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The President's Party At The Midterm: An Aggregate And Individual-Level Analysis Of Seat Loss And Vote Choice In U.S. House Elections, David Macdonald

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of midterm U.S. House elections using a multi-level research design. At the aggregate-level, multiple regression analysis is used to examine the variables that affect seat loss for the president’s party. This integrates, updates and extends the extant literature of the topic, and offers a means of explaining and predicting seat losses by the president’s party in the U.S. House. To further probe the findings at the aggregatelevel, the thesis develops a pooled cross-sectional model of individual-level vote choice in midterm U.S. House elections using data from the American National Election Studies (1982- 2002) and …