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Looking Past The Spark To Find The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire, Luke M. Brantley
Looking Past The Spark To Find The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire, Luke M. Brantley
Theses and Dissertations
The field of statistical conflict prediction addresses region-wide analysis in eras of stable conflict and peace. This study improves upon those prediction rates in times of volatile conflict and peace seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition in certain Middle Eastern and North African countries occurred than normally observed in previous studies. Due to the fact that previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition and since the proper strategy for handling the Arab Spring has been highly debated, this study considers alterations to previous studies …