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Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

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Trade

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Technology And The Global Economy, Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum Mar 2024

Technology And The Global Economy, Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models.


Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker Jan 2015

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …


Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker Jan 2015

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, emissions of the most common air pollutants from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent, even as real U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially. This paper develops a quantitative model to explain how changes in trade, environmental regulation, productivity, and consumer preferences have contributed to these reductions in pollution emissions. We estimate the model’s key parameters using administrative data on plant-level production and pollution decisions. We then combine these estimates with detailed historical data to provide a model-driven decomposition of the causes of the observed pollution changes. Finally, we compare the model-driven decomposition to a statistical decomposition. The …


Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker Jan 2015

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …


Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker Jan 2015

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …


Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker Jan 2015

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …


International Finance In General Equilibrium, John Geanakoplos, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos Jul 2001

International Finance In General Equilibrium, John Geanakoplos, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our purpose in this paper is to unify international trade and finance in a single general equilibrium model. Our model is rich enough to include multiple commodities (including traded and nontraded goods), heterogeneous consumers in each country, multiple time periods, multiple credit markets, and multiple currencies. Yet our model is simple enough to be effectively computable. We explicitly calculate the financial and real effects of changes in tariffs, productivity, and preferences, as well as the effects of monetary and fiscal policy. We maintain agent optimization, rational expectations, and market clearing (i.e., perfect competition with flexible prices) throughout. But because of …