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The Application Of The Virtual Ecologist Approach To Evaluating The Effects Of Uncertainty In Plot Based Monitoring Schemes Due To Landscape Spatial And Temporal Heterogeneity, Alex Lechner, Daniel Clarke, Dion Weatherley, Andrew Fletcher, Peter Erskine, Alexis Comber
The Application Of The Virtual Ecologist Approach To Evaluating The Effects Of Uncertainty In Plot Based Monitoring Schemes Due To Landscape Spatial And Temporal Heterogeneity, Alex Lechner, Daniel Clarke, Dion Weatherley, Andrew Fletcher, Peter Erskine, Alexis Comber
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Monitoring programs that can detect changes in ecosystem condition are critical to assessing the success of rehabilitation and detecting negative anthropogenic impacts from activities such as mining. However, vegetation communities vary considerably and may exhibit short-term condition changes that mask long-term trends. This paper describes the development of a virtual ecologist (VE) landscape and observation simulation model for time-series data (VELOS_t). VELOS_t can be used to quantify the relationship between vegetation temporal and spatial variability, measurement uncertainty and sampling design to evaluate the robustness of a particular monitoring strategy. The model has four components: i) a landscape model that uses …
Combining Socio-Economic And Ecological Modelling To Inform Natural Resource Management Strategies, Johannes P. M. Heinonen, Justin M. J. Travis, Steve M. Redpath, Michelle A. Pinard
Combining Socio-Economic And Ecological Modelling To Inform Natural Resource Management Strategies, Johannes P. M. Heinonen, Justin M. J. Travis, Steve M. Redpath, Michelle A. Pinard
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Effective management of natural resources requires understanding both the dynamics of the natural systems being subjected to management and the decision-making behaviour of stakeholders who are involved in the management process. We suggest that simulation modelling techniques can provide a powerful method platform for the transdisciplinary integration of ecological, economic and sociological aspects that is needed for exploring the likely outcomes of different management approaches and options. A concise review of existing literature on ecological and socio-economic modelling and approaches at the interface of these fields is presented followed by a framework coupling an individual-based ecological model with an agent-based …
Simulating Shocks With The Hypercycles Model Of Economic Production, Christopher Watts, Claudia R. Binder
Simulating Shocks With The Hypercycles Model Of Economic Production, Christopher Watts, Claudia R. Binder
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Padgett’s hypercycles model of economic production (Padgett et al. 2003) is an agent-based simulation that demonstrates the emergence of novel forms of social organisation among limited-intelligence agents. In this paper we argue that it can be extended to explore issues of resilience and the responses to shocks in complex systems of agent-environment interactions. Based on learning by doing, a simple search heuristic enables a population of firms to adapt and find system states containing a collectively self-sustaining subset of firms with production rules and mix of materials in the environment. The self-sustaining systems Padgett finds persist in spite of variability …
A Model-Based Quantitative Assessment Of Ecosystem Services In The Scenarios Of Environmental Management, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova
A Model-Based Quantitative Assessment Of Ecosystem Services In The Scenarios Of Environmental Management, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
It is well recognized that ecological systems generate a spectrum of diverse benefits that are vital to humankind. Sustainable environmental management requires an adequate consideration of ecosystem goods and services. The problem, however, is that many of the ecological and social amenities are not currently incorporated into the decision-making process. A fundamental issue is getting at the quantitative characteristics of the ecosystem services. Publications on this matter note that simulation models of the phenomena in question have to be used for this purpose. In fact, a whole family of simulation models is required. Such models should represent the main components …
Simulating The Thames Water Resource System Using Iras-2010, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou
Simulating The Thames Water Resource System Using Iras-2010, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Interactive River-Aquifer Simulation 2010 (IRAS-2010) is a computationally efficient open-source water resource management simulation computer program. Given hydrological inflows, evaporation rates, water allocation and reservoir release rules, consumptive water demands and minimum flows, IRAS-2010 estimates flows and storages throughout the node-link water resource network at each time period. The program is an updated version of a code originally developed at Cornell University. It now links to a generic customizable user-interface for water models called HydroPlatform. This paper briefly describes IRAS-2010 then describes an application of IRAS-2010 to the Thames river system (UK). The system is simulated weekly over an …
Quantifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Bernd Gruber, Carsten F. Dormann
Quantifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Bernd Gruber, Carsten F. Dormann
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The ecosystem services concept evaluates ecosystem functions from a human perspective, e.g. the concept focuses on the contribution of ecosystem functions, ecosystem goods and services or human well-being. An evaluation allows the analysis of trade-offs between different ecosystem services as well as between ecosystem services and other components of human well-being. We will test three options to compare trade-offs between ecosystem services, namely map comparison, scenario analysis and trade-off analysis using optimized landscapes. While map comparison and scenario analysis are valuable tools to study ecosystem service trade-offs we emphasize the use of optimized landscapes for tradeoff analysis. Overall, analysis of …
Modelling Spatiotemporal Variability Of Natural Forest Fire Size Class Distribution In A Boreal Forest, Wenbin Cui, Ajith H. Perera
Modelling Spatiotemporal Variability Of Natural Forest Fire Size Class Distribution In A Boreal Forest, Wenbin Cui, Ajith H. Perera
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Forest fire size distribution describes the quantitative relationship between fire size and its correspondingnumber of occurrences in a forest landscape or region over a certain period. The knowledge of it has beenused in forest fire management planning and assessment. However, there are still limitations in theempirical study of forest fire size distribution because the poor availability and low quality of fire data. Inthis study we explored the stochastic and spatio-temporal variability of forest fire size distribution ofnatural fires in a boreal forest landscape by way of simulation modelling and comparing it to empiricaldata. We found that fire size distribution is …
A Model-Based Quantitative Assessment Of Ecosystem Services In The Scenarios Of Environmental Management, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova
A Model-Based Quantitative Assessment Of Ecosystem Services In The Scenarios Of Environmental Management, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
It is well recognized that ecological systems generate a spectrum of diverse benefits that are vital to humankind. Sustainable environmental management requires an adequate consideration of ecosystem goods and services. The problem, however, is that many of the ecological and social amenities are not currently incorporated into the decision-making process. A fundamental issue is getting at the quantitative characteristics of the ecosystem services. Publications on this matter note that simulation models of the phenomena in question have to be used for this purpose. In fact, a whole family of simulation models is required. Such models should represent the main components …
Simulating The Thames Water Resource System Using Iras-2010, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou
Simulating The Thames Water Resource System Using Iras-2010, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Interactive River-Aquifer Simulation 2010 (IRAS-2010) is a computationally efficient open-source water resource management simulation computer program. Given hydrological inflows, evaporation rates, water allocation and reservoir release rules, consumptive water demands and minimum flows, IRAS-2010 estimates flows and storages throughout the node-link water resource network at each time period. The program is an updated version of a code originally developed at Cornell University. It now links to a generic customizable user-interface for water models called HydroPlatform. This paper briefly describes IRAS-2010 then describes an application of IRAS-2010 to the Thames river system (UK). The system is simulated weekly over an …
Quantifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Bernd Gruber, Carsten F. Dormann
Quantifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Bernd Gruber, Carsten F. Dormann
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The ecosystem services concept evaluates ecosystem functions from a human perspective, e.g. the concept focuses on the contribution of ecosystem functions, ecosystem goods and services or human well-being. An evaluation allows the analysis of trade-offs between different ecosystem services as well as between ecosystem services and other components of human well-being. We will test three options to compare trade-offs between ecosystem services, namely map comparison, scenario analysis and trade-off analysis using optimized landscapes. While map comparison and scenario analysis are valuable tools to study ecosystem service trade-offs we emphasize the use of optimized landscapes for tradeoff analysis. Overall, analysis of …
Modelling Spatiotemporal Variability Of Natural Forest Fire Size Class Distribution In A Boreal Forest, Wenbin Cui, Ajith H. Perera
Modelling Spatiotemporal Variability Of Natural Forest Fire Size Class Distribution In A Boreal Forest, Wenbin Cui, Ajith H. Perera
