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Articles 1 - 30 of 129
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Tariffs, Saving And The Current Account, Charles Engel, Kenneth Kletzer
Tariffs, Saving And The Current Account, Charles Engel, Kenneth Kletzer
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
The Impact Of Improved Nutrition On Labor Productivity And Human Resource Development: An Economic Perspective, John Strauss
The Impact Of Improved Nutrition On Labor Productivity And Human Resource Development: An Economic Perspective, John Strauss
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Analyzing The Determinants Of The External Debt Repayment Problems Of Ldc’S: Econometric Modelling Using A Panelset Of Data, Vassilis Argyrou Hajivassiliou
Analyzing The Determinants Of The External Debt Repayment Problems Of Ldc’S: Econometric Modelling Using A Panelset Of Data, Vassilis Argyrou Hajivassiliou
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
A Guide To Public Sector Debt And Deficit, Willem H. Buiter
A Guide To Public Sector Debt And Deficit, Willem H. Buiter
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Auction Theory, Paul R. Milgrom
Auction Theory, Paul R. Milgrom
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper discusses two central questions: Why do auction institutions continue to be so popular after thousands of years? and What accounts for particular details, like the popularity of sealed bid and ascending-bid auctions?
Promotion And Mandatory Retirement, Steve Stern
Promotion And Mandatory Retirement, Steve Stern
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Macroeconomic Policy Design In An Interdependent World Economy: An Analysis Of Three Contingencies, Willem H. Buiter
Macroeconomic Policy Design In An Interdependent World Economy: An Analysis Of Three Contingencies, Willem H. Buiter
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
The Uses, Value And Limitation Of Game Theoretic Methods In Defense Analysis, Martin Shubik
The Uses, Value And Limitation Of Game Theoretic Methods In Defense Analysis, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The central contribution of game theory to defense analysis has been a language for the understanding of how to formulate and study strategic or cross-purposes optimization in situations involving two or more actors. It is suggested here in this discussion that two fundamentally different classes of application of game theory to problems in defense have emerged. The first is the application of two-person zero sum game theory to military, primarily tactical situations which for the purposes at hand can be reasonably well modeled in this manner. The second is the application of two or more person nonconstant sum game theory …
On Finitely Repeated Games And Pseudo-Nash Equilibria, Chien-Fu Chou, John Geanakoplos
On Finitely Repeated Games And Pseudo-Nash Equilibria, Chien-Fu Chou, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we propose a pseudo-Nash equilibrium for N -person games in which very simply we allow play in the last period to be arbitrary, but otherwise it must conform to the (perfect) Nash optimality criterion.
Walrasian Indeterminacy And Keynesian Macroeconomics, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis
Walrasian Indeterminacy And Keynesian Macroeconomics, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Overlapping generations models with or without production or a portfolio demand for money display a fundamental indeterminacy. Expectations matter; and they are not, in the short run, constrained by the hypotheses of agent optimization, rational expectations, and market clearing. No short run policy analysis is possible without some explicit understanding of how agents expect the economy to respond to the policy. In this framework of perfect foresight and market clearing prices, it is possible to make Keynesian assumptions about the rigidity of money wages and the exogeneity of “animal spirits” of investors, to use the standard IS-LM apparatus, and to …
Comparative Statics And Local Indeterminacy In Olg Economies: An Application Of The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem, John Geanakoplos, Donald J. Brown
Comparative Statics And Local Indeterminacy In Olg Economies: An Application Of The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem, John Geanakoplos, Donald J. Brown
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This study is an effort to give a simple measure of the local size of the equilibrium set of OLG economies in which there may be more than one good and more than one consumer per period, and in which the generations may differ across time.
