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Elections And Economic Turbulence In Brazil: Candidates, Voters, And Investors, Tony Petros Spanakos, Lucio R. Renno

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor …

Small Individual Loans And Mental Health: A Randomized Controlled Trial Among South African Adults, Lia C. H. Fernald, Rita Hamad, Dean Karlan, Emily J. Ozer, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

Background: In the developing world, access to small, individual loans has been variously hailed as a poverty-alleviation tool – in the context of "microcredit" – but has also been criticized as "usury" and harmful to vulnerable borrowers. Prior studies have assessed effects of access to credit on traditional economic outcomes for poor borrowers, but effects on mental health have been largely ignored.

Methods: Applicants who had previously been rejected (n = 257) for a loan (200% annual percentage rate – APR) from a lender in South Africa were randomly assigned to a "second-look" that encouraged loan officers to approve their …

Epidemiologic And Economic Study Of Hyperelastosis Cutis/Herda In The Quarter Horse Cutting Industry, Sally Grant Tipton

Theses and Dissertations

Hyperelastosis Cutis (HC) is an autosomal recessive disorder in Quarter Horses. Homozygous (Hr/Hr) horses are affected with fragile, hyperextensible skin that sloughs and scars easily following minor trauma. Heterozygous (N/Hr) horses appear normal, but carry one copy of the gene. Objectives were to determine inbreeding coefficients of affected (Hr/Hr), carrier (N/Hr), and normal (N/N) Quarter Horses, compared to Thoroughbreds, and evaluate economic effects of HC within the cutting horse industry. Of the top cutting horses from 1985 through 2006, 35 were confirmed carriers by either DNA analysis or production of affected offspring. Although 23% of the earnings from the leading …

Nigerian Stock Market Reflection Of The Global Finance Crisis: An Evaluation, Sere- Ejembi A. A.

Bullion

With its roots in banking, the sub-prime mortgage crisis that commenced in the United States in 2007 soon resonated in other sectors of its financial system, and the economy, at large. It spread quickly to the developed economies in Europe, including the United Kingdom, and Asia. In the case of the Nigerian stock market, following initial relative insulation, the speed of contagion and response was comparatively slower. However, the effects began to manifest in the first quarter of 2008. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to review the global financial crisis, in the context of its recent effects on …

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis, Wenshwo Fang, Stephen M. Miller, Chunshen Lee

Economics Working Papers

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

Modeling The Volatility Of Real Gdp Growth: The Case Of Japan Revisited, Wenshwo Fang, Stephen M. Miller

Economics Working Papers

Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential …

Efficient Production Of Wins In Major League Baseball, Brian Volz

Economics Working Papers

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to Major League Baseball salary and performance data from 1985 to 2006 in order to identify those teams which produced wins most efficiently and the characteristics which lead to efficient production. It is shown that on average both National and American League teams over allocate the most resources to first basemen. Additionally, it is found that National League teams should allocate significantly more resources towards starting pitching while American League teams should allocate significantly more resources toward second base. It is also observed that efficient teams use younger less experienced players and employ rosters …

Dynamic Stock Market Interactions Between The Canadian, Mexican, And The United States Markets: The Nafta Experience, Giorgio Canarella, Stephen M. Miller, Stephen K. Pollard

Economics Working Papers

This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the volatility transmission process between the three markets, using a variety of multivariate GARCH models. Our results also exhibit significant volatility transmission between the second moments of the NAFTA stock markets, albeit …

Pareto Versus Welfare, Robert C. Hockett

Cornell Law Faculty Publications

Many normatively oriented economists, legal academics and other policy analysts appear to be "welfarist" and Paretian to at least moderate degree: They deem positive responsiveness to individual preferences, and satisfaction of one or more of the familiar Pareto criteria, to be reasonably undemanding and desirable attributes of any social welfare function (SWF) employed to formulate social evaluations. Some theorists and analysts go further than moderate welfarism or Paretianism, however: They argue that "the Pareto principle" requires the SWF be responsive to individual preferences alone - a position I label "strict" welfarism - and conclude that all social evaluation should in …

The Evolution Of Reciprocity In Sizable Human Groups, Casey G. Rothschild

Economics Faculty Scholarship

The scale and complexity of human cooperation is an important and unresolved evo- lutionary puzzle. This article uses the finitely repeated n person Prisoners’ Dilemma game to illustrate how sapience can greatly enhance group-selection effects and lead to the evolutionary stability of cooperation in large groups. This affords a simple and direct explanation of the human “exception.”

A Critical Analysis Of The Cooperatives Working Together Program, Spencer N. Parkinson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This study analyzes the effectiveness of the Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program. This program is believed to have improved the farm-level price of milk since it began in July 2003. To date, no publicly available analysis addressing this question has been conducted. Total milk removed by the program was determined and expressed as a percentage of total milk produced nationally during the same time frame. Elasticity measures from prior studies were adapted to determine the impact of the program. This analysis suggests the program has had a significantly positive effect on the price of milk. Issues dealing with future action …

Treatment Of Saltcedar (Tamarix Spp.): Economics And Feasibility, Christopher L. Thompson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The invasive species Saltcedar is affecting water and land resources throughout the western states of America. Because of great water use capabilities and other ecosystem detriments, Saltcedar has been targeted for treatment.

