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Evaluation Of The National Weather Service Operational Hydrologic Model And Forecasts For The American River Basin, Eylon Shamir, Theresa M. Carpenter, Peter Fickenscher, Konstantine P. Georgakakos
Evaluation Of The National Weather Service Operational Hydrologic Model And Forecasts For The American River Basin, Eylon Shamir, Theresa M. Carpenter, Peter Fickenscher, Konstantine P. Georgakakos
United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications
This paper evaluates the National Weather Service operational hydrologic model and operational flow forecasts for several subbasins of the American River. The evaluation includes: (1) the quality of the 6-h operational flow forecasts with up to 5 days lead time; (2) the hydrologic model ability to reproduce observed mean daily flows; and (3) the reliability of the ensemble streamflow predictions of the hydrologic model to reproduce extremes of the monthly volume of full natural flow to Folsom Lake. The results indicate that the model represents the observed flow record well for sites and/or flow ranges unaffected by upstream regulation. Real …