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The Economic Implications Of A North Korean Nuclear Test, Marcus Noland

Marcus Noland

This essay analyzes the economic implications that a North Korean nuclear test would have on Northeast Asia. Main Argument: A North Korean nuclear test would likely have a negative, though noncatastrophic, economic impact on the region: -South Korea would likely suffer from capital flight, consequent declines in asset prices and investment, and possibly a minor budgetary loss associated with existing investment guarantees to companies operating in North Korea. - Japan’s economy would also suffer from capital flight, asset price declines, and a reduction in investment. The most radical consequence, however, would be political: a nuclear test might strengthen Japanese attitudes …