For successful management of Saltcedar, individual landowners need to be aware of the costs and benefits of treating Saltcedar. Eleven of the most commonly reported treatment methods were evaluated for firm level economic feasibility. Evaluated on the basis of treatment cost, treatment effectiveness, Saltcedar water-use, and re-vegetation water-use, a production plan of ten years was created for each treatment method. Some treatment methods required re-treatment and were evaluated …

Development Of Outdoor Recreation Resource Amenity Indices For West Virginia, Jing Wang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Tourism has been playing an increasingly important role in the economic development and promotion for the state of West Virginia. However, how tourism resources are spatially distributed across all the states' 55 counties and have not received much attention. This study could be among the first of its kind in West Virginia to create an inventory database for 21 types of major outdoor recreation/nature-based tourism resources, and spatially examine their distribution across counties. The quantity of tourism resources is determined by measuring their actual size, length, or number, and the quality of the resources is determined by using the Analytic …

Sovereign Funds: Opportunities And Concerns, Myriam Kairouz Aucar

Myriam Kairouz Aucar

Sovereign funds are not a new notion. But they are attracting so much attention now because of their size, their rapid growth having quadrupled in size between 2003 and 2007 , and because they are investing in the US financial market institutions. This paper will explain the Sovereign Wealth Funds, address the concerns they raise as well as their importance, and try to get a view of how to balance the need for these funds with the dangers they represent. The paper also discusses some protective measures that have been emplemeted as well as some suggested protective measures.

November 18, 2008: Ursula Leguin On Economics, Bruce Ledewitz

Hallowed Secularism

Blog post, “Ursula LeGuin on Economics“ discusses politics, theology and the law in relation to religion and public life in the democratic United States of America.

The Nonpecuniary Costs Of Sarbanes Oxley, Nicholas V. Vakkur

Nicholas v Vakkur

Sarbanes Oxley is widely considered the most comprehensive economic regulation since the New Deal. While research has evaluated its financial costs, relatively little is known about the non-financial impact of the law upon firms. We develop six hypotheses regarding the non-financial impact of Sarbanes Oxley, incorporating learning from a comprehensive literature review across multiple disciplines. To evaluate this theory, an original survey was developed and implemented on a random sample of Fortune 500 firms (n = 206). An ordered probit model was used to quantify the results. While many economists consider business surveys to be at least as important as …

Saltwater Fishing In Cobscook Bay: Angler Profile And Economic Impact, Christopher Bartlett, Kevin Athearn Ph.D

Maine Sea Grant Publications

This Research in Focus fact sheet profiles the economic impact of recreational fishing in Downeast Maine. Extension associate Chris Bartlett worked with University of Maine-Machias researcher Kevin Athearn to survey recreational fishers in the Cobscook Bay region. This research is informing sustainable development initiatives in Washington County.

Measuring Unemployment Insurance Generosity, Stephane Pallage, Lyle Scruggs, Christian Zimmermann

Economics Working Papers

In this paper, we develop a methodology to summarize the various policy parameters of an unemployment insurance scheme into a single generosity parameter. Unemployment insurance policies are multdimensional objects. They are typically defined by waiting periods, eligibility duration, benefit levels and asset tests when eligible, which makes intertemporal or international comparisons difficult. To make things worse, labor market conditions, such as the likelihood and duration of unemployment matter when assessing the generosity of different policies. We build a first model with such complex characteristics. Our model features heterogeneous agents that are liquidity constrained but can self-insure. We then build a …

Unemployment Insurance Generosity: A Trans-Atlantic Comparison, Stephane Pallage, Lyle Scruggs, Christian Zimmermann

Economics Working Papers

The goal of this paper is to establish if unemployment insurance policies are more generous in Europe than in the United States, and by how much. We take the examples of France and one particular American state, Ohio, and use the methodology of Pallage, Scruggs and Zimmermann (2008) to find a unique parameter value for each region that fully characterizes the generosity of the system. These two values can then be used in structural models that compare the regions, for example to explain the differences in unemployment rates.

