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Theses/Dissertations

2006

University of Central Florida

Mathematics

Computer simulation of smallpox

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Mathematical Modeling Of Smallpox Withoptimal Intervention Policy, Niwas Lawot Jan 2006

Mathematical Modeling Of Smallpox Withoptimal Intervention Policy, Niwas Lawot

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this work, two differential equation models for smallpox are numerically solved to find the optimal intervention policy. In each model we look for the range of values of the parameters that give rise to the worst case scenarios. Since the scale of an epidemic is determined by the number of people infected, and eventually dead, as a result of infection, we attempt to quantify the scale of the epidemic and recommend the optimum intervention policy. In the first case study, we mimic a densely populated city with comparatively big tourist population, and heavily used mass transportation system. A mathematical ...