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Predicting U.S. Jet Fighter Aircraft Introductions From 1944 To 1982: A Dogfight Between Regression And Tfdea, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert R. Harmon
Predicting U.S. Jet Fighter Aircraft Introductions From 1944 To 1982: A Dogfight Between Regression And Tfdea, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert R. Harmon
Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA to a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and Martino’s multiple regression model, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using the first flights of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using …
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps For Engineering And Technology Management: What Works In Practice?, Antonie J. Jetter
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps For Engineering And Technology Management: What Works In Practice?, Antonie J. Jetter
Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Due to a lack of available data, many early planning decisions in engineering and technology management have to be based on experts' opinions and their qualitative statements about evolving technologies, markets and general business environments. Several authors have suggested the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to analytically support these decisions with simulation models that can cope with qualitative information. However, only little practice experience is documented. Based on multiple case studies and an extensive literature review, the paper reviews the state-of-the-art of FCM-practice and introduces a six-step guideline for practitioners and researchers who wish to apply FCMs to real-world …