Digital Commons Network^™

Drought As An Emergent Driver Of Ecological Transformation In The Twenty-First Century, Wynne E. Moss, Shelley D. Crausbay, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay W. Wason, Clay Trauernicht, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Anna Sala, Caitlin M. Rottler, Gregory T. Pederson, Brian W. Miller, Dawn R. Magness, Jeremy S. Littell, Lee E. Frelich, Abby Frazier, Kimberly T. Davis, Jonathan D. Coop, Jennifer M. Cartwright, Robert K. Booth

Geography

Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought's impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly or through drought's interactions with factors …

We Need A Solid Scientific Basis For Nature-Based Climate Solutions In The United States, Kimberly A. Novick, Trevor F. Keenan, William R L Anderegg, Caroline P. Normile, Benjamin R K Runkle, Emily E. Oldfield, Gyami Shrestha, Margaret E K Evans, Dennis D. Baldocchi, James T. Randerson, Jonathan Sanderman, Margaret S. Torn, Anna T. Trugman, Christopher A. Williams

Geography

Opinion piece mapping the many challenges and variables around nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) in the United States, and the need to pinpoint large-scale strategies that will lead to significant, durable, and measurable net climate cooling. They must do so without simply displacing emissions to other locations.

Russia In A Changing Climate, Debra Javeline, Robert Orttung, Graeme Robertson, Richard Arnold, Andrew Barnes, Laura Henry, Edward Holland, Mariya Omelicheva, Peter Rutland, Edward Schatz, Caress Schenk, Andrei Semenov, Valerie Sperling, Lisa Mcintosh Sundstrom, Mikhail Troitskiy, Judith Twigg, Susanne Wengle

Political Science

Climate change will shape the future of Russia, and vice versa, regardless of who rules in the Kremlin. The world's largest country is warming faster than Earth as a whole, occupies more than half the Arctic Ocean coastline, and is waging a carbon-intensive war while increasingly isolated from the international community and its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Officially, the Russian government argues that, as a major exporter of hydrocarbons, Russia benefits from maintaining global reliance on fossil fuels and from climate change itself, because warming may increase the extent and quality of its arable land, open a new …

Reduced Fire Severity Offers Near-Term Buffer To Climate-Driven Declines In Conifer Resilience Across The Western United States, Kimberley T. Davis, Marcos D. Robles, Kerry B. Kemp, Philip E. Higuera, Teresa Chapman, Kerry L. Metlen, Jamie L. Peeler, Kyle C. Rodman, Travis Woolley, Robert N. Addington, Brian J. Buma, Alina C. Cansler, Michael J. Case, Brandon M. Collins, Jonathan D. Coop, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Nathan S. Gill, Collin Haffey, Lucas B. Harris, Brian J. Harvey, Ryan D. Haugo, Matthew D. Hurteau, Dominik Kulakowski, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Lisa A. Mccauley, Nicholas Povak, Kristen L. Shive, Edward Smith, Jens T. Stevens, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Alan H. Taylor, Alan J. Tepley, Derek J.N. Young, Robert A. Andrus, Mike A. Battaglia, Julia K. Berkey, Sebastian U. Busby, Amanda R. Carlson, Marin E. Chambers, Erich Kyle Dodson, Daniel Donato, William M. Downing, Paula J. Fornwalt, Joshua S. Halofsky, Ashley Hoffman, Andrés Holz, Jose M. Iniguez, Meg A. Krawchuk, Mark R. Krieder, Andrew J. Larson, Garrett W. Meigs, John Paul Roccaforte, Monica T. Rother, Hugh Safford, Michael Schaedel, Jason S. Sibold, Megan P. Singleton, Alexandra K. Urza, Kyra D. Clark-Wolf, Monica G. Turner

Geography

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits …

Ten New Insights In Climate Science 2023/2024, Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi

Geography

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical …

Ecological Calendars, Food Sovereignty, And Climate Adaptation In Standing Rock, Morgan L. Ruelle, Aubrey Joshua Skye, Evan Collins, Karim-Aly S. Kassam

