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China’S Missing Pigs: Correcting China’S Hog Inventory Data Using A Machine Learning Approach, Yongtong Shao, Minghao Li, Dermot Hayes, Wendong Zhang, Tao Xiong, Wei Xie Aug 2020

China’S Missing Pigs: Correcting China’S Hog Inventory Data Using A Machine Learning Approach, Yongtong Shao, Minghao Li, Dermot Hayes, Wendong Zhang, Tao Xiong, Wei Xie

CARD Working Papers

Small sample size often limits forecasting tasks such as the prediction of production, yield, and consumption of agricultural products. Machine learning offers an appealing alternative to traditional forecasting methods. In particular, Support Vector Regression has superior forecasting performance in small sample applications. In this article, we introduce Support Vector Regression via an application to China’s hog market. Since 2014, China’s hog inventory data has experienced an abnormal decline that contradicts price and consumption trends. We use Support Vector Regression to predict the true inventory based on the price-inventory relationship before 2014. We show that, in this application with ...


A Fortune From Misfortune: Evidence From Hog Firms’ Stock Price Responses To China’S African Swine Fever, Tao Xiong, Wendong Zhang, Chen-Ti Chen Jun 2020

A Fortune From Misfortune: Evidence From Hog Firms’ Stock Price Responses To China’S African Swine Fever, Tao Xiong, Wendong Zhang, Chen-Ti Chen

CARD Working Papers

China is the world’s largest pork producer and a leading pork importer. Since Au- gust 2018, ongoing outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF), a highly contagious and deadly disease affecting pigs, have hit China’s livestock industries and wiped out 40% of China’s pigs. We leverage data on daily stock returns from 25 major publicly listed firms from China and eight major pork-exporting countries to provide the first systematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of the outbreaks. We find that on average announcements of ASF outbreaks have led to positive and significant stock returns for both Chinese ...


Estimating The Value Of Innovation And Extension Information: Scn-Resistant Soybean Varieties, Seungki Lee, Giancarlo Moschini Jun 2020

Estimating The Value Of Innovation And Extension Information: Scn-Resistant Soybean Varieties, Seungki Lee, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

This paper presents direct evidence on the impact of a specific extension program that is aimed at promoting the adoption of varieties resistant to the soybean cyst nematode (SCN), specifically the Iowa State University SCN-Resistant Soybean Variety Trials (ISU-SCN). We use two data sources: the ISU-SCN experimental data, and a rich proprietary dataset on farmers’ seed purchases. Combining these data, we estimate the value of SCN-resistant variety availability, and the associated variety trials that provide information on their performance, to farmers and seed companies. Given the scope and diffusion of this extension program, the focus of the analysis is on ...


A Fortune From Misfortune: Evidence From Hog Firms’ Stock Price Responses To China’S African Swine Fever, Tao Xiong, Wendong Zhang, Chen-Ti Chen Jun 2020

A Fortune From Misfortune: Evidence From Hog Firms’ Stock Price Responses To China’S African Swine Fever, Tao Xiong, Wendong Zhang, Chen-Ti Chen

CARD Working Papers

China is the world’s largest pork producer and a leading pork importer. Since Au- gust 2018, ongoing outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF), a highly contagious and deadly disease affecting pigs, have hit China’s livestock industries and wiped out 40% of China’s pigs. We leverage data on daily stock returns from 25 major publicly listed firms from China and eight major pork-exporting countries to provide the first sys- tematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of the outbreaks. We find that on average announcements of ASF outbreaks have led to positive and significant stock returns for both ...


