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From A Shorter Winter Season To More Storm Damage: New Hampshire Outdoor Recreation Providers Feel Climate Impacts Far More Than Visitors, Maddie Smith, Michael D. Ferguson, Lauren A. Ferguson, Alexandra R. Contosta, Elizabeth Burakowski, Dovev Levine, Shannon Rogers

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, the authors examine to what extent outdoor recreation providers and visitors in New Hampshire are impacted by annual climatic conditions representative of long-term trends, specifically, through the 2024–2028 New Hampshire Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP). For the first time, the New Hampshire SCORP included an investigation of climate-related impacts on outdoor recreation from the perspective of both visitors and providers.

The findings of the study uncovered notable disparities in how New Hampshire’s outdoor recreation providers and visitors perceive climate conditions’ impact on outdoor recreation, particularly in the categories of “winter” and “extreme weather.” Understanding the perspectives …

Population Gains Continue In New Hampshire, But The Pace Varies, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,402,054 on July 1, 2023, an increase of 24,500 residents since April 1, 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. New Hampshire gained 3,100 residents last year compared to 11,500 and 8,800 in the two preceding years, respectively. The state gained population even though it had 6,600 more deaths than births in the past three years because nearly 31,000 more people moved to the state than left it.

All ten of New Hampshire’s counties gained population between 2020 and 2023, compared to 52 percent of all …

New Hampshire Employees Working In Small Firms Lack Access To Paid Family And Medical Leave, Kristin E. Smith

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kristin Smith reports that in December 2022, just prior to the launch of the NH Paid Family and Medical Leave Program, 40 percent of New Hampshire workers did not have access to paid medical, parental, or family leave. In its first year, the program reached 14,712 workers or less than 3 percent of Granite State workers. Workers in small firms report lower rates of access than workers in larger firms. Women also have lower access to paid leave than men. In addition to a lack of awareness, low enrollment may be linked to NH Paid Family …

Large Pool Of New Voters Could Add Volatility To New Hampshire Primary, Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew Smith, Dante Scala

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Andrew Smith, and Dante Scala note a greater likelihood of volatility in the New Hampshire primary because there will be many new faces among the voters who flock to the polls on January 23. The New Hampshire electorate has experienced significant turnover since the 2020 primary. More than one-fifth of New Hampshire’s potential primary voters this year are new because in 2020 they were not old enough to vote or resided somewhere else. The ideology and political party allegiances of these young people and new migrants differ significantly from those of longtime residents. In …

"Hyperlocal" Career Pathway Programs In New Hampshire: Collaborating To Support Youth At The Secondary/Postsecondary Transition, Jayson Seaman

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

College costs and persistent workforce shortages have prompted educators, policymakers, and employers to shift the conversation on the transition from high school from a narrow “college for all” emphasis to a broader “postsecondary education” and “career pathways” perspective. The timing of this shift coincides with current and anticipated workforce needs; by 2032, New Hampshire will have 197,000 positions available across its top 80 occupations, with labor force growth projected to fill only 6,100 of those jobs.

Some commentators argue that broadening options to include career and technical education, certificates, and 2-year degrees is essential for realizing equity gains. Successfully building …

Latest Data Show All New England States Gain Population, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that population gains were widespread in New England last year, according to new Census Bureau estimates. All six states gained population for the first time since before the pandemic. New Hampshire and Maine continued to gain population, just as they have in each of the last four years. In contrast, Massachusetts and Rhode Island gained population last year after several years of population decline. Vermont and Connecticut also continued to add population.

Most of New England’s population increase came from migration, because deaths continue to exceed births in four of the …

More U.S. Women Of Childbearing Age, But Fewer Have Given Birth, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, in 2022, there were 21.9 million women aged 20–39 who had not given birth in the United States. This is 4.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession. In 2022, there were 9 percent more women 20 to 39 than in 2006, but the share who had never had a child was up by 37 percent.

The cumulative result of fewer women having children and diminishing fertility levels was 9.6 million fewer U.S. births between 2008 and …

Recent Demographic Trends Have Implications For Rural Health Care, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports nonmetropolitan (rural) America gained population between April of 2020 and July of 2022. In the preceding decade, rural areas lost population, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because births just minimally exceeded deaths. In contrast, the recent, modest rural population increase occurred because a significant net migration gain more than offset the growing excess of deaths over births fostered by the pandemic. That rural migration was strong enough to produce population growth is especially surprising given that deaths outnumbered births—in part due to the pandemic—in 85 …

Migration Sustains New Hampshire’S Population Gain: Examining The Origins Of Recent Migrants, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births. More people died (28,700) than were born (24,900) in New Hampshire in the past two years. Covid certainly contributed to this loss, but annual deaths already exceeded births in the state for several years before the pandemic.