Sustainability and Social Justice

Indigenous food sovereignty relies on ecological knowledge of plants and animals, including knowledge related to their development and behavior through the seasons. In the context of anthropogenic climate change, ecological calendars based on Indigenous knowledge may enable communities to anticipate seasonal phenomena. We conducted research with communities in the Standing Rock Nation (North and South Dakota, USA) to develop ecological calendars based on their ecological knowledge. We present ecological calendars developed in seven communities through a series of workshops and interviews. These calendars are rich with knowledge about temporal relations within each community's ecosystem, including the use of plants and …

Narrating Agricultural Resilience After Hurricane María: How Smallholder Farmers In Puerto Rico Leverage Self-Sufficiency And Collaborative Agency In A Climate-Vulnerable Food System, Abrania Marrero, Andrea Lόpez-Cepero, Ramón Borges-Méndez, Josiemer Mattei

Sustainability and Social Justice

Climate change is a threat to food system stability, with small islands particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events. In Puerto Rico, a diminished agricultural sector and resulting food import dependence have been implicated in reduced diet quality, rural impoverishment, and periodic food insecurity during natural disasters. In contrast, smallholder farmers in Puerto Rico serve as cultural emblems of self-sufficient food production, providing fresh foods to local communities in an informal economy and leveraging traditional knowledge systems to manage varying ecological and climatic constraints. The current mixed methods study sought to document this expertise and employed a questionnaire and narrative interviewing …

The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange: A Co-Production Approach To Deliver Climate Resources To User Groups, Ryan J. Longman, Abby G. Frazier, Christian P. Giardina, Elliott W. Parsons, Sierra Mcdaniel

Geography

Drought is a growing threat to hydrological, ecological, agricultural, and socio-cultural systems of the tropics, especially tropical islands of the Pacific where severe droughts can compromise food and water security. Overcoming barriers to knowledge sharing between land managers and researchers is a critical cross-sector strategy for engaging and mitigating or adapting to drought. Here we describe the establishment and functioning of the Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange (PDKE), which provides users with easier access to: (1) sector- and geography-specific climate information; (2) better and more comprehensive information; (3) improved technical assistance; and (4) a more collaborative information-transfer environment through participation in …

The Influence Of Burn Severity On Post-Fire Spectral Recovery Of Three Fires In The Southern Rocky Mountains, Jaclyn Guz, Florencia Sangermano, Dominik Kulakowski

Geography

Increased wildfire activity and altered post-fire climate in the Southern Rocky Mountains has the potential to influence forest resilience. The Southern Rocky Mountains are a leading edge of climate change and have experienced record-breaking fires in recent years. The change in post-fire regeneration and forest resilience could potentially include future ecological trajectories. In this paper, we examined patterns of post-fire spectral recovery using Landsat time series. Additionally, we utilized random forest models to analyze the impact of climate and burn severity on three fire events in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Fifteen years following the fires, none of the burned stands …

Applying Landscape Fragmentation Analysis To Icescape Environments: Potential Impacts For The Pacific Walrus (Odobenus Rosmarus Divergens), Anthony Himmelberger, K E. Frey, Florencia Sangermano

Geography

Sea-ice cover across the Arctic has declined rapidly over the past several decades owing to amplified climate warming. The Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) relies on sea-ice floes in the St. Lawrence Island (SLI) and Wainwright regions of the Bering and Chukchi seas surrounding Alaska as a platform for rest, feeding and reproduction. Lower concentrations of thick ice floes are generally associated with earlier seasonal fragmentation and shorter annual persistence of sea-ice cover, potentially affecting the life history of the Pacific walrus. In this study, 24 Landsat satellite images were classified into thick ice, thin ice or open water to …

Ecosystem Carbon Balance In The Hawaiian Islands Under Different Scenarios Of Future Climate And Land Use Change, Paul C. Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson, Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, Gregory P. Asner

Geography

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and …

An Analysis Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Food Security In The Albertine Rift Of East Africa, Malcolm Jacob

Sustainability and Social Justice

As one of the most densely populated regions on the continent of Africa, the Albertine Rift (consisting of parts of Rwanda, Uganda, and the eastern DRC) faces ongoing problems providing enough food for its people through crop production, livestock husbandry, and other forms of food production. Even more troubling for the future is that anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly exacerbate food insecurity. This paper addresses one central question: how will climate change impact food security in the Albertine Rift? Based on an analysis of available data, this paper finds that policymakers should listen closely to local farmers and …

