum Transport Inside And Above Forest Canopy Under Neutral Conditions, B. Lalic, Dragutin T. Mihailović
A New Approach In Parameterisation Of Momentum Transport Inside And Above Forest Canopy Under Neutral Conditions, B. Lalic, Dragutin T. Mihailović
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The forest as an underlying surface is often met in atmospheric models of different scales. Experimental evidence indicates that there is a significant departure of the wind profile within the forest and in the so-called transition layer above it. In the forest environment, the observed values are rather different than the values of the wind speed profile obtained by: a) the logarithmic relationship in the transition layer and b) K theory within the forest. This situation can seriously disturb the real physical picture concerning the transfer of momentum, heat and water vapour from the surface into the atmosphere. In order …
Combining Object-Oriented Programming And Relational Databases For Multi-Scale Spatially- Integrated Agent-Based Models, J.G Polhill|A, Nick Gotts, Alistair N. R. Law
Combining Object-Oriented Programming And Relational Databases For Multi-Scale Spatially- Integrated Agent-Based Models, J.G Polhill|A, Nick Gotts, Alistair N. R. Law
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Object-oriented (OO) programming has limitations when used to implement abstract multi-scale, spatially-integrated, agent-based models, that could potentially be addressed using relational databases (RDB). Although this would involve rethinking the approach to designing such models, the combined OORDB approach has a number of appealing advantages for multi-scale simulations, such as allowing the user rather than the programmer to specify the scale at which various land-use processes take place. It also provides a basis for a more realistic representation of the relationship between agents and their environment
Indirect Effects In Ecosystems: A Review Of Recent Modelling Studies And A Methodological Framework For Comparative Theoretical Analysis, V. Krivtsov
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Indirect interrelations between ecosystem processes are often realised after a considerable time lag,and, therefore, are easily overlooked. The understanding of these relationships, however, is indispensable forsustainable development and ecomanagement. Investigation of mechanisms underpinning complex indirectdelayed relationships is greatly aided by advanced mathematical techniques, including correlation, multipleregression and factor analysis, simulation modelling, etc. This paper provides a brief review of the recentrelevant studies. These techniques may be especially useful if used in concert on a range of ecosystems, thusintegrating the information obtained in a comparative theoretical ecosystem analysis (CTEA). Amethodological framework for CTEA is given and possible implications discussed.
Use Of Catchment Attributes To Identify The Scale And Values Of Distributed Parameters In Surface And Sub-Surface Conceptual Hydrology Models, P. W. Carlile, A. J. Jakeman, B. F. W. Croke, B. G. Lees
Use Of Catchment Attributes To Identify The Scale And Values Of Distributed Parameters In Surface And Sub-Surface Conceptual Hydrology Models, P. W. Carlile, A. J. Jakeman, B. F. W. Croke, B. G. Lees
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Improved prediction for problems in catchment hydrology requires an ability to spatially disaggregate and connect surface and sub-surface components. This paper considers two hydrological models for use in such disaggregation and coupling: a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) and a physics based conceptual groundwater discharge model. Smaller gauged catchments in the vicinity can be used to regionalise and parameterise the coupled model using catchment attributes prior to running the model in a larger catchment with fewer gauges. Regionalisation in gauged catchments at appropriate scales would capture the uncertainty of the relationships between catchment attributes and model parameter values, including the …
Multi-Criteria Decision Support System And Data Warehouse For Designing And Monitoring Sustainable Industrial Strategies - An Italian Case Study, C. Di Mauro, J. P. Nordvik, A. C. Lucia
Multi-Criteria Decision Support System And Data Warehouse For Designing And Monitoring Sustainable Industrial Strategies - An Italian Case Study, C. Di Mauro, J. P. Nordvik, A. C. Lucia
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Decision-making processes for managing and defining policies related to social and environmental impacts from industry are becoming more and more complex. Raising public concerns on environmental issues requires public authorities to collect more accurate information related to impacts of industry. Overlaps between environmental, social and political interests, and rapid speed of change contribute even further to the complexity. Unfortunately, this multifaceted information is spread throughout multiple repositories. Thus, there is a need to integrate the available information within a structured network and to design a decision support system suitable for helping decision makers to define sustainable policies. This paper reports …
Emissions Trading Experiments: Investment Uncertainty And Liability, Takao Kusakawa, Tatsuyoshi Saijo
Emissions Trading Experiments: Investment Uncertainty And Liability, Takao Kusakawa, Tatsuyoshi Saijo
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We conducted three experiments on emissions trading. In experiment 1, we found very high efficiency under no investment uncertainty. In experiment 2, we introduced irreversibility of investment and investment time lag. Under these conditions, we found two cases: the success case and the failure case. Then we introduced three liability rules: seller's liability, Kyoto-first liability, and country-first liability. We found a new case called the theoretical price increase case under country-first, and the intentional bankruptcy case under Kyoto-first.
