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Contingent Diachronicity And Biodiversity: Lessons From An Agent-Based Model Simulating The Impact Of Biodiversity Offsetting Policy In A Complex, Socio-Ecological System, Matthew Hare
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
BioOffset-Emergent is a spatially-explicit, agent-based model of a multi-trophic, socio-ecological system. It investigates the potential impacts of different biodiversity offsetting policy options on net biodiversity. Biodiversity offsetting is being promoted internationally as a means of facilitating socio-economically beneficial infrastructure development whilst avoiding losses to net biodiversity. Where biodiversity would be unavoidably lost as a result of infrastructure development, similar habitat in another offset location is created to restore the lost biodiversity or improve upon it. BioOffset-Emergent models the components, on a 2D raster grid, of a complex socio-ecological system in which a multi-tropic woodland ecosystem - featuring trees, the bugs …
Upscaling Participatory Modelling For Multi-Local Community-Based Climate Change Adaptation: Methodological Developments And New Insights Into The Vulnerability Of Complex, Socio-Ecological Systems, Matthew Hare
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This work reports on methodological developments of and findings from a series of participatory modelling processes implemented and adapted during several years of participatory action research, in multiple locations in Mexico, facilitating community-based climate change adaptation. The participatory modelling process involves the co-construction and joint use of qualitative, paper-based, causal loop models of the complex, socio-ecological systems in which community livelihoods and wellbeing thrive or fail. The process permits in situ collaborative system identification; co-evaluation of drivers of and threats to that system; and the co-evaluation of measures to mitigate those threats. A community´s vulnerability to climate change tends to …
Upscaling Participatory Modelling For Multi-Local Community-Based Climate Change Adaptation: Methodological Developments And New Insights Into The Vulnerability Of Complex, Socio-Ecological Systems, Matthew Hare
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This work reports on methodological developments of and findings from a series of participatory modelling processes implemented and adapted during several years of participatory action research, in multiple locations in Mexico, facilitating community-based climate change adaptation. The participatory modelling process involves the co-construction and joint use of qualitative, paper-based, causal loop models of the complex, socio-ecological systems in which community livelihoods and wellbeing thrive or fail. The process permits in situ collaborative system identification; co-evaluation of drivers of and threats to that system; and the co-evaluation of measures to mitigate those threats. A community´s vulnerability to climate change tends to …
Water-Food-Poverty Nexus, Tiziano Distefano
Water-Food-Poverty Nexus, Tiziano Distefano
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Both developed and developing countries are facing massive transformations toward low-carbon transition. As an exemplified case-study we choose Colombia. Colombia is a distinctive country in Latin America characterized by a great variety of landscapes and a strong historical legacy with colonialism, inequality and political struggles. The current study provides a comprehensive picture of the spatio-temporal distribution of several indicators regarding the economic activities, water distribution, energy and land use across 5 hydrologic regions. Our comprehensive approach highlights that regional differences are remarkable and persistent over time. From the supply side, we show that, within the national boundaries, there are both …
Analysis Of Incentive Schemes For Biodiversity Using A Coupled Agent-Based Model Of Land Use Change And Species Metacommunity Model, J. Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona, Nicholas M. Gotts
Analysis Of Incentive Schemes For Biodiversity Using A Coupled Agent-Based Model Of Land Use Change And Species Metacommunity Model, J. Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona, Nicholas M. Gotts
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We report results from roughly 20,000 runs of a coupled agent-based model of land use change and species metacommunity model. We explored the effect of increasing government incentive to improve biodiversity, in the context of other influences on land manager decision making: aspirations, input costs, and price variability. The experiments test four kinds of policy varying along two dimensions: activity-versus-outcome-based incentive, and individual-versus-collective incentive. The results reveal critical thresholds in incentive schemes, where a sudden increase in environmental benefit occurs for a small increase in incentive. Further, the context affects the level of incentive at which tipping points occur, and …
Integrating Land Markets, Land Management, And Ecosystem Function In A Model Of Land Change, Derek T. Robinson, Tatiana Filatova, Shipeng Sun, Rick L. Riolo, Daniel G. Brown, Dawn C. Parker, Meghan Hutchins, William S. Currie, Joan I. Nassauer