Evaluation Of Existing Climate-Change Adaptation Plans For Municipalities In Mexico: Proposition Of A “Sustainable Mac-Water Framework” That Considers Vulnerability To Impacts On Water Resources, Tsanta Rakotoarisoa

Sustainability and Social Justice

This paper presents a sustainable adaptive capacity framework for water management for municipalities, named Sustainable MAC-Water framework, after assessing the strengths and weaknesses of adaptive capacity in Mexico and its municipalities. It provides municipalities with an instrument to help them create sustainable adaptive capacity plans (Sustainable MAC plans) to prevent adverse impacts on water resources and related sectors. It is based on a study of policy instruments crafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Government of Mexico, and literature on adaptive capacity, assessment, and planning. The Sustainable MAC-Water framework recommends the establishment of a Reactive Barriers …

Urban Permaculture For Climate-Resilient Farming In Worcester, Massachusetts, Priyanka Shrestha

Sustainability and Social Justice

Climate changes observed over the past several decades are associated with changes in the multiple components of hydrological systems, including changes in precipitation patterns, higher rates of evaporation and increasing soil erosion. In 2019, the city of Worcester declared a climate emergency, stating that climate change threatens the community’s environment. Permaculture can strengthen crucial relationships between nature and human beings, offering long-lasting solutions to protect our planet from risks associated with climate change. This paper focuses on the application of permaculture practices in urban agriculture, including techniques to address changes in hydrological systems. Use of perennial plants, creating swales, drip …

Female Pacific Walruses (Odobenus Rosmarus Divergens) Show Greater Partitioning Of Sea Ice Organic Carbon Than Males: Evidence From Ice Algae Trophic Markers, Chelsea W. Koch, Lee W. Cooper, Ryan J. Woodland, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier, Karen E. Frey, Raphaela Stimmelmayr, Cédric Magen, Thomas A. Brown

Geography

The expected reduction of ice algae with declining sea ice may prove to be detrimental to the Pacific Arctic ecosystem. Benthic organisms that rely on sea ice organic carbon (iPOC) sustain benthic predators such as the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The ability to track the trophic transfer of iPOC is critical to understanding its value in the food web, but prior methods have lacked the required source specificity. We analyzed the H-Print index, based on biomarkers of ice algae versus phytoplankton contributions to organic carbon in marine predators, in Pacific walrus livers collected in 2012, 2014 and 2016 from …

Covid-19 And The Case For Global Development, Johan A. Oldekop, Rory Horner, David Hulme, Roshan Adhikari, Bina Agarwal, Matthew Alford, Oliver Bakewell, Nicola Banks, Stephanie Barrientos, Tanja Bastia, Anthony J. Bebbington, Upasak Das, Ralitza Dimova, Richard Duncombe, Charis Enns, David Fielding, Christopher Foster, Timothy Foster, Tomas Frederiksen, Ping Gao, Tom Gillespie, Richard Heeks, Sam Hickey, Martin Hess, Nicholas Jepson, Ambarish Karamchedu, Uma Kothari, Aarti Krishnan, Tom Lavers, Aminu Mamman, Diana Mitlin, Negar Monazam Tabrizi

Geography

COVID-19 accentuates the case for a global, rather than an international, development paradigm. The novel disease is a prime example of a development challenge for all countries, through the failure of public health as a global public good. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the falsity of any assumption that the global North has all the expertise and solutions to tackle global challenges, and has further highlighted the need for multi-directional learning and transformation in all countries towards a more sustainable and equitable world. We illustrate our argument for a global development paradigm by examining the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic …

Cognitive Biases About Climate Variability In Smallholder Farming Systems In Zambia, Kurt B. Waldman, Noemi Vergopolan, Shahzeen Z. Attari, Justin Sheffield, Lyndon Estes, Kelly K. Caylor, Tom P. Evans

