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Global Climate Policy Will Have Net Benefits Larger Than Anyone Thinks (And Welfare Gains, Strangely, Are Likely To Be Much Larger Yet), Philip E. Graves Oct 2016

Global Climate Policy Will Have Net Benefits Larger Than Anyone Thinks (And Welfare Gains, Strangely, Are Likely To Be Much Larger Yet), Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

As with other public goods lacking strong special interest support, global climate policy suffers from two serious theoretical flaws. The first is failure to endogenize the labor-leisure decision when conducting benefit-cost analysis. Recognition that income generated will not remain the same pre-and-post policy results in downward bias in benefit estimation. Much more importantly, there will generally be free riding in input markets in addition to the well-known output demand revelation problem. Since even households with very high marginal values cannot individually increment public goods, too little income will be generated and too much of the income that is generated will …


Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves Jan 2012

Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

There are many reasons to suspect that benefit-cost analysis applied to environmental policies will result in policy decisions that will reject those environmental policies. The important question, of course, is whether those rejections are based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in the United States, although most of the arguments translate immediately to decision-making in other countries. There are some “big picture” considerations that have gone unrecognized, and there are numerous more minor, yet cumulatively important, technical details that point to potentially large biases against acceptance on benefit-cost …


Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Environmental Projects: A Plethora Of Systematic Biases, Philip E. Graves Jan 2010

Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Environmental Projects: A Plethora Of Systematic Biases, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

There are many reasons to suspect that benefit-cost analysis applied to environmental policies will result in policy decisions that will reject those environmental policies. The important question, of course, is whether those rejections are based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in the United States, although most of the arguments translate immediately to decision-making in other countries. There are some “big picture” considerations that have gone unrecognized, and there are numerous more minor, yet cumulatively important, technical details that point to potentially large biases against acceptance on benefit-cost …


A Note On The "Union Effect" In Vsl Studies, Philip E. Graves Jan 2009

A Note On The "Union Effect" In Vsl Studies, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

Viscusi and Aldy (2003) observe that “most studies of the U.S. labor market find that union affiliation is positively correlated with a greater wage-risk tradeoff while international evidence is much more mixed.” They provide several arguments as to why the risk premium might be higher for union members (marginal versus average worker preference, the quasi-public good nature of workplace safety, and better safety information for the unionized). An alternative explanation–concentration of union membership in undesirable locations–can account for both the apparent higher risk premium in union jobs in the United States and the failure to find that gap in the …


Predicting Life Expectancy: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis, Audrey B. Hendricks, Philip E. Graves Jan 2009

Predicting Life Expectancy: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis, Audrey B. Hendricks, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

Most economic research on life expectancy focuses on building forecasting models using mortality trends or constructing parameter life expectancy models with samples of individuals. We here provide a cross-sectional model of life expectancy, using a comprehensive worldwide sample, which analyses the impact of country level variables on average life expectancy. The model variants suggest robustly that proxies for technology, education, disposable income and healthcare all have a significant and positive effect on country variation in average life expectancy, at all income levels. A proxy for the health risks/epidemics factor is significantly negative. This analysis provides information of use to governments, …


Non-Optimal Levels Of Suburbanization, Philip E. Graves Jan 2003

Non-Optimal Levels Of Suburbanization, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

Suburbanization has many causes, among which is the attempt to relocate to acquire a more desirable vector of local public goods. The traditional economists' procedure for valuing public goods involves vertical aggregation of marginal willingness to pay, at a given income level. This approach is flawed by failing to recognize that individuals will not work for goods that cannot be acquired individually with higher incomes. There will be a parallel input market failure any time there is a public good output market failure, thus the `given income' of the traditional valuation method is too low. Hence, traditional valuation methods result …