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Winds Of Change?: Projections Of Near-Surface Winds Under Climate Change Scenarios, S C. Pryor, Justin T. Schoof, R J. Barthelmie
Winds Of Change?: Projections Of Near-Surface Winds Under Climate Change Scenarios, S C. Pryor, Justin T. Schoof, R J. Barthelmie
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Changes in near–surface wind speeds due to global climate change may have profound geophysical and societal impacts. However, Global Climate Models (GCMs) are unable to replicate the historically observed magnitude and spatial variability of wind speeds, so we apply a downscaling technique to generate probability distributions of wind speeds at sites in northern Europe for historical periods (1961–1990 and 1982–2000) and two future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). Projections for the twenty-first century (C21st) indicate no evidence of substantial evolution relative to the end of the twentieth century (C20th), although there is increased divergence of results from downscaling of different GCMs toward …
An Evaluation Of Two Gcms: Simulation Of North American Teleconnection Indices And Synoptic Phenomena, Justin T. Schoof, S C. Pryor
An Evaluation Of Two Gcms: Simulation Of North American Teleconnection Indices And Synoptic Phenomena, Justin T. Schoof, S C. Pryor
Publications
We evaluate the ability of two coupled atmospheric–oceanic GCMs – the Hadley Center’s third generation coupled climate model (HadCM3) and the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis second-generation coupled model (CGCM2) – to simulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), and map patterns in the Midwest region of the United States, relative to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data. The observed (NNR-derived) and GCM-derived probability distributions and temporal behavior of the daily teleconnection indices exhibit agreement over the 1990–2001 reference period, and both GCMs successfully reproduce the range of 500-hPa map patterns over the study …