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Forest fire size distribution describes the quantitative relationship between fire size and its correspondingnumber of occurrences in a forest landscape or region over a certain period. The knowledge of it has beenused in forest fire management planning and assessment. However, there are still limitations in theempirical study of forest fire size distribution because the poor availability and low quality of fire data. Inthis study we explored the stochastic and spatio-temporal variability of forest fire size distribution ofnatural fires in a boreal forest landscape by way of simulation modelling and comparing it to empiricaldata. We found that fire size distribution is …
Simulation And Scenarios Of A Social Science Concept On Urban Shrinkage, A. Haase, Dagmar Haase, S. Kabisch
Simulation And Scenarios Of A Social Science Concept On Urban Shrinkage, A. Haase, Dagmar Haase, S. Kabisch
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In our paper the hypothesis is tested whether current demographic decline, de-economisation and structural crisis are bringing about a new evolving type of urban development. In doing so, we present a novel social science concept of urban shrinkage that goes beyond the focussed population-related view of shrinkage (Kabisch et al., 2006). It rather comprises the features of non-growth, on-going sprawl and upcoming reurbanisation alike, or if reurbanisation represents, on the other hand, merely a short interplay in a long-term period of desurbanisation under the condition of demographic change and decrease in population: the core city is gradually shrinking because of …
Structure - Fate - Relationships Of Organic Chemicals, Rainer Brüggemann, Guillermo Restrepo, Kristina Voigt
Structure - Fate - Relationships Of Organic Chemicals, Rainer Brüggemann, Guillermo Restrepo, Kristina Voigt
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The evaluation of the potential risk of chemicals receives again a lot of interest due to the renewed chemicals’ policy in the EU. The model package E4CHEM (Exposure Estimation for Potentially Ecotoxic Environmental Chemicals), already developed 1984-1992, is presented in this paper. This is a model which on the one side needs less information or input parameters as the often applied EUSES (European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances) and on the other side provides modules, like EXWAT (Model for the behaviour of the chemical in rivers)) and DTEST (Automatic Data Estimation), which as such are not contained in …
The Development Of A Farming Systems Model (Apsim) A Disciplined Approach., Dean Holzworth, Holger Meinke, Peter Devoil, Malcolm Wegener, Neil Huth, Graeme Hammer, Mark Howden, Michael Robertson, Peter Carberry, David Freebairn, Chris Murphy
The Development Of A Farming Systems Model (Apsim) A Disciplined Approach., Dean Holzworth, Holger Meinke, Peter Devoil, Malcolm Wegener, Neil Huth, Graeme Hammer, Mark Howden, Michael Robertson, Peter Carberry, David Freebairn, Chris Murphy
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a mature and stable modelling framework used widely in Australia in the domain of farming systems research and extension. It is capable of simulating a diverse range of farming systems including broad acre dryland and irrigated cropping, small holder farming, on-farm agroforestry systems including the interaction of trees and crops, and through collaboration with other groups, integrated stock and cropping enterprises. APSIM was developed primarily as a research tool to investigate on-farm management practices, natural resource issues including salinity and solute movement, climate risk studies looking at modifying farm practices and climate change …
Bridging The Design-Use Gap For Dss In Environmental Policy And Practice., K. B. Matthews, M. G. Hutchins, G. Hill
Bridging The Design-Use Gap For Dss In Environmental Policy And Practice., K. B. Matthews, M. G. Hutchins, G. Hill
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Drawing on the literature of agricultural decision support systems (DSS) and experience in developing tools for policy support and evaluation, this paper argues that while in the main such tools have failed to live up to expectations it may be that the expectations were unrealistic. The design-use gap of DSS for environmental management is partially the inevitable cycle of expectations (unbelief-euphoria-disappointment and maturity or abandonment) experienced by any innovation. The environmental problems facing land managers and society are dauntingly complex. Yet more or better quality information does not inevitably lead to better management. Many of the issues that face land-use …
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. ’Integrated assessment’ has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This …
Structure - Fate - Relationships Of Organic Chemicals, Rainer Brüggemann, Guillermo Restrepo, Kristina Voigt
Structure - Fate - Relationships Of Organic Chemicals, Rainer Brüggemann, Guillermo Restrepo, Kristina Voigt
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The evaluation of the potential risk of chemicals receives again a lot of interest due to the renewed chemicals’ policy in the EU. The model package E4CHEM (Exposure Estimation for Potentially Ecotoxic Environmental Chemicals), already developed 1984-1992, is presented in this paper. This is a model which on the one side needs less information or input parameters as the often applied EUSES (European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances) and on the other side provides modules, like EXWAT (Model for the behaviour of the chemical in rivers)) and DTEST (Automatic Data Estimation), which as such are not contained in …