Recently released Census data underscore the mobility of New Hampshire’s population and provide insights into the origin of the migrants to the state. Only 41 percent of the …

A Descriptive Study Of Covid-Era Movers To The Northern Forest Region: "The Perfect Balance Of Things...A Choice Based On Lifestyle, Community, And Values", Jessica A. Carson, Sarah Boege, Libby Schwaner

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

The Northern Forest—a 34-county swath of northern Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York—saw an increase in domestic migration during the pandemic, with 85 percent of the region’s counties experiencing domestic in-migration gains between 2020 and 2021, compared with 63 percent of counties in the rest of the United States. Who moved to the Northern Forest region, and why? Do they intend to stay? And what does that mean for those who already lived there?

In this research brief, authors Jess Carson, Sarah Boege, and Libby Schwaner share findings from interviews with 16 such movers (and six regional real estate …

Advancing Decarbonization In Regulated Multifamily Affordable Housing: Key Federal Levers To Achieve Meaningful Change, Housing Sustainability Advisors, Eric Hangen

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Decarbonizing affordable rental housing is critical to mitigating climate change and meeting the Biden Administration’s target for a net-zero emissions national economy by 2050. It also offers numerous benefits, including energy cost savings, improved health and well-being, and economic opportunities. However, challenges related to upfront costs, tenant turnover, technical expertise, and policy support must be addressed to accelerate the market’s adoption of decarbonization. Collaboration between governments, policymakers, landlords, tenants, and industry experts is essential to overcome these challenges and achieve a sustainable and equitable future.

We are faced with a historic moment: the Inflation Reduction Act has provided $27 billion …

New Englanders' Use Of Child Care Varies By Income, Even Among Working Households, Jessica A. Carson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Jess Carson reports that data from the U.S. Census Bureau collected between January and May 2023 show that access to child care remains uneven. Among New England households with a child under age five, 71.1 percent had used at least some child care in the past seven days. However, lower-income households are less likely to use care than higher-income households. While child care use is more prevalent among low-income households with a working adult, rates are still below those in high-income households. Findings suggest that in low-income New England households, access to early care opportunities­­—as …

New England Households Rely On A Mix Of Child Care Arrangements, Jessica A. Carson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Jess Carson reports that data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau between January and May 2023 show that 70 percent of New England households with a child under five use child care, and more than one-third of those rely on multiple arrangements. Findings suggest that even having access to a formal slot in center- or home-based care may not be sufficient for meeting families’ needs. Finding the right type and mix of care is complex and underscores the need for flexible and diverse child care options for New England families.

Three Years Of Record High Mortality And Low Fertility Leave Many States With More Deaths Than Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that with Covid-induced mortality at record highs and continuing low fertility during the past three years, U.S. births exceeded deaths by the smallest margin in more than a century. Such widespread natural decline is unprecedented. At least 22 states had a natural decline in each of the three pandemic years. Prior to the pandemic, the most states with more deaths than births in a year was 5 in 2019. There will be fewer states with more deaths than births in 2023 if the recent reductions in Covid deaths persist. But many …

A Path To Conventional Equity For Cdfis: Cdfi Equity Project Report, Charles Tansey, Michael E. Swack

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this report designed to serve the Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) sector, authors Charles Tansey and Michael Swack describe a step-by-step blueprint for accessing private equity in Stage One and conventional equity in the public market in Stage Two through participating CDFIs. In addition to providing a blueprint, the report documents the affirmation that a portion of CDFI equity can be—and should be—self-sustaining. It also demonstrates how this equity can be widely accessible by the broader CDFI industry over time.