The Jdevs Modelling And Simulation Environment, J. B. Filippi, M. Delhom, F. Bernardi
The Jdevs Modelling And Simulation Environment, J. B. Filippi, M. Delhom, F. Bernardi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper describes the JDEVS modelling and simulation environment. JDEVS has been developedfor over a year to serve as an experimental framework for natural systems modelling techniques. It enablesdiscrete-event, general purpose, object-oriented, component based, GIS connected, collaborative, visual simulationmodel development and execution. The sample models implementations shows that this experimentalenvironment might be used to solve any complex problems solvable by discrete-event simulation and is especiallysuited for natural system modelling and simulation. Already, hierarchical block (static) and cellularmodels can be modelled and simulated within the environment. We are now extending those capabilities withthe development of a multi-layered modelling paradigm for spatially …
Selopt: Selection Of Options Based On The Balance And Ranking Method, G. Strassert
Selopt: Selection Of Options Based On The Balance And Ranking Method, G. Strassert
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
A new multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, called the Balancing and RankingMethod, is presented. The method overcomes some of the deficiencies of other MCDM methods, such assubjective evaluation of criteria weights, scoring of options, statistical estimation of weights andspecification of the utility function for criteria. The new method uses a three-step procedure to derive anoverall complete final order of options. First, an outranking matrix is derived, which indicates the frequencywith which one option is superior to all other options based on each criterion. Second, the outranking matrixis triangularized to obtain an implicit pre-ordering or provisional order of options. Third, the …
Georef: A Software For Improving The Use Of Remote Sensing Images In Environmental Applications, D. Carrion, M. Gianinetto, M. Scaioni
Georef: A Software For Improving The Use Of Remote Sensing Images In Environmental Applications, D. Carrion, M. Gianinetto, M. Scaioni
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Analysis of temporal sequences of satellite images is of great importance in the monitoring ofenvironmental phenomena, where both multi-temporal and multi-spectral images are widely used. The firstproblem to deal with such a kind of imagery is their geo-referencing, i.e. computing a transformation to ageodetic or cartographic datum. This task is usually performed by manually measuring control points, whoseground coordinates are read on existing maps or measured by GPS. In this paper we propose a software(GEOREF) to increase the automation of this procedure, which is very heavy for the operators in the RemoteSensing field. Considering a multi-temporal sequence of satellite images, …
Multi-Model Integration In Decision Support System: A Technical User Interface Approach For Watershed And Lake Management Scenarios, David Lam, Luis F. León, Stuart Hamilton, Norm Crookshank, Derek Bonin, David Swayne
Multi-Model Integration In Decision Support System: A Technical User Interface Approach For Watershed And Lake Management Scenarios, David Lam, Luis F. León, Stuart Hamilton, Norm Crookshank, Derek Bonin, David Swayne
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Computer simulations using mathematical models provide useful tools to investigate different scenarios based on watershed management strategies and environmental conditions. To study the impact of these strategies and conditions, different models must be linked or coupled following hydrological pathways in air, soil and water. To connect one model to another successfully, we need to resolve a number of computational issues such as the compatibility of software tools and the consistency of the temporal and spatial scales and model assumptions used. To keep track of these issues and to provide efficient algorithms to resolve them, we propose to use a technical …
Modeling And Analysis Of Biofilms Formation And Evolution In Wastewater Treatment Processes Using Multi-Agent Systems, Laurent Lardon, Jean-Philippe Steyer, Nicolas Bernet, Christophe Le Page
Modeling And Analysis Of Biofilms Formation And Evolution In Wastewater Treatment Processes Using Multi-Agent Systems, Laurent Lardon, Jean-Philippe Steyer, Nicolas Bernet, Christophe Le Page
