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(Wp 2014-01) Is Bitcoin The 'Paris Hilton' Of The Currency World? Or Are The Early Investors Onto Something That Will Make Them Rich? [Updated Version], Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2014-01) Is Bitcoin The 'Paris Hilton' Of The Currency World? Or Are The Early Investors Onto Something That Will Make Them Rich? [Updated Version], Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The bitcoin phenomenon, and the technological innovation that made it possible, is interesting - but for investors large and small, the more pertinent question is whether they should buy the digital currency or avoid it. We analyze a bitcoin investment from the standpoint of an investor with a diversified portfolio using both in-sample and out-of-sample settings. Within the in-sample setting, bitcoin does not yield added value to investors with utility function consistent with the mean-variance setting. On the other hand, they do offer diversification benefits to investors with negative exponential and power utility functions. However, these benefits are not preserved …
Purchasing Power Parity In The Major Ems Countries: The Role Of Price And Exchange Rate Adjustment, Abdur Chowdhury, Fabio Sdogati
Purchasing Power Parity In The Major Ems Countries: The Role Of Price And Exchange Rate Adjustment, Abdur Chowdhury, Fabio Sdogati
Abdur R. Chowdhury
In this paper we address the issue of whether the European Monetary System has contributed to real exchange rate stability between France, Germany, and Italy. We first ask whether bilateral PPP holds between any pair of these countries and between each of them and the United States. We find that PPP never holds before the EMS was created, and that it does among EMS countries, but not relative to the U.S. since. Next we assess the role of relative prices and exchange rates in the adjustment process toward PPP. We find that PPP between France and Germany is solely due …
Review Of International Business: Competing In The Global Marketplace, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of International Business: Competing In The Global Marketplace, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(2) Sample Syllabus: Econ 4080, Abdur Chowdhury
(2) Sample Syllabus: Econ 4080, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Review Of Prices, Wages And Business Cycles By Burton H. Klein, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of Prices, Wages And Business Cycles By Burton H. Klein, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury
The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992-3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994-5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. Obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such …
(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. This in contrast to the European experience from the Renaissance to the 20th century, where it is believed that war and state-building were inseparable, enhancing the fiscal capacity of the state; in turn enlarging the scope and magnitude of government expenditure. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with the possibility of violent contestation over a rent or prize, typically in the form of natural resource revenues. …
Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury
Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the G-7 countries in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The error-correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the G-7 countries. Assuming market participants are risk averse, these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities, change prices, or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate …
A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury
A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Proposals are evaluated, from both an economic and an ethical viewpoint, for development funding through a global lottery, along with a complement to this: a global premium bond (a loan instrument in which the interest takes the form of a lottery prize, the capital being repayable on request, so that it has the characteristics of a savings product, which makes it potentially attractive to ethical investors). The chapter starts by looking at how a global lottery might work, evaluating the issue by discussing lottery operators and their regulation, the market for lotteries, competition between the global lottery and national lotteries, …
(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We study the nexus between natural resources and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and find that SSA is indeed special: resources dependence retards growth in SSA, but not elsewhere. The natural resources curse is thus specific to SSA. We then show that this specificity does not depend on the type of primary commodities on which SSA specializes. Instead, the SSA specificity appears to arise from the interaction between institutions and natural resources.
Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury
Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
To examine the impact of floating rate loans and interest rate volatility on aggregate cash flow, quarterly data covering the period 1974 to 1990 for 14 two-digit Standard Industrial Classification manufacturing industries were analyzed. The results indicate that changes in the short-term interest rate and-or interest rate volatility have a significantly negative impact on the cash flow of a total of 11 of the 14 firms considered. Although the inverse relationship between corporate cash flow and interest rate is worth mentioning, the heterogeneity of this relationship across industries, however, is more interesting. The magnitude of the decline in cash flow …
Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury
Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper develops a political-economic interaction model for India for the 1960-91 sample period. India presents an ideal case for testing the political business cycle theory in the context of a parliamentary democracy with endogenous election timing. Using a mixed qualitative and continuous variable simultaneous equation estimation procedure, the paper considers the two-way interaction that results from the control by the cabinet over election timing. Several conclusions can be derived from this study. First, the results indicate the presence of business cycle-electoral interaction in India. Second, there is strong support for the surfing hypothesis, implying that the Indian cabinet tends …
The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury
The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The paper examines the trend in private savings in Morocco in the presence of financial sector development by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework. Specifically, the hypothesis that there is stable relationship between the level of private savings and its determinants including a measure of financial reform is investigated. The statistical results provide evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between private savings and most of its determinants. More importantly, the financial reform index, as measured by financial depth, is found to have a positive impact on the level of private savings. This indicates that the financial reform program …
(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country’s probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their …
