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Extreme Value Theory: Applications To Estimation Of Stochastic Traffic Capacity And Statistical Downscaling Of Precipitation Extremes, Eric Matthew Laflamme

Doctoral Dissertations

This work explores two applications of extreme value analysis. First, we apply EV techniques to traffic stream data to develop an accurate distribution of capacity. Data were collected by the NHDOT along Interstate I93, and two adjacent locations in Salem, NH were examined. Daily flow maxima were used to estimate capacity, and data not associated with daily breakdown were deemed censored values. Under this definition, capacity values are approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for block maxima. To address small sample sizes and the presence of censoring, a Bayesian framework using semi-informative priors was implemented. A simple cross …