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Incorporating Physiology Into Species Distribution Models Moderates The Projected Impact Of Warming On Mediterranean Marine Species, Inbal Gamliel, Yehezkel Buba, Tamar Guy-Haim, Tal Garval, Demian A. Willette, Gil Rilov, Jonathan Belmaker

Biology Faculty Works

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We …