The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This study uses the seemingly-unrelated regression method in panel data to test for the mean-reversion behavior in stock returns in eight Asian and Pacific Basin markets: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The empirical evidence suggests that an investor cannot use the information contained in stock performances in precious periods to consistently earn abnormal profits. A fundamental implication of the efficient market theory is that successive security returns are serially independent. Hence the empirical evidence is consistent with the spirit of the efficiency market theory. This would suggest a hands-off approach for the policy-makers with regard …
Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker
Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper investigates the substitutability between money and near-money assets during the period 1976 to 1996 in Switzerland. Financial developments have made a variety of instruments available to store wealth and conduct economic transactions. These developments have generated a "near money" component in households' and businesses' portfolio balances. It is important to evaluate the effect of "near-money" on money demand and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Towards this goal, five monetary assets: currency and demand deposits at commercial banks, demand deposits with the postal system, deposits on transaction accounts with banks, savings deposits and time deposits are considered. We evaluate …
Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury
Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Four Scenarios Of Development And The Role Of Economic Policy, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Four Scenarios Of Development And The Role Of Economic Policy, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country's probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their …
Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury
A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury
Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Only a successful implementation of an overall reform program will enable Russian banks to provide financial intermediation and assist in the country's development from a nascent market economy to a mature financial system. The chances for reform are better now than at any time during the last decade. Favorable political and economic conditions and a change in attitude among bank management have created an unusual window of opportunity. The paper analyzes the past performance of the Russian banking industry, evaluates the reform agenda of the monetary authority, and argues for an overall reform program in order to seize the available …
(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
During the 2007-9 Great Recession, the risk premium associated with U.S. stocks sharply increased and has since remained significantly higher compared to its range during the last 40 years. The increase in the equity risk premium has led many analysts to believe that risk aversion among stock investors has moved to a permanently higher range in recent years. Our empirical findings show that the recent increase in the equity risk premium primarily reflects a temporary collapse in consumer confidence. As long as the consumer confidence in the sustainability of economic recovery remains low, today's elevated risk premium would persist. Once …
Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We estimate the effect of financial openness on economic integration for two clusters of countries: the formerly planned economies of Eastern Europe and central Asia (emerging market economies) and some western advanced economies. We focus on two dimensions of economic integration: convergence of per-capita incomes across countries and trade integration. We employ both single equation estimation and system estimation to account for endogenous links between trade integration and income convergence. Results show that in the cluster of emerging market economies, financial openness is a powerful instrument of economic integration. In the group of advanced economies, financial openness effectively facilitates income …
Review Of Advances In Monetary Economics By David Currie, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of Advances In Monetary Economics By David Currie, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Stock Market Interdependencies: Evidence From The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
Stock Market Interdependencies: Evidence From The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
National asset markets have become more integrated in recent years. This paper investigates the interrelationship, if any, among the stock markets in four newly industrialized economies (NIEs) in Asia. The results indicate that a significant link exists between the stock markets of Hong Kong and Singapore and those of Japan and the United States. On the other hand, the markets with severe restrictions on cross-country investing, that is, Korea and Taiwan, are not responsive to innovations in foreign markets. Finally, the United States stock market influences, but is not influenced by, the four Asian markets.
Money In The Yugoslav Economy, Abdur Chowdhury, Stephen Grubaugh, Andrew Stollar
Money In The Yugoslav Economy, Abdur Chowdhury, Stephen Grubaugh, Andrew Stollar
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Review Of Perestroika And The Economy: New Thinking On Soviet Economics By Anthony Jones And William Moskoff, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of Perestroika And The Economy: New Thinking On Soviet Economics By Anthony Jones And William Moskoff, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2011-05) 'Til Recession Do Us Part: Booms, Busts, And Divorce In The United States, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-05) 'Til Recession Do Us Part: Booms, Busts, And Divorce In The United States, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
A general hypothesis regarding the impact of permanent income levels and business cycle fluctuations on divorce rate at the state level in the United States is analyzed in the paper. Using data for 45 states over the 1978-2009 sample period, the paper shows that the higher the level of transitory income, the higher is the incidence of divorce. In other words, divorce is pro-cyclical. Why do divorce decrease during recession and increase during expansion? When an economy is in crisis and people’s incomes are low, the cost of divorce will prevent a couple from divorcing irrespective of the quality of …
Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence From Four Developed Economies, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler
Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence From Four Developed Economies, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This study examines the impact of shocks to exchange rate uncertainty (volatility) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis is conducted using vector autoregressive models that contain the price level, real output, the real exchange rate, the volatility of the real exchange rate, the interest rate, and FDI. The results from variance decompositions yield public policy implications. In Canada, Japan, and the United States, innovations to exchange rate uncertainty explain significant portions of the forecast error variance in FDI at longer time horizons. The impulse response functions indicate that, to …