Best Management Practices And Nutrient Reduction: An Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Model Of The Western Lake Erie Basin, Hongxing Liu, Wedong Zhang, Elena Irwin, Jeffery Kast, Noel Aloysius, Jay Martin, Margaret Kalcic Apr 2020

Best Management Practices And Nutrient Reduction: An Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Model Of The Western Lake Erie Basin, Hongxing Liu, Wedong Zhang, Elena Irwin, Jeffery Kast, Noel Aloysius, Jay Martin, Margaret Kalcic

CARD Working Papers

We develop the first spatially integrated economic-hydrological model of the western Lake Erie basin explicitly linking economic models of farmers' field-level Best Management Practice (BMP) adoption choices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to evaluate nutrient management policy cost-effectiveness. We quantify tradeoffs among phosphorus reduction policies and find that a hybrid policy coupling a fertilizer tax with cost-share payments for subsurface placement is the most cost-effective, and when implemented with a 200% tax can achieve the stated policy goal of 40% reduction in nutrient loadings. We also find economic adoption models alone can overstate the potential for ...


Impacts Of African Swine Fever In Iowa And The United States, Miguel Carriquiry, Amani Elobeid, David Swenson, Dermot Hayes Mar 2020

Impacts Of African Swine Fever In Iowa And The United States, Miguel Carriquiry, Amani Elobeid, David Swenson, Dermot Hayes

CARD Working Papers

Our paper estimates the economic impact of an outbreak of African Swine Fever on US agriculture. The immediate impact of an outbreak would be the closure of international markets to US pork—even countries that have the disease prohibit pork imports from other countries with the disease. We evaluate two scenarios—one assumes that the disease spreads to feral swine and that the United States is unable to eliminate the disease over the ten-year projection period (the all-years scenario); and, the second scenario assumes that the United States gets the disease under control and reenters export markets within two years ...


The U.S.-China Trade War: Tariff Data And General Equilibrium Analysis, Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang Oct 2019

The U.S.-China Trade War: Tariff Data And General Equilibrium Analysis, Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang

CARD Working Papers

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the recent trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the tariff increases as of September 2019 decrease welfare in China by 1.9% and welfare in the U.S. by 0.3%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China’s exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 58.3% and 50.7 ...


A Gams/Mpsge Implementation Of The Pet Model, Matthias Weitzel, Edward J. Balistreri, Brian C. O'Neill, Xiaolin Ren Sep 2019

A Gams/Mpsge Implementation Of The Pet Model, Matthias Weitzel, Edward J. Balistreri, Brian C. O'Neill, Xiaolin Ren

CARD Working Papers

This paper describes a version of the Population-Economy-Technology (PET) model implemented in the GAMS/MPSGE programming language. The implementation of the model is comparable with the original fortran version of iPETS over a number of test cases. While a number of possible configurations exist for both model types, we demonstrate that there is a configuration that makes both implementations behave very similarly and the remaining difference can be traced to different implementations of dynamic agent behavior. This paper also serves as a methodological blueprint for model translation across different programming languages.


Long-Run Impacts Of Trade Shocks And Export Competitiveness: Evidence From The U.S. Bse Event, Chen-Ti Chen, John M. Crespi, William Hahn, Lee L. Schulz, Fawzi Taha Sep 2019

Long-Run Impacts Of Trade Shocks And Export Competitiveness: Evidence From The U.S. Bse Event, Chen-Ti Chen, John M. Crespi, William Hahn, Lee L. Schulz, Fawzi Taha

CARD Working Papers

This paper examines how comparative advantages of major beef exporters changed following the 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreak (BSE), which significantly disrupted the U.S. beef trade until approximately April 2007. Using longitudinal data on beef export values and constructed revealed comparative advantage measures, we show that while some measure of the long-run impacts of BSE on U.S. beef export competitiveness have returned to pre-2003 levels, the U.S.’s comparative advantage has not. We also examine a hypothetical scenario of no BSE event in 2003 and predict what exporters’ competitiveness would have looked like. The authors discuss the ...


Impacts Of Agricultural Price Support Policies On Price Variability And Welfare: Evidence From China’S Soybean Market, Wenting Wang, Longbao Wei Jul 2019

Impacts Of Agricultural Price Support Policies On Price Variability And Welfare: Evidence From China’S Soybean Market, Wenting Wang, Longbao Wei

CARD Working Papers

As the world’s largest importer of agricultural commodities, China’s agricultural policies have significant implications for the world agricultural market. For the first time, we develop an aggregate structural econometric model of China’s soybean market with linkage to the rest of the world to analyze the worldwide impacts of China’s soybean price support policies from 2008 to 2016. We investigate the impacts of China’s policies on the variability of their domestic and world prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the distributional and aggregate welfare effects. Results indicate that (a) China’s soybean price ...