Geography

Given the varying manifestations of climate change over time and the influence of climate perceptions on adaptation, it is important to understand whether farmer perceptions match patterns of environmental change from observational data. We use a combination of social and environmental data to understand farmer perceptions related to rainy season onset. Household surveys were conducted with 1171 farmers across Zambia at the end of the 2015/16 growing season eliciting their perceptions of historic changes in rainy season onset and their heuristics about when rain onset occurs. We compare farmers' perceptions with satellite-gauge-derived rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared …

Anticipating Climatic Variability: The Potential Of Ecological Calendars, Karim Aly Kassam, Morgan Ruelle, Cyrus Samimi, Antonio Trabucco, Jianchu Xu

Sustainability and Social Justice

No abstract provided.

Why Achieving The Paris Agreement Requires Reduced Overall Consumption And Production, Eva Alfredsson, Magnus Bengtsson, Halina Szejnwald Brown, Cindy Isenhour, Sylvia Lorek, Dimitris Stevis, Philip Vergragt

Sustainability and Social Justice

Technological solutions to the challenge of dangerous climate change are urgent and necessary but to be effective they need to be accompanied by reductions in the total level of consumption and production of goods and services. This is for three reasons. First, private consumption and its associated production are among the key drivers of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, especially among highly emitting industrialized economies. There is no evidence that decoupling of the economy from GHG emissions is possible at the scale and speed needed. Second, investments in more sustainable infrastructure, including renewable energy, needed in coming decades will require extensive amounts …

Financial Assessment Of Agricultural Lands At Risk To Coastal Salt Marsh Migration In Relation To Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise In Dorchester County, Maryland, Jewell Porter

Sustainability and Social Justice

The increasing rate and effects of sea level rise is a major environmental concern in the Chesapeake Bay. This paper evaluates the impacts of rising sea level on coastal salt marshes and the surrounding agricultural lands at risk in Dorchester County, Maryland to build off existing environmental monitoring work performed by NOAA’s Sentinel Site Program. The results of the spatial analysis were used to estimate monetary benefits to incentivize farmers to protect these marshes by making their land available for marsh migration to occur. Looking at three scenarios of sea level rise and marsh migration, grain crops (corn, soybeans, and …

Water-Based Strategies For Making The Small Beverage Industry In New England More Sustainable And Climate-Change Resilient, Michelle Kozminski

Sustainability and Social Justice

Water is a vital resource to the ecosystem, human life, and the economy. However, it is a limited resource that is threatened by a changing climate. The small beverage industry relies on large amounts of high quality water and is therefore at risk due to the uncertainties of climate change. This paper explores how the small beverage industry in New England approaches water to ensure that the industry is sustainable in the long term. A water threatened brewery in California, Sierra Nevada Brewing Company, is used to determine “best practices.” Three small beverage companies in New England are examined to …

Water-Energy Sector Collaboration In The United States: Benefits, Barriers, And Climate-Change Implications, Cassandra J. Osterhoudt

Sustainability and Social Justice

The purpose of this report is to examine the impact of the water-energy nexus in the United States, and identify opportunities for increased collaboration between water and energy utilities. Through reviewing the regulatory history of both sectors, I explore how regulations on utilities align with the Porter Hypothesis, and the impacts the water-energy nexus will have moving forward, including under climate-change scenarios. The extent of collaboration between sectors has been relatively limited to states with progressive energy and water efficiency policies. This report identifies existing barriers and benefits to collaboration, and utilizes two case studies; California and Massachusetts. Results are …

Shareholder Advocacy In Corporate Elections: Case Studies In Proxy Voting Websites For Retail Investors, Robin Miller

Sustainability and Social Justice

One of the key rights shareholders retain is the right to vote on issues affecting the companies in which they invest. This voting right is seen as one of the primary means of exercising diligent corporate governance (Cole 2003, Fairfax 2009). Only 28 percent of individual investors vote in corporate elections compared with 91 percent of institutional investors. Informed voting decisions at corporate elections can be very information intensive, and theories of rational apathy and the free rider problem may explain a lack of participation from individual investors.

