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Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

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2021

Higher-order beliefs

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Learning Efficiency Of Multi-Agent Information Structures, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii Aug 2021

Learning Efficiency Of Multi-Agent Information Structures, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study settings in which, prior to playing an incomplete information game, players observe many draws of private signals about the state from some information structure. Signals are i.i.d. across draws, but may display arbitrary correlation across players. For each information structure, we define a simple learning efficiency index, which only considers the statistical distance between the worst-informed player’s marginal signal distributions in different states. We show, first, that this index characterizes the speed of common learning (Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson, 2008): In particular, the speed at which players achieve approximate common knowledge of the state coincides with the …


Learning Efficiency Of Multi-Agent Information Structures, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii Aug 2021

Learning Efficiency Of Multi-Agent Information Structures, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study which multi-agent information structures are more effective at eliminating both first-order and higher-order uncertainty, and hence at facilitating efficient play in incomplete-information coordination games. We consider a learning setting à la Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson (2008) where players have access to many private signal draws from an information structure. First, we characterize the rate at which players achieve approximate common knowledge of the state, based on a simple learning efficiency index. Notably, this coincides with the rate at which players’ first-order uncertainty vanishes, as higher-order uncertainty becomes negligible relative to first-order uncertainty after enough signal draws. Based …