U.S. Births Remain Near 40-Year Low For Third Consecutive Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that recent National Center for Health Statistics birth data indicate there were only 3,661,000 births in 2022, compared to 3,664,000 in 2021, and just 3,614,000 in 2020. These three birth cohorts are the smallest in 40 years and continue a birth decline that began in the era of the Great Recession. The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2022, there would have been 9.6 million more births in the last 15 years. A critical long-term question is: how many of these …

Permanent Supportive Housing As A Solution To Homelessness, Antonio Serna

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Homelessness in the United States has grown into a crisis, and those with disabling conditions, such as a physical disability, substance use disorders, or behavioral/mental health disorders, are disproportionately at risk. Prior research in Boston found that in three-quarters of shelter stays in the city between 2014 and 2018, the person was recorded as having a disability. The susceptibility of this group to homelessness and chronic homelessness is partly because disabilities correlate with lower incomes and job insecurity, which pose a challenge to maintaining long-term housing. It is for this reason that permanent supportive housing (PSH)—housing that is paired with …

Aligning Investments To Improve Population Health: A Statewide Strategy To Address The Social Determinants Of Health, Michael E. Swack, Sarah Boege, Kevin Barnett

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this report, authors Michael Swack, Sarah Boege, and Kevin Barnett discuss the initiative to develop a statewide strategy to address the social determinants of health in New Hampshire. Launched in 2020, this project is a collaboration between the Center for Impact Finance at the Carsey School of Public Policy at UNH, the Center to Advance Community Health and Equity (CACHE) at the Public Health Institute, the Institute for Health Policy and Practice at UNH, and the New Hampshire Hospital Association/Foundation for Healthy Communities. Michael Swack, director of the Center for Impact Finance at the Carsey School, serves as the …

Retaining Residents Is Important To New Hampshire's Future: Why Do People Stay?, Kristine Bundschuh, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

A key factor impacting New Hampshire’s demographic and economic success is retaining and growing its population. What motivates people to move to New Hampshire is important to the state’s future and garners considerable policy attention. Much less consideration is given to retaining current residents. Yet on average, nearly 1.3 million New Hampshire residents do not migrate into or out of the state in a given year. Understanding why those residents stay in New Hampshire can be an important element of the state’s comprehensive development strategy.

In this brief, authors Kristine Bundschuh and Kenneth Johnson discuss the results of NH Granite …

On The Road Lending Program Evaluation: Final Report, Michael E. Swack, Jolan Rivera, Sanjeev Sharma

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this report, Michael Swack, Jolan Rivera, and Sanjeev Sharma discuss the results of the On The Road Lending (OTRL) program evaluation.

OTRL and its sister CDFI, On the Road Sustainability Funds (OTRSF), share a common mission to promote prosperity within America’s working families through transportation and financial innovation. While OTRL and OTRDF measure and report on many environmental, social, and financial outcomes, the most important are economic mobility measures and improvements in quality of life, namely, greater agency, and control of options through more wealth and time (OTRL, 2021).

OTRL clients work with a coach who provides vehicle purchase …

Population Gains Widespread In New Hampshire Counties Due To Migration, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 17,700 to 1,395,000 between April 2020, when the 2020 Census was conducted, and July 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. These population gains were widespread, occurring in each of the state’s ten counties despite deaths exceeding births in nine of the ten counties. The entire population gain accrued because 21,600 more people moved to the state than left it. The data underscore the continuing importance of migration to the state’s future. Such migration gains result both from attracting migrants to the state …

New Census Data Reflect The Continuing Impact Of Covid On U.S. Demographic Trends, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, according to recent Census Bureau estimates, the U.S. population has grown at the slowest rate in history in the past two years due to the impact of Covid. Deaths exceeded births in 75 percent of all U.S. counties, far more than at any point in the past. Most of the modest population gain was due to migration, and its extent varied along the rural-urban continuum. Looking ahead, the size and distribution of future population gains remain uncertain. As the impact of the pandemic wanes, the excess of births over deaths is …

New Hampshire Parents Use Child Care But Seek More Options, Jessica A. Carson, Sarah Boege

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Jess Carson and Sarah Boege describe child care use and gaps among respondents to the 2022 New Hampshire Preschool Development Grant Family Needs Assessment Survey. The authors report that three-quarters of responding parents with children under age five had searched for child care in the past 12 months; half reported that their search was difficult, with a lack of openings as the main challenge. Despite these difficulties, three-quarters of respondents with young children reported using some form of regular child care. However, four out of five parents who used care rated their child care arrangement as …