Many shareholders cannot attend annual corporate meetings, so they …

Fire Severity Controlled Susceptibility To A 1940s Spruce Beetle Outbreak In Colorado, Usa, Dominik Kulakowski, Thomas T. Veblen, Peter Beb

Geography

The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the …

High-Resolution Mapping Of Time Since Disturbance And Forest Carbon Flux From Remote Sensing And Inventory Data To Assess Harvest, Fire, And Beetle Disturbance Legacies In The Pacific Northwest, Huan Gu, Christopher A. Williams, Bardan Ghimire, Feng Zhao, Chengquan Huang

Geography

Accurate assessment of forest carbon storage and uptake is central to policymaking aimed at mitigating climate change and understanding the role forests play in the global carbon cycle. Disturbances have highly diverse impacts on forest carbon dynamics, making them a challenge to quantify and report. Time since disturbance is a key intermediate determinant that AIDS the assessment of disturbancedriven carbon emissions and removals legacies. We propose a new methodology of quantifying time since disturbance and carbon flux across forested landscapes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) at a fine scale (30 m) by combining remote sensing (RS)-based disturbance year, disturbance type, …

Decadal Bering Sea Seascape Change: Consequences For Pacific Walruses And Indigenous Hunters, G. Carleton Ray, Gary L. Hufford, James E. Overland, Igor Krupnik, Jerry Mccormick-Ray, Karen Frey, Elizabeth Labunski

Geography

The most signifi cant factors currently affecting the Pacifi c walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fi tness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic effi ciency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-fl oe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of …

Not Only Climate: Interacting Drivers Of Treeline Change In Europe, Dominik Kulakowski, Ignacio Barbeito, Alejandro Casteller, Ryszard J. Kaczka, Peter Bebi

Geography

Treelines have long been recognized as important ecotones and likely harbingers of climate change. However, over the last century many treelines have been affected not only by global warming, but also by the interactions of climate, forest disturbance and the consequences of abrupt demographic and economic changes. Recent research has increasingly stressed how multiple ecological, biophysical, and human factors interact to shape ecological dynamics. Here we highlight the need to consider interactions among multiple drivers to more completely understand and predict treeline dynamics in Europe.

Interactions Among Spruce Beetle Disturbance, Climate Change And Forest Dynamics Captured By A Forest Landscape Model, Christian Temperli, Thomas T. Veblen, Sarah J. Hart, Dominik Kulakowski, Alan J. Tepley

Geography

The risk of bark beetle outbreaks is widely predicted to increase because of a warming climate that accelerates temperature-driven beetle population growth and drought stress that impairs host tree defenses. However, few if any studies have explicitly evaluated climatically enhanced beetle population dynamics in relation to climate-driven changes in forest composition and structure that may alter forest suitability for beetle infestation. We synthesized current understanding of the interactions among climate, spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) and forest dynamics to parameterize and further advance the bark beetle module of a dynamic forest landscape model (LandClim) that also integrates fire and wind disturbance …

Political Ecologies Of Resource Extraction: Agendas Pendientes, Anthony J. Bebbington

Geography

Research related to extractive industries has grown significantly over the last decade. As the commodities boom appears to be winding down, this essay outlines areas for potential future research. Emphasis is placed on the need for research on: the relationships among extractivism, climate change and societal transitions; the aggregate effects of the commodity boom on the environment, on societal structures, on elite formation and on cultural politics; the implications of resource extraction on the couplings of space and power at different scales and with particular reference to the Colombian peace process; and the gendered and generation dimensions of the effects …

Negative Feedbacks On Bark Beetle Outbreaks: Widespread And Severe Spruce Beetle Infestation Restricts Subsequent Infestation, Sarah J. Hart, Thomas T. Veblen, Nathan Mietkiewicz, Dominik Kulakowski

Geography

Understanding disturbance interactions and their ecological consequences remains a major challenge for research on the response of forests to a changing climate. When, where, and how one disturbance may alter the severity, extent, or occurrence probability of a subsequent disturbance is encapsulated by the concept of linked disturbances. Here, we evaluated 1) how climate and forest habitat variables, including disturbance history, interact to drive 2000s spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) infestation of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across the Southern Rocky Mountains; and 2) how previous spruce beetle infestation affects subsequent infestation across the Flat Tops Wilderness in northwestern Colorado, which experienced …