Integrating Land Markets, Land Management, And Ecosystem Function In A Model Of Land Change, Derek T. Robinson, Tatiana Filatova, Shipeng Sun, Rick L. Riolo, Daniel G. Brown, Dawn C. Parker, Meghan Hutchins, William S. Currie, Joan I. Nassauer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present the conceptual design of a new land-change modelling framework that builds on previous land-change research and models (i.e. ALMA, SOME, DEED). The design integrates agents of land change, land-market mechanisms, land-management behaviour and its ecosystem impacts, and land-policy scenarios into a single framework that can be used to address questions about land-change processes in exurban environments. The framework is implemented in Java, built using the Repast Simphony agent-based libraries within the Eclipse integrated development environment. The framework serves as a platform for integrating human and natural processes, as well as data that include social surveys of residential landscape …
The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan
The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Although climate change adaptation can occur over various political, social, and institutionalscales, the majority of adaptation decisions take place at the local level where an intimate understanding ofthe particularities of local circumstances (i.e. successful responses to past extremes events) exist alongsidea lack of formalised expertise in projecting and analyzing future possibilities. The relationship between theexperts who produce counterfactual knowledge, and the individuals who apply it, is thus central to thechallenge of responding to climate change successfully. I present a deliberately polarized caricature of thisrelationship in an attempt to facilitate knowledge exchange (i.e. to identify barriers to knowledgeexchange). Through bibliometric analysis …
Analysis Of Incentive Schemes For Biodiversity Using A Coupled Agent-Based Model Of Land Use Change And Species Metacommunity Model, J. Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona, Nicholas M. Gotts
Analysis Of Incentive Schemes For Biodiversity Using A Coupled Agent-Based Model Of Land Use Change And Species Metacommunity Model, J. Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona, Nicholas M. Gotts
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We report results from roughly 20,000 runs of a coupled agent-based model of land use change and species metacommunity model. We explored the effect of increasing government incentive to improve biodiversity, in the context of other influences on land manager decision making: aspirations, input costs, and price variability. The experiments test four kinds of policy varying along two dimensions: activity-versus-outcome-based incentive, and individual-versus-collective incentive. The results reveal critical thresholds in incentive schemes, where a sudden increase in environmental benefit occurs for a small increase in incentive. Further, the context affects the level of incentive at which tipping points occur, and …
Integrating Land Markets, Land Management, And Ecosystem Function In A Model Of Land Change, Derek T. Robinson, Tatiana Filatova, Shipeng Sun, Rick L. Riolo, Daniel G. Brown, Dawn C. Parker, Meghan Hutchins, William S. Currie, Joan I. Nassauer
Integrating Land Markets, Land Management, And Ecosystem Function In A Model Of Land Change, Derek T. Robinson, Tatiana Filatova, Shipeng Sun, Rick L. Riolo, Daniel G. Brown, Dawn C. Parker, Meghan Hutchins, William S. Currie, Joan I. Nassauer
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We present the conceptual design of a new land-change modelling framework that builds on previous land-change research and models (i.e. ALMA, SOME, DEED). The design integrates agents of land change, land-market mechanisms, land-management behaviour and its ecosystem impacts, and land-policy scenarios into a single framework that can be used to address questions about land-change processes in exurban environments. The framework is implemented in Java, built using the Repast Simphony agent-based libraries within the Eclipse integrated development environment. The framework serves as a platform for integrating human and natural processes, as well as data that include social surveys of residential landscape …
The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan
The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Although climate change adaptation can occur over various political, social, and institutionalscales, the majority of adaptation decisions take place at the local level where an intimate understanding ofthe particularities of local circumstances (i.e. successful responses to past extremes events) exist alongsidea lack of formalised expertise in projecting and analyzing future possibilities. The relationship between theexperts who produce counterfactual knowledge, and the individuals who apply it, is thus central to thechallenge of responding to climate change successfully. I present a deliberately polarized caricature of thisrelationship in an attempt to facilitate knowledge exchange (i.e. to identify barriers to knowledgeexchange). Through bibliometric analysis …
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. ’Integrated assessment’ has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This …
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. ’Integrated assessment’ has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This …
An Integrated Tool For Water Policy In Agriculture, G. M. Bazzani
An Integrated Tool For Water Policy In Agriculture, G. M. Bazzani
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The definition of proper tools to support the implementation of Water Framework Directive(WFD) is an urgent task in the European Union (EU). Agriculture deserves special attention since in mostcountries water consumption is higher than in other sectors and pollution due to irrigated agricultural activityis often a serious problem, while social and cultural issues are relevant. The paper presents a program calledDSIRR designed to conduct an integrated analysis of water use in agriculture considering agronomic,hydraulic, economic and environmental aspects as well as complexity and uncertainty for decision making.The tool permits to analyze in great detail the relevant production systems existing in …