Supportive Program Strengths And Gaps For New Hampshire Families: "Just Enough Money To Barely Pay For Most Things", Sarah Boege, Jessica A. Carson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Sarah Boege and Jess Carson describe child and family program use and gaps among respondents to the 2022 New Hampshire Preschool Development Grant Family Needs Assessment Survey. Parents with children under age nine were asked about programs to help meet family food needs and to support child development and education. The authors find that nearly half of parent respondents used at least one of the programs in question, with the National School Lunch Program having the widest reach. Responding parents were generally familiar with food assistance programs, but less familiar with child development and education programs. …

Local Civic Health: A Guide To Building Community And Bridging Divides, Quixada Moore-Vissing, Carrie Portrie, Michele Holt-Shannon, Bruce L. Mallory, Jessica A. Carson, Daniel Bromberg, Sarah Boege, Carly Prescott, Steph Mcnally, Mikayla Townsend

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In the same way that doctors conduct an annual check-up to assess our health, we can collect information to assess the civic health of our communities. Civic health includes factors such as how much people trust each other, show up at public meetings, get involved, vote, and help out neighbors.

This seven-part guide is designed to help people at the local level collect data to better understand what factors bring people together or push them apart. This information can help communities to thrive and strengthen democracy at the local level.

The guide includes exercises around mapping the different populations who …

Changing Child Care Supply In New Hampshire And Vermont’S Upper Valley, Jessica A. Carson, Sarah Boege

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Jess Carson and Sarah Boege describe changes in the early childhood education and care landscape of Grafton and Sullivan Counties in New Hampshire and Orange and Windsor Counties in Vermont, collectively known as the Upper Valley. The authors find that the Upper Valley lost 25 regulated child care providers serving children under age 5 between 2017 and 2021. However, with closure rates twice as high among family-based providers than among center-based providers and some new providers opening, the net number of slots has remained relatively stable (5,169 slots in 2021). The overall effect has been to …

Why Interstate Child Care Scholarship Policy Choices Matter In The Upper Valley: "You Can Only Charge The Families So Much", Sarah Boege, Jessica A. Carson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, the authors explore how state-level decisions in New Hampshire and Vermont manifest in the early childhood education and care sector, through the lens of the interstate Upper Valley region. They demonstrate the significant differences in the reach and adequacy of child care financial assistance programs (“child care scholarships”) across state lines, with Vermont’s program setting family income eligibility thresholds higher and delivering higher-value reimbursements to child care providers than New Hampshire’s program. While scholarships are key for widening low-income families’ access to high quality care, they are not a panacea. Not all eligible families participate in child …

Child Care Investments And Policies In The Upper Valley, In The Pandemic And Beyond: “People Have To Hurry Because This Arpa Funding Isn’T Going To Last Forever”, Sarah Boege, Jessica A. Carson, Kamala Nasirova

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, the authors illustrate New Hampshire and Vermont’s different responses to supporting the early childhood education and care sector during the COVID-19 pandemic and examine the limited publicly available data on pandemic relief funds through the lens of the interstate Upper Valley region. While data limitations preclude the authors from identifying which child care pandemic relief programs worked best and for whom, the authors find spatial and program type differences in relief receipt. Using data from interviews with early childhood educators in the Upper Valley, the authors identify the role that temporary relief funds have played in keeping …

Institutional Grantmaking To New Hampshire Nonprofits, Jessica A. Carson, Alison Moore

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In 2019, the New Hampshire Funders Forum contacted the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire for support in creating an inaugural report on institutional grantmaking in the state. After initial exploration raised questions about the comprehensiveness of existing data sources, the Funders Forum commissioned Carsey to develop an alternate approach utilizing original tax filings to create the most accurate and comprehensive portrait of institutional grantmaking in the state available. This report represents the culmination of that effort and is intended to provide a baseline description of institutional grantmakers that support New Hampshire nonprofits for members …

Are Income Tax Breaks For Seniors Good For State Economic Growth?, Ben Brewer, Karen S. Conway, Jon Rork

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Ben Brewer, Karen Conway, and Jon Rork discuss the findings of their recently published study that investigates, directly, the impact on state economic growth of expanding income tax breaks for seniors. All state income tax systems contain provisions that reduce the state income tax burden for elderly households, and most modest-income elderly households owe little in state income taxes. Each year state legislatures consider expansions to these tax provisions, which tend to benefit primarily upper-income elderly households, with advocates suggesting such changes will be “good” for the state, in part by retaining and attracting elderly residents. …