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Structural Breaks In Trade And Income Per Capita In Asean-5 Countries: An Application Of Innovational Outlier Models, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, M. Pahlavani
Structural Breaks In Trade And Income Per Capita In Asean-5 Countries: An Application Of Innovational Outlier Models, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, M. Pahlavani
Faculty of Business - Economics Working Papers
The founder members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) – Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore – increasingly adopted outward-oriented policies in trade and investment by enforcing reforms in the mid- 1980s. This paper investigates the existence of endogenously determined structural breaks of the trade and income per capita by using historical time series data during the period from 1970 to 2003 for the ASEAN-5 by applying an Innovational Outliner (IO) model in the presence of a potential structural break. We find that significant structural breaks occurred for trade per capita in the mid-1980s, which coincides with …
Sources Of Economic Growth In South Korea: An Application Of The Ardl Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks – 1980-2005, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani
Sources Of Economic Growth In South Korea: An Application Of The Ardl Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks – 1980-2005, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani
Faculty of Business - Economics Working Papers
The primary objective of this paper is to examine the major determinants of GDP growth in South Korea emphasizing the importance of investment, trade and human capital, using quarterly time series data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2005Q3. The time series properties of the data are, first, analyzed using the Zivot-Andrews (1992) model. The empirical results derived indicate that there is insufficient evidence against the null hypothesis of unit roots for all of the variables under investigation. Second, the Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration technique, allowing for the presence of potential structural breaks in the data, is applied, and is found to …
Revisiting Budget And Trade Deficits In Lebanon: A Critique, H. Marashdeh, A. S. Saleh
Revisiting Budget And Trade Deficits In Lebanon: A Critique, H. Marashdeh, A. S. Saleh
Faculty of Business - Economics Working Papers
This study re-examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in Lebanon. In contrast to earlier studies, we start by testing for a unit root in the presence of structural change using the Innovational Outlier (IO) model. This study also utilizes the newly proposed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine such a relationship. The results show that the endogenously determined times of the breaks coincide with observed real events occurring during the years of Civil War in Lebanon and especially after the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982. This study finds, as well, that the trade …
Testing For Structural Breaks In The Korean Economy 1980-2005: An Application Of The Innovational Outlier And The Additive Outlier Models, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani
Testing For Structural Breaks In The Korean Economy 1980-2005: An Application Of The Innovational Outlier And The Additive Outlier Models, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani
Faculty of Business - Economics Working Papers
This paper employs quarterly time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for various macroeconomic variables in Korean economy. The Innovational Outlier (IO) as well as Additive Outlier models (Perron, 1997) are then used to test for non-stationarity of the Korean macroeconomic data. After accounting for the single most significant structural break, the results from the (AO) model clearly indicate that the null of at least one unit root cannot be rejected for all of the series under investigation. This finding is consistent with our finding based on the conventional unit root test. However, by applying the …
Identifying Structural Breaks In The Lebanese Economy 1970-2003: An Application Of The Zivot And Andrews Test, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani, A. S. Saleh
Identifying Structural Breaks In The Lebanese Economy 1970-2003: An Application Of The Zivot And Andrews Test, Charles Harvie, M. Pahlavani, A. S. Saleh
Faculty of Business - Economics Working Papers
During the 1960s and early 1970s the Lebanese economy was characterized by low inflation, high growth, sizeable balance of payments surpluses and small public sector deficits, which made it a highly attractive business centre. During this period the country was described as the Switzerland or Paris of the East. This macroeconomic stability did not last long, however, as the economy subsequently underwent fundamental structural changes during most years after the mid 1970s. The aim of this paper is to identify the timing of major structural breaks in the Lebanese economy by applying the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) (1992) procedure, using …