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Estimating Risk Of Failure Of Engineering Structures Using Predictive Likelihood, Colin C. Caprani, A. Bordallo-Ruiz, E. J. O'Brien

Conference papers

It has been common engineering practice to define characteristic values for loading and capacity of structures in order to assess the structural capacity of existing structures. This approach, yet practical and intuitive, lead to the comparison of deterministic values (characteristic values) that had to represent all the variability of the problem and is considered to be conservative, as usually loading is overestimated and capacity underestimated, yielding to calculations with high safety margins for the extreme events. Probabilistics methods have tried to overcom e this limitation by computing the overall probability of failure (Pf) for the lifetime of the structure, taking …