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How Have The World’S Poorest Fared Since The Early 1980s?, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen
How Have The World’S Poorest Fared Since The Early 1980s?, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen
Martin Ravallion
We present new estimates of the extent of the developing world’s progress against poverty. By the frugal $1 per day standard, we find that there were 1.1 billion poor in 2001 — almost 400 million fewer than 20 years earlier. Over the same period, the number of poor declined by over 400 million in China, though half of this decline was in the first few years of the 1980s. The number of poor outside China rose slightly over the period. A marked bunching up of people between $1 and $2 per day has also emerged, with an increase over time …
An Econometric Method Of Correcting For Unit Nonresponse Bias In Surveys, Martin Ravallion, Anton Korinek, Johan Mistiaen
An Econometric Method Of Correcting For Unit Nonresponse Bias In Surveys, Martin Ravallion, Anton Korinek, Johan Mistiaen
Martin Ravallion
Past approaches to correcting for unit nonresponse in sample surveys by re-weighting the data assume that the problem is ignorable within arbitrary subgroups of the population. Theory and evidence suggest that this assumption is unlikely to hold, and that household characteristics such as income systematically affect survey compliance. We show that this leaves a bias in the re-weighted data and we propose a method of correcting for this bias. The geographic structure of nonresponse rates allows us to identify a micro compliance function, which is then used to re-weight the unit-record data. An example is given for the US Current …
Are There Lasting Impacts Of Aid To Poor Areas? Evidence From Rural China, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen, Ren Mu
Are There Lasting Impacts Of Aid To Poor Areas? Evidence From Rural China, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen, Ren Mu
Martin Ravallion
The paper re-visits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China, 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and non-project areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program’s impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only small and statistically insignificant gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer-term — though in rough accord with the gain to …
China's (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen
China's (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen
Martin Ravallion
While the incidence of extreme poverty fell dramatically in China over 1980-2001, progress was uneven over time and across provinces. Rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor, though migration to urban areas helped. Rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth; agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of GDP. Taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor; local government spending helped them in absolute terms; external trade had little short-term impact. Provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against …
Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth In China And India, Martin Ravallion, Shubham Chaudhuri
Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth In China And India, Martin Ravallion, Shubham Chaudhuri
Martin Ravallion
The paper examines the ways in which recent economic growth has been uneven in China and India and what this has meant for inequality and poverty. Drawing on analyses based on existing household survey data and aggregate data from official sources, the authors show that growth has indeed been uneven—geographically, sectorally and at the household-level—and that this has meant uneven progress against poverty, less poverty reduction than might have been achieved had growth been more balanced, and an increase in income inequality. The paper then examines why growth was uneven and why this should be of concern. The discussion is …
Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs, Martin Ravallion
Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs, Martin Ravallion
Martin Ravallion
The chapter critically reviews the methods available for the ex-post counterfactual analysis of programs that are assigned exclusively to individuals, households or locations. The emphasis is on the specific problems encountered in applying these methods to anti-poverty programs in developing countries, drawing on examples from actual evaluations. Two main lessons emerge. Firstly, despite the claims of advocates, no single method dominates; rigorous, policy-relevant evaluations should be open-minded about methodology, adapting to the problem, setting and data constraints. Secondly, future efforts to draw useful lessons from evaluations call for more policy-relevant data and methods than the classic (“black box”) assessment of …
Land Reallocation In Vietnam’S Agrarian Transition, Martin Ravallion, Dominique Van De Walle
Land Reallocation In Vietnam’S Agrarian Transition, Martin Ravallion, Dominique Van De Walle
Martin Ravallion
Liberalizing key factor markets is a crucial step in the transition from a socialist control-economy to a market economy. However, the process can be stalled by imperfect information, high transaction costs and covert resistance from entrenched interests. The paper studies agricultural land reallocation in the wake of Vietnam’s efforts to establish a free market in land-use rights following de-collectivization. Inefficiencies in the initial administrative allocation are measured against an explicit counterfactual. Land allocation responded positively but slowly to the initial inefficiencies. There is no sign that the transition favored the land rich or that it was thwarted by local officials.