Optimal Environmental Border Adjustments Under The General Agreement On Tariffs And Trade, Edward J. Balistreri, Daniel T. Kaffine, Hidemichi Yonezawa Jun 2019

Optimal Environmental Border Adjustments Under The General Agreement On Tariffs And Trade, Edward J. Balistreri, Daniel T. Kaffine, Hidemichi Yonezawa

CARD Working Papers

A country choosing to adopt border carbon adjustments based on embodied emissions is motivated by both environmental and strategic incentives. We argue that the strategic component is inconsistent with commitments under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). We extend the theory of border adjustments to neutralize the strategic incentive, and consider the remaining environmental incentive in a simplified structure. The theory supports border adjustments on carbon content that are below the domestic carbon price, because price signals sent through border adjustments inadvertently encourage consumption of emissions intensive goods in unregulated regions. The theoretic intuition is supported in our ...


Neonicotinoids In U.S. Maize: Insecticide Substitution Effects And Environmental Risk, Edward D. Perry, Giancarlo Moschini May 2019

Neonicotinoids In U.S. Maize: Insecticide Substitution Effects And Environmental Risk, Edward D. Perry, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

This study exploits a novel dataset containing more than 89,000 farm-level surveys over a 17-year period to investigate how neonicotinoid seed treatments in maize, now ubiquitous, have affected the use of other insecticides. Neonicotinoid insecticides are the most used class of insecticides in the world, but they are controversial because of their high toxicity to honeybees. In the United States, maize production accounts for the majority of neonicotinoid use, mostly as seed treatments. We find that neonicotinoids substituted for other major insecticides: plots planted with neonicotinoid- treated seeds were 52% and 47% less likely to be treated with a ...


Education Equity And Intergenerational Mobility: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Court-Ordered School Finance Reforms, Minghao Li Mar 2019

Education Equity And Intergenerational Mobility: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Court-Ordered School Finance Reforms, Minghao Li

CARD Working Papers

Starting from early seventies, court-ordered school finance reforms (SFRs) have fundamentally changed the landscape of primary and elementary education finance in the US. This paper employs SFRs as quasi-experiments to quantify the effects of education equity on intergenerational mobility within commuting zones. First, I use reduced form difference-in-difference analysis to show that 10 years of exposure to SFRs increases the average college attendance rate by about 5.2% for children with the lowest parent income. The effect of exposure to SFRs decreases with parent income and increases with the duration of exposure. Second, to directly model the causal pathways, I ...


Product Concentration And Usage: Behavioral Effects In The Glyphosate Market, Edward D. Perry, David A. Hennessy, Giancarlo Moschini Jan 2019

Product Concentration And Usage: Behavioral Effects In The Glyphosate Market, Edward D. Perry, David A. Hennessy, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

People often ignore or misunderstand information that would help them make better decisions. For products that differ by concentration level, a critical choice concerns the correct dosage rate. We study the effects of changing glyphosate product concentration levels on farmers’ glyphosate usage behavior. Glyphosate is the world’s most widely used herbicide. After glyphosate went off patent in 2000, product variants with higher concentration levels entered the market. Using detailed farmlevel glyphosate use data in U.S. corn and soybeans over the period 1998-2011, we estimate the impact of product concentration levels on glyphosate application rates. We control for prices ...