A Review Of The Empirical Evidence On The Effects Of Fiscal Decentralization On Economic Efficiency: With Comments On Tax Devolution To Scotland, Paul Hallwood, Ronald Macdonald

Economics Working Papers

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on tax decentralization ("tax .devolution") from central government to sub-central government. Sub-central government is taken to be levels above the local level: such as within the UK at the level of Scottish government/executive in Edinburgh, and at the provincial government level in Canada or Spain. Our interpretation of the literature is that there is increasing empirical support for the proposition that tax decentralization helps in promoting economic efficiency and economic growth. It is noted that a distinction must be drawn between tax decentralization and spending decentralization. Where tax decentralization follows spending decentralization - …

If They Could Only Eat Efficiency: How Airline Deregulation And The Bankruptcy Code Joined Forces To Undermine Airline Workers And What Can Be Done About It, Ashton S. Phillips

Ashton S. Phillips `

As a species of mass transportation, the airline industry is incapable of making a sustained profit in an unregulated economy. Without regulation, easy access to reorganization and government subsidies only facilitate bloated supply in the air travel market. Bloated supply leads to decreased market price of airfare. This decrease helps consumers, but it doesn't help airlines achieve profitability. Under the current legal scheme, if airlines can't achieve profitability, airline workers will continue to subsidize the industry with radically decreased pay and lost retirement benefits. If Congress increases airline workers' rights in bankruptcy and merger contexts, their positions will be temporarily …

Who Needs The Stock Market? Part I: The Empirical Evidence, Lawrence E. Mitchell

Lawrence E. Mitchell

Data on historical and current corporate finance trends drawn from a variety of sources present a paradox. External equity has never played a significant role in financing industrial enterprises in the United States. The only American industry that has relied heavily upon external financing is the finance industry itself. Yet it is commonly accepted among legal scholars and economists that the stock market plays a valuable role in American economic life, and a recent, large body of macroeconomic work on economic development links the growth of financial institutions (including, in the U.S, the stock market) to growth in real economic …

Institutional Arrangements, Property Rights And The Endogenity Of Comparative Advantage, Nita Ghei

Nita Ghei

Comparative advantage is determined not merely by exogenous factor endowments. Institutional arrangements, and security of property rights, affect comparative advantage and the pattern of trade as well. Developing countries would be better off using their scarce institutional capital on securing property rights rather than trying to pick “winners” using strategic trade policy.

Mortgage Justice Is Blind, John D. Geanakoplos, Susan P. Koniak

Shorter Faculty Works

THE current American economic crisis, which began with a housing collapse that had devastating consequences for our financial system, now threatens the global economy. But while we are rushing around trying to pick up all the other falling dominos, the housing crisis continues, and must be addressed.

Governance And Accountability: The Regional Development Banks, Enrique R. Carrasco, Heejin Lee, Wesley Carrington

Enrique R Carrasco

Good governance has become a mantra of the movement seeking to make multilateral financial institutions more accountable to their stakeholders while improving institutional governance. Although much of the visible criticism has been directed at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the “regional” development banks share many of the same governance and accountability problems. Important issues relating to governance and accountability include the banks’ heavily unequal voting power based on capital contributions, limited transparency and disclosure requirements, questionable efficacy of monitoring programs on the impact of the banks’ projects, and limited scope of the banks’ private complaint mechanisms. This Article …

A Troubled House Of Cards: Examining How The “Housing And Economic Recovery Act Of 2008” Fails To Resolve The Foreclosure Crisis, Chad Emerson

Chad Emerson

No abstract provided.

Bankruptcy Costs, Liability Dollarization, And Vulnerability To Sudden Stops, Uluc Aysun, Adam Honig

Economics Working Papers

Emerging market countries that have improved institutions and attained intermediate levels of institutional quality have experienced severe financial crises following capital flow reversals. However, there is also evidence that countries with strong institutions and deep capital markets are less affected by external shocks. We reconcile these two observations using a calibrated DSGE model that extends the financial accelerator framework developed in Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The model captures financial market institutional quality with creditors. ability to recover assets from bankrupt firms. Bankruptcy costs affect vulnerability to sudden stops directly but also indirectly by affecting the degree of liability dollarization. …

Optimal Test For Parameter Instability When The Unstable Process And The Error Distribution Are Unknown, Dong Jin Lee

Economics Working Papers

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended …

Deterrence, Incapacitation, And Repeat Offenders, Thomas J. Miceli

Economics Working Papers

This paper develops an economic model of criminal enforcement that combines the goals of deterrence and incapacitation. Potential offenders commit an initial criminal act if the present value of net private gains is positive. A fraction of these offenders become habitual and commit further crimes immediately upon release from their initial prison term (if any). The optimal punishment scheme in this setting generally involves a finite prison term for first-time offenders (based on the goal of deterrence), and an infinite (life) sentence for repeat offenders (based on the goal of incapacitation).

Sequential Pre-Marital Investment Games: Implications For Unemployment, James W. Boudreau

Economics Working Papers

Agents on the same side of a two-sided matching market (such as the marriage or labor market) compete with each other by making self-enhancing investments to improve their worth in the eyes of potential partners. Because these expenditures generally occur prior to matching, this activity has come to be known in recent literature (Peters, 2007) as pre-marital investment. This paper builds on that literature by considering the case of sequential pre-marital investment, analyzing a matching game in which one side of the market invests first, followed by the other. Interpreting the first group of agents as workers and the other …