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Biofilms are complex but omnipresent and industrially important structures. Many studies were devoted to build mathematical models for biofilm analysis but most of them were based on classical continuous approaches. On the other side, only very few studies were directly based on the functional mechanisms to obtain virtual systems which mimic the descriptive observations and allow to predict the state of a biofilm and its possible evolution. This paper will present a non-classical approach based on multi-agent systems for the analysis of biofilm formation. This model shows the spatial repartition of biomass within the biofilm and the impact of the …
A Systematic Approach To Assess Highland Resource Management Options In Northern Thailand, K. Trisophon, V. Punyawadee
A Systematic Approach To Assess Highland Resource Management Options In Northern Thailand, K. Trisophon, V. Punyawadee
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Problems that have emerged from the ongoing highland development schemes in northernThailand indicate the need for better understanding of resource management issues in the region. Particularattention has been paid to land and water management. An integrated modelling system has been developedto address this issue based on a multidisciplinary approach. The components of the system include a cropsimulation model, a hydrological model and a set of linear programming models. The modelling systemenables users to simulate farmers’ decision making process concerning farmland and water resourcemanagement. Conditions for farmers’ decisions are adjusted seasonally and annually, by an embeddedfeedback mechanism, according to the simulated …
A Dss For Water Resources Management Under Uncertainty, Stefano Pallottino, Giovanni M. Sechi, Paola Zuddas
A Dss For Water Resources Management Under Uncertainty, Stefano Pallottino, Giovanni M. Sechi, Paola Zuddas
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning andmanagement under climatic and hydrological uncertainty. A DSS with a a graphical interface allows the user afriendly data-input phase and results analysis.Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios. Uncertainty ismodeled by a scenario-tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations ofinflows in a wide time-horizon. The aim is to identify trends and essential features on which to base a robustdecision policy.The DSS prevent obsolescence of optimizer codes exploiting the standard input format MPS. Obtained resultsshow that …
Spasim: A Software To Simulate Cellular Automata Models, Niandry Moreno, Magdiel Ablan, Giorgio Tonella
Spasim: A Software To Simulate Cellular Automata Models, Niandry Moreno, Magdiel Ablan, Giorgio Tonella
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Simulation models are a key tool to study the dynamics of ecological systems where space plays a fundamental role. These kinds of models in which the dynamic of the system is space-dependent are called spatial simulation models. The most frequently used approach to simulate spatial models consists of a simulation program (typically developed in a general purposed language) that periodically exports results to a Geographic Information System (GIS) to visualize or analyze the spatial component. This type of approach requires of a user programming skills and to be knowledgeable about GIS, limiting the use of the model and increasing the …
Choice Processes In Modelling For Policy Support, Penny Kloprogge, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs
Choice Processes In Modelling For Policy Support, Penny Kloprogge, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
When building a (interdisciplinary) model for policy support, modellers are faced with many choices that influence the model, and may influence the model outcomes. When a personal judgment is involved in a choice process, this can make the model biased. A model and its outcomes may be unacceptable to the users and stakeholders and may lead to conflict if the model does not adequately take their knowledge and perspectives into account. This study explored how choice processes in the modelling practice take place and what biases may occur that may influence the knowledge and perspectives incorporated in a model. Based …
A Model For The Trophic Food Web Of The Gulf Of Trieste, G. Cossarini, Cosimo Solidoro, A. Crise
A Model For The Trophic Food Web Of The Gulf Of Trieste, G. Cossarini, Cosimo Solidoro, A. Crise
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Gulf of Trieste is located in the northernmost part of the Adriatic Sea. It exhibits high variable hydrodynamical and trophic conditions, due to the interactions among the wind regime, characterised by impulsive strong wind events (Bora), the fresh water –nutrient rich- run off, especially from Isonzo river, the interaction with the general circulation of North Adriatic Sea, the seasonal heating and cooling of water and alternation of mixing and stratification of water column. Gulf is also characterised by occurrence of anomaly events as mucilagine. Despite the high inter-annual biological variability, it is possible to recognise the seasonal succession of …
An International Comparison Of Foreign Patents Registered In The Usa, Michael Mcaleer, Felix Chan, Dora Marinova
An International Comparison Of Foreign Patents Registered In The Usa, Michael Mcaleer, Felix Chan, Dora Marinova
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper analyses trends and volatilities in registered patents for the top 12 foreign patenting countries inthe USA. In terms of total US patents by foreign countries, Japan is ranked first, followed distantly by Germany andthen France. Patent registrations from each of the 12 countries have increased steadily over time, but at different rates.Using monthly time series data for 1975-1998, the time-varying volatility of the patents ratio, namely US patentsregistered by each of the top 12 foreign countries relative to total US patents, is examined in detail. Internationalrankings based on both the number of patents and patent intensity (or patents …
A Modelling Framework Incorporating A Map Algebra Programming Language, D. Pullar
A Modelling Framework Incorporating A Map Algebra Programming Language, D. Pullar
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The paper presents a modelling framework to integrate dynamic analysis and spatial analysis, andto apply this to a hydrological application. The dynamic analysis runs a simulation of a set of processmodules. Modules for spatial analysis functionality are implemented in software libraries, or components.Currently we support components for a map algebra language called MapScript, and for spreadsheetcalculations using Excel. An important issue in environmental models and in any modelling framework isdealing with different scale processes. When processes occur over different time or spatial scales but are stillintegrally related, this becomes a problem for applying efficient modelling solutions. The paper reviews twocommon …
Environment Explorer: Spatial Support System For The Integrated Assessment Of Socio-Economic And Environmental Policies In The Netherlands, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Roger White
Environment Explorer: Spatial Support System For The Integrated Assessment Of Socio-Economic And Environmental Policies In The Netherlands, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Roger White
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Environment Explorer is a system developed to support spatial scientists, planners and decision makers at the regional and national level in the Netherlands to analyse a wide range of social, economic and environmental policies and their associated spatial patterns. The core of this system consists of linked dynamic spatial models operating at both the micro- and the macro-geographical scales. At the macro scale, the modeling framework integrates several component sub-models, representing the natural, social, and economic sub-systems. At the micro level, cellular automata based models determine the faith of individual parcels of land based on institutional, physical and environmental factors …
Generic Integration In Environmental Information And Decision Support Systems, Ralf Denzer
Generic Integration In Environmental Information And Decision Support Systems, Ralf Denzer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Environmental Information Systems (EIS) and Environmental Decision Support Systems (EDSS) are major building blocks in environmental management and science today. They are used at all levels of public bodies (community, state, national and international level), in science, in management and as information platforms towards the public. EIS and EDSS are usually said to have certain characteristics, which distinguish them from standard information systems, e.g. information complexity in time and space or uncompleteness or fuzzyness of data items. By the very nature of the complex tasks involved, different methodologies can be an option while developing a new system, for instance modelling, …