2018 Iowa State University Land Value Survey: Overview, Wendong Zhang Dec 2018

2018 Iowa State University Land Value Survey: Overview, Wendong Zhang

CARD Working Papers

Farmland represents over 80 percent of all U.S. farm assets, and is arguably often a farmer’s single largest investment item, a major source of collateral, and a key component of the farmer’s debt portfolio. Since 1950, the Iowa State University Land Value Survey has been the only data source that provides a county-level land value estimate for each of the 99 counties in Iowa. The 2018 Iowa State University Land Value Survey reported a 0.8 percent decrease to $7,264 per acre in average Iowa farmland values from November 2017 to November 2018. This modest drop ...


The 2018 Trade War: Data And Nascent General Equilibrium Analysis, Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang Dec 2018

The 2018 Trade War: Data And Nascent General Equilibrium Analysis, Minghao Li, Edward J. Balistreri, Wendong Zhang

CARD Working Papers

The year 2018 witnessed the largest trade war in decades. In March, the United States increased tariffs on aluminum and steel by 10% and 15% respectively. Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Mexico, and Turkey each retaliated with proportional tariff increases on U.S. goods. In the meantime, the trade disputes between the United States and China quickly escalated to a scale without precedent.


Firm Internal Network, Environmental Regulation, And Plant Death, Jingbo Cui, Giancarlo Moschini Oct 2018

Firm Internal Network, Environmental Regulation, And Plant Death, Jingbo Cui, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

This paper examines the role of a firm’s internal network in determining plant shutdown decisions in response to environmental regulations. Using unique plant-level data for U.S. manufacturing industries from 1990 to 2008, we find evidence that, in response to increasingly stringent environmental regulations at the county level, multi-plant firms do exercise their greater flexibility in adjusting production, relative to single-plant firms. Specifically, in regulated counties, the likelihood of a plant shutting down is higher for multi-plant firms. Moreover, we measure the firm internal network effect at the local, neighborhood, and the wider-area levels, as defined by the number ...


Do Farmers Adopt Fewer Conservation Practices On Rented Land? Evidence From Straw Retention In China, Li Gao, Wendong Zhang, Yingdan Mei, Abdoul G. Sam, Yu Song, Shuqin Jin Aug 2018

Do Farmers Adopt Fewer Conservation Practices On Rented Land? Evidence From Straw Retention In China, Li Gao, Wendong Zhang, Yingdan Mei, Abdoul G. Sam, Yu Song, Shuqin Jin

CARD Working Papers

We examine how land tenure arrangements affect Chinese crop farmers’ adoption of straw retention, a key conservation practice promoted by the Chinese government in part to curb rising air pollution. Using data from a 2016 farmer household survey covering 1,659 crop plots in Henan Province in central China, we analyze whether farmers are less likely to adopt straw retention on rented plots compared to own-contracted plots. To address the potential endogeneity of the choice of renting from others, we use an instrument exploiting the role of remittance income from household members migrated to cities in a bivariate probit model ...


Technology Adoption And The Agricultural Supply Response Function, Gil Depaula Jul 2018

Technology Adoption And The Agricultural Supply Response Function, Gil Depaula

CARD Working Papers

In this study, I exploit the recent technology-driven soy boom in Brazil to assess how the diffusion of different technologies, namely the genetically modified soy and biological nitrogen-fixing soy varieties adapted to the Brazilian savanna, change the agricultural supply response function. I use a novel panel dataset combining farm-level data for 1.5 million commercial farms from the 1996 and 2006 Brazilian agricultural census surveys to estimate the price effects on the expansion of the soy acreage. I find that the acreage response functions become increasingly elastic towards the agricultural frontier because of the existence of different technological diffusion processes ...


The Distributional Impact Of Climate Change In Brazilian Agriculture: A Ricardian Quantile Analysis With Census Data, Gil Depaula Jul 2018

The Distributional Impact Of Climate Change In Brazilian Agriculture: A Ricardian Quantile Analysis With Census Data, Gil Depaula

CARD Working Papers

The economic impact of global warming varies across firms because of differences in climate, technology, and adaptive capacity. Aggregate estimates of the average effect of warming are thus insufficient to model climate change vulnerability in developing countries. In this study, I measure the distributional effect of climate change in Brazilian agriculture by estimating the quantile and interquantile regressions of land value on climate, using agricultural census data for 490,000 commercial farms. The effect of a 1°C rise in average temperature on land values ranges from -5% for the most productive farmers located in the colder South region to ...


The Missing Benefits Of Clean Water And The Role Of Mismeasured Pollution, David A. Keiser Jun 2018

The Missing Benefits Of Clean Water And The Role Of Mismeasured Pollution, David A. Keiser

CARD Working Papers

Although the U.S. spends billions of dollars a year controlling water pollution, there is little empirical evidence of comparable benefits. This study argues that measurement error in pollution data causes benefits to be underestimated. Using upstream concentrations as instrumental variables for local concentrations, the study finds substantial benefits from reducing nutrient pollution. Instrumental variable estimates of the effects of phosphorus on recreational use are an order of magnitude larger than conventional estimates. The study uses a long-term pollution dataset from Iowa to show that this difference is consistent with estimates of measurement error in several U.S. water pollution ...


Iowa Farmland Ownership And Tenure Survey 1982–2017: A Thirty-Five Year Perspective, Wendong Zhang, Alejandro Plastina, Wendiam Sawadgo Jun 2018

Iowa Farmland Ownership And Tenure Survey 1982–2017: A Thirty-Five Year Perspective, Wendong Zhang, Alejandro Plastina, Wendiam Sawadgo

CARD Working Papers

Farmland is arguably often a farmer’s single largest investment item, a major source of collateral, and a key component of the farmer’s debt portfolio. At the macro level, the value of land and buildings represent over 80 percent of all U.S. farm assets. As a result, changes in the farmland market and the implications for farmland owners, tenants, and beginning farmers are of perennial interest to policymakers, landowners, producers, and researchers. Using a statistically representative sample of Iowa landowners in July 2017, this study provides a critical update to the Iowa Farmland Ownership and Tenure survey series ...


The Dynamics Of Supply: U.S. Corn And Soybeans In The Biofuel Era, Hyunseok Kim, Giancarlo Moschini Apr 2018

The Dynamics Of Supply: U.S. Corn And Soybeans In The Biofuel Era, Hyunseok Kim, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

We estimate U.S. corn and soybean supply responses by exploiting the large exogenous price variations associated with implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard. We focus on recent years and on the twelve Midwestern states, and estimate a system of dynamic equations that is consistent with the role of crop rotation. Corn and soybean acreages respond more in the short run than in the long run. Cross-price elasticities of acreage responses are negative and fairly large in absolute value such that, when corn and soybean prices move together, the response of total acreage allocated to these two crops is extremely ...


Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value And Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?, Wendong Zhang, Wei Zhang, Chad Hart Feb 2018

Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value And Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?, Wendong Zhang, Wei Zhang, Chad Hart

CARD Working Papers

Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the medium- and long-term as opposed to the short-term, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income ...


The Current Farm Downturn Versus The 1920s And 1980s Farm Crises: An Economic And Regulatory Comparison, Wendong Zhang, Kristine A. Tidgren Feb 2018

The Current Farm Downturn Versus The 1920s And 1980s Farm Crises: An Economic And Regulatory Comparison, Wendong Zhang, Kristine A. Tidgren

CARD Working Papers

Purpose – This paper examines the current farm economic downturn and credit restructuring by comparing it with the 1920s and 1980s farm crises from both economic and regulatory perspectives.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper closely compared critical economic and regulatory aspects of the current farm downturn with two previous farm crises in the 1920s and 1980s, and equally importantly, the golden eras that occurred before them. This study compares key aggregate statistics in land value, agricultural credit, lending regulations, and also evaluates the situations and impacts on individual farmer households by using several case studies.

Findings – We argue that there are ...


