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Is Closing The Agricultural Yield Gap A "Risky" Endeavor?, Nicolas Gatti, Michael Cecil, Kathy Baylis, Lyndon Estes, Jordan Blekking, Thomas Heckelei, Noemi Vergopolan, Tom Evans

Geography

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel …