Digital Commons Network^™

Generational Aspects Of U.S. Public Opinion On Renewable Energy And Climate Change, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Joel N. Hartter, Erin Bell

Sociology

The topics of climate change and renewable energy often are linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also sometimes face differently-based opposition. Analyses of U.S. and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010–2018) and northeast Oregon (2011–2018), explore the social bases of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change. Such divisions widen with education, an interaction effect documented in other studies as well. …

The News You Choose: News Media Preferences Amplify Views On Climate Change, Jessica L. Bolin, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing …

Does It Matter If People Think Climate Change Is Human Caused?, Joel N. Hartter, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Angela E. Boag, Forrest R. Stevens, Mark J. Ducey, Nils D. Christoffersen, Paul T. Oester, Michael W. Palace

Sociology

There is a growing consensus that climate is changing, but beliefs about the causal factors vary widely among the general public. Current research shows that such causal beliefs are strongly influenced by cultural, political, and identity-driven views. We examined the influence that local perceptions have on the acceptance of basic facts about climate change. We also examined the connection to wildfire by local people. Two recent telephone surveys found that 37% (in 2011) and 46% (in 2014) of eastern Oregon (USA) respondents accept the scientific consensus that human activities are now changing the climate. Although most do not agree with …

Staying In Place During Times Of Change In Arctic Alaska: The Implications Of Attachment,Alternatives, And Buffering, Henry P. Huntington, Philip A. Loring, Glenna Gannon, Shari Fox Gearheard, S. Craig Gerlach, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

The relationship between stability and change in social-ecological systems has received considerable attention in recent years, including the expectation that significant environmental changes will drive observable consequences for individuals, communities, and populations. Migration, as one example of response to adverse economic or environmental changes, has been observed in many places, including parts of the Far North. In Arctic Alaska, a relative lack of demographic or migratory response to rapid environmental and other changes has been observed. To understand why Arctic Alaska appears different, we draw on the literature on environmentally driven migration, focusing on three mechanisms that could account for …

Flood Realities, Perceptions, And The Depth Of Divisions On Climate, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Cameron P. Wake, Joel N. Hartter, Thomas G. Safford, Alli J. Puchlopek

Sociology

Research has led to broad agreement among scientists that anthropogenic climate change is happening now and likely to worsen. In contrast to scientific agreement, US public views remain deeply divided, largely along ideological lines. Science communication has been neutralised in some arenas by intense counter-messaging, but as adverse climate impacts become manifest they might intervene more persuasively in local perceptions. We look for evidence of this occurring with regard to realities and perceptions of flooding in the northeastern US state of New Hampshire. Although precipitation and flood damage have increased, with ample news coverage, most residents do not see a …

Public Awareness Of The Scientific Consensus On Climate, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

Questions about climate change elicit some of the widest political divisions of any items on recent U.S. surveys. Severe polarization affects even basic questions about the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), or whether most scientists agree that humans are changing the Earth’s climate. Statements about scientific consensus have been contentious among social scientists, with some arguing for consensus awareness as a “gateway cognition” that leads to greater public acceptance of ACC, but others characterizing consensus messaging (deliberate communication about the level of scientific agreement) as a counterproductive tactic that exacerbates polarization. A series of statewide surveys, with nationwide benchmarks, …

400 Predictions: The Search Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2015, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Julienne Stroeve

Sociology

Each Arctic summer since 2008, the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has invited researchers and the engaged public to contribute predictions regarding the September extent of Arctic sea ice. The public character of SIO, focused on a number whose true value soon becomes known, brings elements of constructive gamification and transparency to the science process. We analyze the performance of more than 400 predictions from SIO’s first eight years, testing for differences in ensemble skill across years, months and five types of method: heuristic, statistical, mixed, and ice-ocean or ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling. Results highlight a pattern of easy and difficult years, corresponding …

Wildfire, Climate, And Perceptions In Northeast Oregon, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Joel N. Hartter, Barry D. Keim, Angela E. Boag, Michael W. Palace, Forrest R. Stevens, Mark J. Ducey

Sociology

Wildfire poses a rising threat in the western USA, fueled by synergies between historical fire suppression, changing land use, insects and disease, and shifts toward a drier, warmer climate. The rugged landscapes of northeast Oregon, with their historically forest- and resource-based economies, have been one of the areas affected. A 2011 survey found area residents highly concerned about fire and insect threats, but not about climate change. In 2014 we conducted a second survey that, to explore this apparent disconnect, included questions about past and future summertime (fire season) temperatures. Although regional temperatures have warmed in recent decades at twice …

Science, Scientists, And Local Weather: Understanding Mass Perceptions Of Global Warming, Wanyun Shao, James C. Garand, Barry D. Keim, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

Objective: To explore the effects of long-term climate trends and short-term weather fluctuations, evaluations of scientists and science, political predispositions, religious affiliation, the information environment, and demographic attributes on individuals’ views about whether global warming exists and, if so, whether it is a result of natural cycles or human activity.

Methods: We use data from the 2009 Pew General Public Science Survey, along with data on long- and short-term patterns of temperature and precipitation in individuals’ home communities.

Results: We find that long-term trends in summer temperatures influence perceptions of global warming. Individuals who reside in communities with long-term warming …

Climigration? Population And Climate Change In Arctic Alaska, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Kei Saito, Philip A. Loring, Richard B. Lammers, Henry P. Huntington

Sociology

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify …

Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Joel N. Hartter, Mary D. Lemcke-Stampone, David W. Moore, Thomas G. Safford

Sociology

A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about …

Trust In Scientists On Climate Change And Vaccines, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Joel N. Hartter, Kei Saito

Sociology

On climate change and other topics, conservatives have taken positions at odds with a strong scientific consensus. Claims that this indicates a broad conservative distrust of science have been countered by assertions that while conservatives might oppose the scientific consensus on climate change or evolution, liberals oppose scientists on some other domains such as vaccines. Evidence for disproportionately liberal bias against science on vaccines has been largely anecdotal, however. Here, we test this proposition of opposite biases using 2014 survey data from Oregon and New Hampshire. Across vaccine as well as climate change questions on each of these two surveys, …

Polar Facts In The Age Of Polarization, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

Many drivers of polar-region change originate in mid-latitude industrial societies, so public perceptions there matter. Building on earlier surveys of US public knowledge and concern, a series of New Hampshire state surveys over 2011–2015 tracked public knowledge of some basic polar facts. Analysis indicates that these facts subjectively fall into two categories: those that are or are not directly connected to beliefs about climate change. Responses to climate-linked factual questions, such as whether Arctic sea ice area has declined compared with 30 years ago, are politicized as if we were asking for climate-change opinions. Political divisions are less apparent with …

A Holistic Approach To Child Maltreatment, David Finkelhor, Corinna J. Tucker

Sociology

No abstract provided.

What People Know, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

No abstract provided.

Modeling Associations Between Public Understanding, Engagement And Forest Conditions In Theinland Northwest, Usa, Joel N. Hartter, Forrest R. Stevens, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Russell G. Congalton, Mark J. Ducey, Paul T. Oester

Sociology

Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how …

Husbands’ Job Loss And Wives’ Labor Force Participation During Economic Downturns: Are All Recessions The Same?, Kristin Smith, Marybeth J. Mattingly

Sociology

Earlier research showed an added-worker effect for wives when their husbands stopped working during the Great Recession (December 2007–June 2009) but not when husbands stopped working in recent years of prosperity (2004–2005). By including one recession per decade for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, this article builds upon that research by using Current Population Survey data to compare wives’ labor force responses to their husbands stopping work across three recessions to determine whether wives’ employment responses during the Great Recession differed from those during earlier recessions. Additionally, we hypothesize motivations for wives entering the labor force and consider the occupations …

Rural Environmental Concern: Effects Of Position, Partisanship And Place, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Joel N. Hartter, Thomas G. Safford, Forrest R. Stevens

Sociology

The social bases of environmental concern in rural America resemble those for the nation as a whole, but also reflect the influence of place. Some general place characteristics, such as rates of population growth or resource-industry employment, predict responses across a number of environmental issues. Other unique or distinctive aspects of local society and environment matter as well. We extend earlier work on both kinds of place effects, first by analyzing survey data from northeast Oregon. Results emphasize that “environmental concern” has several dimensions. Second, we contextualize the Oregon results using surveys from other regions. Analysis of an integrated dataset …

Predicting September Sea Ice: Ensemble Skill Of The Search Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2013, Julienne Stroeve, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth

Sociology

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than …

Predicting September Sea Ice: Ensemble Skill Of The Search Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013, Julienne Stroeve, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth

Sociology

Abstract

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather …

Weather, Climate, And The Economy: Explaining Risk Perceptions Of Global Warming, 2001-10, Wanyun Shao, Barry D. Keim, James C. Garand, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

Abstract

Two series of national survey datasets (2001-10), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data and unemployment data, are used to examine how weather and climate, economic performance, and individuals' sociodemographic backgrounds and political orientations affect public perceptions of global warming. Consistent with previous studies, political orientations play a key rolein determining public perceptions of global warming. Democrats and liberals are more likely than Republicans and conservatives to see global warming as an immediate and serious problem. Sociodemographic characteristics are also shown to be significant factors, with young people, women, and racial minorities likely to show higher concern about global …

Arctic Warming And Your Weather: Public Belief In The Connection, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Mary D. Lemcke-Stampone

Sociology

Will Arctic warming affect mid-latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably …

Assessing The Impacts Of Federal Farm Bill Programs On Rural Communities, Jessica D. Ulrich-Schad, Curt D. Grimm, Douglas Jackson-Smith

Sociology

This report summarizes the state of scientific knowledge on the impact of federal farm and food programs on rural communities in the United States. We focus on the impacts of five specific programs of what is commonly referred to as the “farm bill.” These five include farm commodity programs; farm risk management, insurance, and disaster programs; agricultural conservation programs; food and nutrition programs; and rural development programs. Although there is extensive research on the relative merits and effectiveness of specific rural development programs and policies on rural community outcomes, the impacts of the other four main farm bill programs on …

Blowin' In The Wind: Short-Term Weather And Belief In Anthropogenic Climate Change., Lawrence C. Hamilton, Mary D. Stampone

Sociology

Abstract

A series of polls provides new tests for how weather influences public beliefs about climate change. Statewide data from 5000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over 2.5 yr (2010-12) are merged with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. The surveys carry a question designed around scientific consensus statements that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents can state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons. Belief that humans are changing the climate is predicted by temperature …

Political Bias Meets Climate Bias: Overcoming Science Denial In A Politically Polarized World, Minda Berbeco, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

No abstract provided.

County-Specific Net Migration By Five-Year Age Groups, Hispanic Origin, Race And Sex 2000-2010, Richelle Winkler, Kenneth M. Johnson, Cheng Cheng, Paul R. Voss, Katherine J. Curtis

Sociology

This report documents the methodology used to prepare county-level, net migration estimates by five-year age cohorts and sex, and by race and Hispanic origin, for the intercensal period from 2000 to 2010. The estimates were prepared using a vital statistics version of the forward cohort residual method (Siegel and Hamilton 1952) following the techniques used to prepare the 1990 to 2000 net migration estimates (Voss, McNiven, Johnson, Hammer, and Fuguitt 2004) as described in detail below. These numbers (and the net migration rates derivable from them) extend the set of decennial estimates of net migration that have been produced following …

Demographic Trends In Nonmetropolitan America: Implications For Land Use Development And Conservation., Kenneth M. Johnson

Sociology

This research contributes new information delineating the rapidity and geographic scale at which demographic change is occurring in non-metropolitan America. Rural areas are being buffeted by economic, social, and governmental transformations from far beyond their borders. These structural transformations are reflected in the demographic trends playing out across the vast rural landscape in the first decade of the twenty-first century. The patterns of demographic change in rural America are complex and subtle, but their impact is not. Population change has significant implications for the people, places, and institutions of rural America; for the natural environment that is a fundamental part …

In The Wake Of The Spill: Environmental Views Along The Gulf Coast, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Thomas G. Safford, Jessica D. Ulrich

Sociology

Abstract

Objectives

We analyze patterns in environmental views of Gulf Coast residents, in the wake of the 2010 oil spill. To what extent do spill-related and other environmental views vary with individual characteristics, personal experience with the spill, or characteristics of place?

Methods

About 2,000 residents of selected coastal regions in Louisiana and Florida were interviewed by telephone in late summer 2010.

Results

One-quarter of the respondents said that their environmental views had changed as a result of the spill. Despite reporting more change, more spill effects, and greater threats from climate-induced sea-level rise, Louisiana respondents were less likely to …

Did The Arctic Ice Recover? Demographics Of True And False Climate Facts, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Sociology

Abstract

Beliefs about climate change divide the U.S. public along party lines more distinctly than hot social issues. Research finds that better-educated orinformed respondents are more likelytoalign with their partiesonclimate change. This information-elite polarization resembles a process of biased assimilation first described in psychological experiments. In nonexperimental settings, college graduates could be prone to biased assimilation if they more effectively acquire information that supports their beliefs. Recent national and statewide survey data show response patterns consistent with biased assimilation (and biased guessing) contributing to the correlation observed between climate beliefs and knowledge. The survey knowledge questions involve key, uncontroversial observations …

Poor Women With Sexually Transmitted Infections: Providers’ Perspectives On Diagnoses, Genevieve R. Cox

Sociology

This article presents results from a study of health care providers, mainly nurses and nurse practitioners, who routinely diagnose sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in rural low-income populations in West Virginia (WV). A qualitative analysis of eighteen semi-structured interviews reveals that providers who consistently work with low-income populations believe patients undergo a negative change in self-image in response to a chronic STD diagnosis. Providers express concerns about a number of issues related to low-income, rural women’s access to sexual health care and see the need for more sexuality education, more funding for free and reduced cost clinics, and more available health …