Economy: Announcement Of [G5] Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors (The Plaza Agreement), Margaret Thatcher
Economy: Announcement Of [G5] Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors (The Plaza Agreement), Margaret Thatcher
Documents
Announcement the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Plaze Accord)
Schooling, Information And Non-Market Productivity: Contraceptive Use And Its Effectiveness, Mark Rosenzweig, T. Paul Schultz
Schooling, Information And Non-Market Productivity: Contraceptive Use And Its Effectiveness, Mark Rosenzweig, T. Paul Schultz
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: Ii. Theory, Donald W.K. Andrews
Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: Ii. Theory, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper extends the Pearson chi-square testing method to non-dynamic parametric econometric models, in particular, to models with covariates. The paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null and local alternatives, when the test statistic is based on data-dependent random cells of a general form, and on an arbitrary asymptotically normal estimator. These results are attained by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the …
Fractional Matrix Calculus And The Distribution Of Multivariate Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips
Fractional Matrix Calculus And The Distribution Of Multivariate Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Fractional matrix operator methods are introduced as a new tool of distribution theory for use in multivariate analysis and econometrics. Earlier work by the author on this operational calculus is reviewed and to illustrate the use of these methods we give an exact distribution theory for a general class of tests in the multivariate linear model. This distribution theory unifies and generalizes previously known results, including those for the standard F statistic in linear regression, for Hotelling’s T 2 test and for Hotelling’s generalized T -2 test. We also provide a simple and novel derivation of conventional asymptotic theory as …
Neoclassical Theory In America: J. B. Clark And Fisher, James Tobin
Neoclassical Theory In America: J. B. Clark And Fisher, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The intellectual breakthroughs that mark the neoclassical revolution in economic analysis occurred in Europe around 1870. The next two decades witnessed lively debates in which the new theory more or less absorbed or was absorbed in the classical tradition that preceded and provoked it. In the 1890s, according to Joseph A. Schumpeter (1954, p. 754) there emerged “a large expanse of common ground and … a feeling of repose, both of which created, in the superficial observer, an impression of finality — the finality of a Greek temple that spreads its perfect lines against a cloudless sky.” Of course the …
The Many Properties Of Money: A Strategic Market Game Analysis, Martin Shubik
The Many Properties Of Money: A Strategic Market Game Analysis, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Among the major properties of a money are that it can serve as (1) a numeraire, (2) a means of exchange, (3) a store of value, and (4) a source of liquidity. Among the lesser properties are that it should be easy to transport and identify, it should be durable, easily divisible, hard to counterfeit and easy to store. A possibly desirable property is that it is an anonymous “bearer instrument,” but the price of anonymity is that it is hard to recover if it is stolen. A personal check which is bank money can be stopped and is more …
Multiple Time Series Regression With Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Steven N. Durlauf
Multiple Time Series Regression With Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Steven N. Durlauf
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a general asymptotic theory of regression for processes which are integrated of order one. The theory includes vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions amongst integrated processes that are driven by innovation sequences which allow for a wide class of weak dependence and heterogeneity. The models studied cover cointegrated systems and quite general linear simultaneous equations systems with contemporaneous regressor-error correlation and serially correlated errors. Problems of statistical testing in vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions with integrated processes are also studied. It is shown that the asymptotic theory for conventional tests involves major departures from classical theory and raises …
Asymptotic Results For Generalized Wald Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotic Results For Generalized Wald Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note presents conditions under which a quadratic form based on a g-inverted weighting matrix converges to a chi-square distribution as the sample size goes to infinity. Subject to fairly weak underlying conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition is given for this result. The result is of interest, because it is needed to establish asymptotic significance levels and local power properties of generalized Wald tests (i.e., Wald tests with singular limiting covariance matrices). Included in this class of tests are Hausman specification tests and various goodness of fit tests, among others. The necessary and sufficient condition is relevant to procedures …
The Term Structure Of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation, John Y. Campbell, Richard H. Clarida
The Term Structure Of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation, John Y. Campbell, Richard H. Clarida
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is an empirical investigation of the predictability and comovement of risk premia in the term structure of Euromarket interest rates. We show that variables which have been used as proxies for risk premia on uncovered foreign asset positions also predict excess returns in Euromarket term structures, while variables which have been used as proxies for risk premia in the term structure also predict excess returns on taking uncovered foreign asset positions. These findings suggest that risk premia move together. We test formally the hypothesis that risk premia on uncovered 3-month EuroDM and Eurosterling deposits move in proportion to …
Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: I. Introduction And Applications, Donald W.K. Andrews
Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: I. Introduction And Applications, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper and its sequel, Andrews [4], extend the Pearson chi-square testing method to non-dynamic parametric econometric models, in particular, models with covariates. The present paper introduced the test and discusses a wide variety of applications. Andrews [4] establishes the asymptotic properties of the test, by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the parametric model that are of interest. In the event of rejection of the null hypothesis …
Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts And Applications, William D. Nordhaus
Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts And Applications, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The question of forecasting accuracy is, of course, one that has been the subject of numerous investigations over the last two decades. The present study contributes to this line of research in two ways. First, we introduce a new concept, called “forecast efficiency,” that measures the extent to which information is incorporated into forecasts. This concept is closely related to concepts of efficiency used in the analysis of stock and other financial markets. The paper proves two readily testable propositions about efficient forecasts. Second, the empirical part of the study examines forecast efficiency by looking at forecast revisions (“fixed-horizon forecasts”), …
A Theory Of Hierarchies Based On Limited Managerial Attention, John Geanakoplos, Paul R. Milgrom
A Theory Of Hierarchies Based On Limited Managerial Attention, John Geanakoplos, Paul R. Milgrom
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Our purpose in this paper is to investigate the economics of managerial organizations by focusing on the decision problem of management. Ours is a “team theory” analysis, that is, it ignores the problem of conflicting objectives among managers and focuses instead on the problem of coordinating the decisions of several imperfectly informed actors. However, unlike classical team theory, we concentrate on the choice by managers of what to know, as well as what to do, and we allow the possibility that bounded rationality limits the managers’ ability to understand subtle messages.
What Influences Patters Of Women’S Work In Rural Bangladesh?, Shahidur R. Khandker
What Influences Patters Of Women’S Work In Rural Bangladesh?, Shahidur R. Khandker
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Sections And Extensions Of Concave Functions, Roger Howe
Sections And Extensions Of Concave Functions, Roger Howe
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Asymptotic Expansions In Nonstationary Vector Autoregressions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Asymptotic Expansions In Nonstationary Vector Autoregressions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the statistical properties of vector autoregressions (VAR’s) for quite general multiple time series which are integrated of order one. Functional central limit theorems are given for multivariate partial sums of weakly dependent innovations and these are applied to yield first order asymptotics in nonstationary VAR’s. Characteristic and cumulant functionals for generalized random processes are introduced as a means of developing a refinement of central limit theory on function spaces. The theory is used to find asymptotic expansions of the regression coefficients in nonstationary VAR’s under very general conditions. The results are specified to the scalar case and …
Existence, Regularity, And Constrained Suboptimality Of Competitive Allocations When The Asset Market Is Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis
Existence, Regularity, And Constrained Suboptimality Of Competitive Allocations When The Asset Market Is Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Let assets be denominated in an a priori specified numeraire. Whether or not the asset is complete, a competitive equilibrium exists as long as arbitrage is possible when assets are free. Generically, the set of competitive equilibria is finite, and the equilibrium prices and allocations in the commodity spot markets are uniquely determined by the asset allocation in a neighborhood of a competitive equilibrium. If the asset market is incomplete, a competitive equilibrium allocation is generically constrained suboptimal : there exists an arbitrarily small reallocation of the existing assets, which leads to a Pareto improvement in welfare when prices and …
Women’S Role In Household Productive Activities And Fertility In Bangladesh, Shahidur R. Khandker
Women’S Role In Household Productive Activities And Fertility In Bangladesh, Shahidur R. Khandker
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
School Expenditures And Enrollments, 1960-1980: The Effects Of Income, Price And Population Growth, T. Paul Schultz
School Expenditures And Enrollments, 1960-1980: The Effects Of Income, Price And Population Growth, T. Paul Schultz
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
On The Performance Of Least Squares In Linear Regression With Undefined Error Means, Donald W.K. Andrews
On The Performance Of Least Squares In Linear Regression With Undefined Error Means, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers the linear regression model with multiple stochastic regressors, intercept, and errors that have undefined means. This model is of interest from a robustness perspective as a polar case. Generally, least squares estimators are inconsistent in this context. It is shown, however, that this inconsistency is restricted to the estimation of the intercept, if the regressors are highly variable. Rates of convergence of the least squares slope estimators are determined, and are shown to exceed the standard rate, n -1/2 , in certain contexts. The results place no restrictions on the temporal dependence of the errors, and require …