Valuing Product Innovation: Genetically Engineered Varieties In U.S. Corn And Soybeans, Federico Ciliberta, Giancarlo Moschini, Edward D. Perry Dec 2017

Valuing Product Innovation: Genetically Engineered Varieties In U.S. Corn And Soybeans, Federico Ciliberta, Giancarlo Moschini, Edward D. Perry

CARD Working Papers

We develop and estimate a discrete-choice model of differentiated products for the corn and soybean seed industry in the United States to assess the welfare impact of genetically engineered (GE) crop varieties. We use a unique dataset, spanning the period 1996-2011, that contains rich information on the adoption of GE traits. Using a two-level nested logit model, we estimate that U.S. farmers are willing to pay a significant premium for GE traits, and this value has increased over time. Over the last five years of the sample, our results imply that farmers’ average willingness to pay for glyphosate tolerance ...


The Renewable Fuel Standard In Competitive Equilibrium: Market And Welfare Effects, Giancarlo Moschini, Harvey E. Lapan, Hyunseok Kim Jun 2017

The Renewable Fuel Standard In Competitive Equilibrium: Market And Welfare Effects, Giancarlo Moschini, Harvey E. Lapan, Hyunseok Kim

CARD Working Papers

We construct a tractable multi-market equilibrium model designed to evaluate alternative biofuel policies. The model integrates the US agricultural sector with the energy sector and it explicitly considers both US ethanol and biodiesel production. The model provides a structural representation of the renewable fuel standard (RFS) policies, and it uses the arbitrage conditions defining the core value of renewable identification number (RIN) prices to identify the relevant competitive equilibrium conditions. The model is parameterized, based on elasticities and technical coefficients from the literature, to represent observed 2015 data. The model is simulated to analyze alternative scenarios, including: repeal of the ...


Land Quality Perceptions In Expert Opinion Surveys: Evidence From Iowa, Wendong Zhang, Michael D. Duffy Jan 2017

Land Quality Perceptions In Expert Opinion Surveys: Evidence From Iowa, Wendong Zhang, Michael D. Duffy

CARD Working Papers

While many opinion-based surveys ask land values for different land quality classes, little is known how survey respondents perceive the land quality. Using the 2015 Iowa Land Value Survey, this article examines how respondents perceive land quality in their responses to land value questions. Our results show agricultural professionals seem to perceive land quality with respect to specific regions, and high, medium and low land quality should be interpreted locally within a crop reporting district. This case study suggests that it is difficult to generalize uniform yield or soil productivity index ranges for land quality questions in all opinion-based surveys.


Heterogeneous Preferences For Water Quality Attributes: A Discrete Choice Experiment Of Lake Erie Recreational Anglers, Wendong Zhang, Brent L. Sohngen Jan 2017

Heterogeneous Preferences For Water Quality Attributes: A Discrete Choice Experiment Of Lake Erie Recreational Anglers, Wendong Zhang, Brent L. Sohngen

CARD Working Papers

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced a record-setting harmful algal bloom (HAB), posing significant risks to ecosystem services, including its $1.5 billion sport fishing industry. Using a mail survey of 3,000 Ohio recreational anglers and a choice experiment, this article provides the first empirical evidence in the US to link HABs to damages to Great Lakes recreational anglers. We account for the heterogeneity in anglers’ preferences using various discrete choice models, including random parameters logit, latent class model, scaled logit, and generalized multinomial logit models. The results suggest that some anglers have stronger preferences for reducing the impacts of ...


Intellectual Property Rights And The Ascent Of Proprietary Innovation In Agriculture, Matthew S. Clancy, Giancarlo Moschini Jan 2017

Intellectual Property Rights And The Ascent Of Proprietary Innovation In Agriculture, Matthew S. Clancy, Giancarlo Moschini

CARD Working Papers

Biological innovations in agriculture did not enjoy protection by formal intellectual property rights (IPRs) for a long time, but the recent trend has been one of considerable broadening and strengthening of these rights. We document the nature of these IPRs and their evolution, and provide an assessment of their impacts on innovation. We integrate elements of the institutional history of plant IPRs with a discussion of the relevant economic theory and a review of applicable empirical evidence. Throughout, we highlight how the experience of biological innovation mirrors, or differs from, the broader literature on IPRs and innovation. We conclude with ...