The Development Of A Farming Systems Model (Apsim) A Disciplined Approach., Dean Holzworth, Holger Meinke, Peter Devoil, Malcolm Wegener, Neil Huth, Graeme Hammer, Mark Howden, Michael Robertson, Peter Carberry, David Freebairn, Chris Murphy
The Development Of A Farming Systems Model (Apsim) A Disciplined Approach., Dean Holzworth, Holger Meinke, Peter Devoil, Malcolm Wegener, Neil Huth, Graeme Hammer, Mark Howden, Michael Robertson, Peter Carberry, David Freebairn, Chris Murphy
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a mature and stable modelling framework used widely in Australia in the domain of farming systems research and extension. It is capable of simulating a diverse range of farming systems including broad acre dryland and irrigated cropping, small holder farming, on-farm agroforestry systems including the interaction of trees and crops, and through collaboration with other groups, integrated stock and cropping enterprises. APSIM was developed primarily as a research tool to investigate on-farm management practices, natural resource issues including salinity and solute movement, climate risk studies looking at modifying farm practices and climate change …
Bridging The Design-Use Gap For Dss In Environmental Policy And Practice., K. B. Matthews, M. G. Hutchins, G. Hill
Bridging The Design-Use Gap For Dss In Environmental Policy And Practice., K. B. Matthews, M. G. Hutchins, G. Hill
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Drawing on the literature of agricultural decision support systems (DSS) and experience in developing tools for policy support and evaluation, this paper argues that while in the main such tools have failed to live up to expectations it may be that the expectations were unrealistic. The design-use gap of DSS for environmental management is partially the inevitable cycle of expectations (unbelief-euphoria-disappointment and maturity or abandonment) experienced by any innovation. The environmental problems facing land managers and society are dauntingly complex. Yet more or better quality information does not inevitably lead to better management. Many of the issues that face land-use …
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
Integrated Assessments Of Climate Variability And Change For Australian Agriculture – Connecting The Islands Of Knowledge, Holger Meinke, Mark Howden, Rohan Nelson
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Key clients for regional or national assessment capabilities are government and industry policymakers, who must deal with constantly changing policy questions. For instance, adaptation to climate change has relatively recently come onto the policy agenda, as has the interaction between adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. ’Integrated assessment’ has therefore become a common approach that attempts to demonstrate the policy relevance of science. It is intended to inform policies that ultimately lead to better risk management of agro-ecosystems (amongst other objectives). Increasingly policy stakeholders also demand realistic assessments of uncertainties that are associated with the scenarios underpinning such integrated assessments. This …
Modelling The Impact Of Environmental Policies On Minerals Investment, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles
Modelling The Impact Of Environmental Policies On Minerals Investment, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper describes an application of the tools and techniques of the system dynamics method to the complex problem of understanding those factors which impact the flow of international mineral investment funds. The theoretical underpinning of the paper is a simulation model developed in Powersim in the system dynamics tradition. The model, comprising over 180 variables, provides a means of examining the effects of varied environmental, fiscal and corporate policies on the flow of investment funds and mineral resources between 4 simulated mining firms and 4 competing countries. It attempts to expose – to policy makers – the complexity of …
A Distributed Simulation System For Irrigation Planning At The Catchment Scale, C. Gandolfi, A. Facchi, B. Ortuani, D. Maggi
A Distributed Simulation System For Irrigation Planning At The Catchment Scale, C. Gandolfi, A. Facchi, B. Ortuani, D. Maggi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The paper presents the prototype of a simulation system which reproduces all the hydrological processes relevant in alluvial irrigated plains. It allows the evaluation of the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as the simulation of the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources. The simulation package is based on the coupling of two hydrological models - a submodel of the unsaturated soil layer and a sub-model of the aquifer system- with a Geographical Information System (GIS). The prototype has been applied to a large irrigation district, of approximately 700 km2, located in the densely-settled Lombardia …